Dublin West and more leaflets from the By (or Bye) Election October 18, 2011
Posted by irishelectionliterature in Uncategorized.Tags: 2011 Dublin West by-election
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Harry McGee had a decent analysis of Dublin West in today’s Irish Times.
He made a lot of sense in arguing tha Labours Pat Nulty was the Favourite to win. It was though his final paragraph that stood out regarding Fianna Fails David McGuinness
.. McGuinness was Fianna Fáil’s second candidate in the general election and amassed only 660 votes, albeit in the context of a nationwide meltdown. The 26-year-old is a personable and enthusiastic candidate, a music teacher from a working class background. On a canvas with party leader Micheál Martin it was clear that while an outsider to win, Fianna Fáil’s performance here will not be a disaster. Much of the raw anger towards the party has dissipated.
McGuinness is likely to position himself strongly for the next general election.
Has the anger really dissapated?
Whilst the Presidential Election has been making the headlines, Fianna Fail have been throwing the proverbial kitchen sink at Dublin West. A number of friends live in the constituency and Fianna Fail are everywhere. The Gallagher surge has also put extra pep in their step.
So what would be a success for Fianna Fail here? Running David McGuinness and Brian Lenihan they got 16.59% in February. They would be delighted to see that again given that Lenihan had quite a personal vote. Given the location of the candidates I think they’ll break 10% but had McGuinness been a Castlenock based candidate he may have done better. Still anything in the region of 15% and hes doing well. We might also get a glimpse if Fianna Fail are still as transfer toxic.
So following up on a previous post concerning Fianna Fail and Labours by Election Leaflets it’s back to the matter of more candidates leaflets and how the message has changed since the election.
Before that is the spelling…..
Eithne Loftus and David McGuinness are standing in a “Bye-Election” whilst Ruth Coppinger and Paul Donnelly are standing in a “By-Election”.
I was amazed looking at the leaflet from Fine Gaels Eithne Loftus. Needless to say there is no five point plan, in fact there is nothing national on it, just some local interest and profile of the candidate and a message from Leo Varadkar. Not a word about achievements in Government or the like.
For Ruth Coppinger the change from Joe Higgins February material is that (as mentioned by Harry McGee) Connolly Hospital is an issue as is the new Household Tax. Otherwise the message is roughly the same in attacking the austerity measures whilst bailing out the banks.
Sinn Feins Paul Donnelly also lists Connolly Hospital as well as attacking the austerity measures of the current government. So the government has changed but the mesage has stayed roughly the same.
The Green Partys Roderic O’Gorman concentrates on Jobs and the Green Economy, Job Creation, Education and Political Reform. Very similar to the February Election.
The Cedar Lounge Revolution 
With Labour and Fine Gael adopting most of Fianna Fail’s old policies, it seems likely that some of the anger will have morphed from an anti-FF feeling to a general anti-political party feeling. The balance between the importance of the candidate and the party will probably shift accordingly, which would be to FF’s benefit.
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McGee is an FF/green, judge his comment in that light.
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I spent three days canvassing in Dublin West last week and the attitude towards FF is pretty much as bad as it was at the general election. Lots of ‘McGuinness was round but I chased him out’ kind of stuff on the doorsteps. Not quite as vitriolic as the anti-FF attitude in Feb but not much better either, particularly as this was in an area that used to be a Lenihan stronghold.
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I wonder if the election of Nulty would provide the grain around which some could coalesce to try to talk some sense into the leadership? I was told hat before the bye-election, he’d been organising meetings of interested party members on policy issues, including getting Michael Taft in to talk about a better budgetary and recovery strategy.
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Not a hope – and Nulty would be a good little boy and do what he was told by Kenny and Gilmore
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Not a hope.
Nice try by Nulty though to try to con people into believing it’s possible.
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If Nulty was anything more than a loyal stooge then he wouldn’t have got the nomination. The idea that there is any kind of left-wing to the Labour party beyond a few isolated windmill-tippers is ludicrous.
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“I wonder if the election of Nulty would provide the grain around which some could coalesce to try to talk some sense into the leadership? I was told hat before the bye-election, he’d been organising meetings of interested party members on policy issues.”
Trouble is, the leadership can just say “We are the 90%”. That’s the size of the majority of Labour members who voted in favour of the current government programme, knowing exactly what it entailed.
The Labour leadership is well past being talked around into a left-wing position, even a mildly social-democratic one, and their position is unassailable for the next five years – even if he voted against the government on every single issue, it wouldn’t even begin to make a dent in the coalition’s majority, it would just be a minor irritation to Gilmore who can rely on a solid block of loyal right-wing Labour TDs who will support austerity come what may. A pity, but there it is – no point deluding ourselves about what might be possible. There’s no significant left-wing current in the Labour Party, either in the parliamentary party or the membership, just isolated people who can’t affect the general direction of the party.
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I agree on every point, Ed, but it’s worth pointing out that “even if he voted against the government on every single issue” is a little irrelevant, given that the bould Patrick has already repeatedly said that whatever his misgivings he will vote as he’s told to vote on every issue.
In a way, I actually have more sympathy for the clown Fine Gael have nominated. At least she believes in the malevolent right wing policies she’ll be voting for. Nulty knows that government policy is evil on every level but he’ll dutifully raise his hand for it anyway.
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“Nulty knows that government policy is evil on every level”
I doubt very much that he does.
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Nutly would be a pain for Labour, Ruth being elected could see the ULA implode – vote Nutly
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Best laugh I have had in a while
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[…] foot of IELB’s post here I was thinking only the other day how low key the Dublin West byelection is. Hardly surprising, […]
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Looking now in hindsight, McGuinness’s first preference percentage of 21.7% was highly impressive in that by-election and an over all 2nd placed finish.
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