Joint heads of state?

Don’t laugh but Gay Mitchell may have a point about joint heads of state in Northern Ireland. Here’s what he said a while back…

Discussing a future role for the Irish presidency and UK monarchy in Northern Ireland, Mr Mitchell said: “What sort of thing could you do without diminishing the role of the President of Ireland under the Constitution?

“What could happen for example in Northern Ireland? Would it be possible to do what they do in Andorra and have joint heads of state in Northern Ireland in the context of a united Ireland?”

Mr Mitchell said that “ if we are really sincere about wanting to end partition, what sort of relations are we going to have with Britain”?

I believe that’s the crucial question, although the question works the other way too, beyond economics, that Republicans have to come to grips with. I’ve already raised this on the CLR before, suggesting, for example, that some of the compromises that may be necessary won’t be to the liking of everyone. Possible representation in the Lords? Flying of the two flags in the North side by side? Other East/West, or rather East/North East political links?

But this is what has to be tussled with in order to begin to define a future where we move beyond the Good Friday/Belfast Agreement to something more expansive, more… radical. A strange sort of radicalism some will, rightly, say if it incorporates a continued acknowledgement of a monarchy, but given the balance within the North the idea that that expression of identity of a million or so people can be jettisoned is implausible.

But in a way isn’t it intriguing how Mitchell sees this as happening in the wake of a united Ireland, whereas I’d see it as happening in advance of that UI. Actually, interesting that Mitchell would, even simply musing, express ideas that run further than the GFA. That may be good, or that may be bad.

Would this fly in the UK? I have absolutely no idea. Though it’s worth noting that as recently as 2001 the UK put forward the notion of shared sovereignty with Spain of Gibraltar.

But what is a pity is how rhetorical all this seems in light of the now sustained attacks by Fine Gael on an actual candidate from the North..

The interview with Harry McGee in the Irish Times on Monday gets it about right in that respect when it notes:

The major party in Government obviously doesn’t agree with the last sentiment. Yesterday Minister for the Environment Phil Hogan launched a nasty attack all but describing McGuinness as a terrorist who would alienate foreign investment if elected president.

In a follow-up tweet, Government chief whip Paul Kehoe bludgeoned in with a tweet on McGuinness’s offer to forgo most of his salary. “Why would you need your salary when you have the proceeds of the Northern Bank at your disposal?”

The attacks from such prominent party members have blown open any semblance of acceptance by Fine Gael of the concept of a Sinn Féin president; and any claim that McGuinnness’s good working relationship with Enda Kenny extends from North-South relations into domestic southern politics.

The TV3 debate saw precisely how pointed the attacks have become. Interesting, if only because Eoghan Harris in the Sunday Independent this week had moved on from his championing of Norris [Harris never been shy to jump another train as the need arose] to judge from his comments at the weekend…

And it seems like FG – according to him ‘standing up to the IRA is what FG is for’, an interesting thesis if one looks back at the historical genesis of FG, have heeded his message.

This may well be because of the latest polling data, more of which soon, which notes that:

When people were asked who they would vote for if the presidential election was held tomorrow, the figures (when undecided voters were excluded) compared to the last Irish Times poll on July 19th were: Michael D Higgins 23 per cent (up five points); Sean Gallagher 20 per cent (up seven points); Martin McGuinness 19 per cent (not in last poll); Mary Davis 12 per cent (no change); David Norris 11 per cent (down 14 points); Gay Mitchell 9 per cent (down 11 points); and Dana Rosemary Scallon 6 per cent (not in last poll).

9% for the governing party is lamentable. FG aren’t even holding onto their core vote here and that’s – no doubt – why they’re trying to consolidate it. I’m not sure this works, and I’m fairly sure that this points to what was discussed here recently, the reality that the electorate remains much much more volatile than was thought previously.

Anyhow, all this seems an odd way to try to cement reconciliation on this island – not least because McGuinness is unlikely, on current polling, to win the contest. There’s another point too. However acceptable SF becomes it seems equally unlikely that its appeal will be broad enough to encompass many FG voters – whereas it has and most likely will do further damage to Fianna Fáil.