Speaking of elections… open thread… October 27, 2011
Posted by WorldbyStorm in Irish Politics, The Left.trackback
I’ve never seen an election I didn’t like, if only for vicarious reasons, and this Presidential election is no different. Clearly it’s up to everyone to decide if there are candidates that they can vote for. And it’s readily understandable that some given the choice on offer will balk. But that said it’s also understandable why some will find it no problem at all getting out to vote.
In truth this has been one of the more interesting elections for me. In part because although I have a horse or two in the race, sort of, I don’t feel that it matters as much as a general election. So there’s a little bit of detachment. But that’s not the same as saying it doesn’t matter at all. it’s worth reflecting on the point that all elections have political ramifications. A moment’s thought will indicate why. They offer support to those who can seem like they’re on the winning side, they can sometimes appear to sideline those who aren’t involved and they can demoralise those who have lost. What the ramifications of this contest are remain to be seen, but they will exist and in part shape the future environment.
There’s also the Dublin West by-election where it’s hardly a surprise that some of us here will be hoping that the most clearly left wing candidate with a chance of winning will do so. Call that a protest vote and you may be right. It won’t change the Dáil arithmetic in any substantial way but if politics is communications then let’s call it sending a message. But again on the day, on the ground, people will follow their own line.
It’s also a day of referendums. Again these are tricky issues. I’ve heard a range of arguments on the Inquiries one in particular that leave me very divided as to how to vote. But maybe that’s how it should be. There aren’t any easy answers in life. And that means there’s no inevitability, which is one of the reasons why although electoral politics can have negative aspects for left activism it can also be a timely reminder that things don’t happen unless they’re worked towards.
I’m not going to get to vote until this evening but all that said opinions or observations from the polling places would be very welcome.
The Cedar Lounge Revolution 
I wasn’t going to vote, but as this is my last hoorah, I’ll give it a lash.
Pres: anyone but SG or Dana (Higgins no less than #2)
Referendums: fecked if you do, fecked if you don’t comes to mind.
Giving govt any extended powers is probably not a good idea. This is especially true during the modern era where the MSM plays such a large role in molding the opinion of such a large bloc of so-called floating voters. Shallow perception drives political choice these days and giving the likes of our po-faced, self righteous taoisceach the opportunity to kick off public witch hunts can only lead to trouble.
Both proposals should be returned to the electorate after proper framing to ensure politicians can’t use the vehicles for their own devices, and after proper and prolonged debate has occurred.
Pigs can fly.
I’d vote for the pig if I could.
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Just back from the local polling station. 55 votes cast so far apparently, the first at 7:07am, and steady enough since then.
Norris 1, Higgins 2, no further preferences.
No to both referenda(ums).
Meanwhile on the bigger stage, Greece defaults on 50% of it’s debt and the EFSF expands to €1trillion (or is it €1.4trillion?). Worth putting the German concerns about the EFSF in context, that even at a trillion their exposure (€12k per German) is still less than one third of the current Irish debt (€38k per person). It ain’t over yet.
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Interesting enough the market sharks now appear to be turning their attention to the eastern european EU countries that are not in the euro. Because many of the non-eurozone banks are owned by banks from euro countries their belief is that the EFSF will dry up credit throughout Europe leaving the non-euro countries vulnerable to attack and by doing this indirectly hit the eurozone banks causing further crisis that they can profit from.
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Just voted iin North Strand. Maybe 20 others there at the same time. Was told it’s been busy enough there this morning.
Wonder who benefits most from a high turnout? Hard to tell on the Presidency but suspect it’ll help with a Yes on the referendums (unfortunately)
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Just back from scrawling abuse on my ballot at lunchtime. Polling station looked busy enough.
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The CLR community respectfully requests that you share with us the full details of said abuse, MP.
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🙂
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Don’t know how you managed it if the pencils were as blunt as the one I was using.
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I brought my own. Really.
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Will keep that in mind for the next publicity stunt referendum.
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[…] Speaking of elections? open thread? 07:46 Thu Oct 27, 2011 | WorldbyStorm […]
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North Strand quiet in the afternoon according to the people at the polling place.
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Stanhope Street quiet both times I was there (not voting twice though!)
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😉 Say nothing…
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Being serious for a moment, is there an exit poll.
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Apparently not.
Also, it’s hard to remember since this is only the third presidential election I’ve voted in, but, because it’s a national poll, there won’t – I think – be local declarations: all the count centres will send their totals to Dublin and then a national first count total will be announced, with eliminations to follow. And then back to the count centres – which will mean, possibly, that candidates who did well in some areas will be eliminated at that count before candidates who did less well locally……
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And I just found out it may not be counted fully until Saturday!
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Interesting to see if we get decent tallies, given that there are *only* three political party organisations officially involved, and for one of those -FG – its such a lost cause, its hard to see them bothering overmuch.
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That’s a great point. I mean it’s one thing to say Mitchell is probably sub 10 per cent but another again for that to be fact.
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I think it’ll be along the lines of the referendums where, although the final result is announced nationally, the results are also announced locally.
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Just voted in Dublin 15, polling station is fairly busy and it should be with a by-election here.
I also solved the mystery (for someone dim like me) of the Bible being on the tables at elections, they are for voters to swear on, if their identification is challenged. I was amused by this, being non religious and I also wonder what happens if you have a non-Christian religious belief…
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Never noticed the Bible there in all my time voting. I presume if you ain’t Christian, you just tell them that and you can swear without the Bible. That’s what I did when I was called to swear on the Bible as a member of a jury. Promptly followed by an objection from one side or other, so no jury duty for me. In fairness, they objected to a good few Christians as well.
Of course the Bible shouldn’t be involved at all but that’s another day’s work.
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Northside, any idea when by election result will be in? Thanks.
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I recently appeared as a witness at an Employment Tribunal. The clerk asks beforehand if you want to swear or affirm, and if you choose to swear (as my colleague did) you are asked which holy book you would like.
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And that was in the UK Michael, no?
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Polling station opposite Lucan Superquinn busy at 7. People shopping and voting on way home from work. ‘A lot of people not bothering to take the referendum voting paper’ said one of the women behind the desk.
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Wow… that’s interesting. Not sure what to make of it.
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Funny enough I heard people complaining that there should have been a few lines on the referendum paper explaining what they were abour or even which one was which. It was pretty underwhelmingly promoted, I didn’t see get literature in the post and all we had on television was those excruciating ads which made a joke out of the whole thing. For what it’s worth I thought people seemed unusually animated about the election down here, more so than in the general election though that’s because we normally have a very dull contest for that.
Lots of people talking about Gallagher on Frontline which I don’t think bodes well for him, i had the feeling he;s been punished not so much for the substance of the accusation but because he handled it so badly. Basically his USP was that he was tvery good on telly and then he turned out not to be. Think people perceived the sooap opera arc of him being undone at the last second on telly. If it had gone on much longer I think Norris was making a bit of a comeback. Anyway, good luck to Ruth Coppinger.
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Shockingly poor the stuff issued explaining the referendums, I thought.
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I wrote away to FG, FF and Labour looking for leaflets on the Referendum. Only FG sent me stuff .
I dont think FF or Labour produced any material on it and I dont think other political parties did either (although Ruth Coppinger did mention it in one of her leaflets).
If you think of the money spent by Labour on the Presidential campaign surely they could have spent some of it on a few referendum leaflets.
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I voted yes for both referendums but have sympathy for the view that the government actually don’t deserve to get them through because they made no effort.
Referendums tend to be a struggle for governments, for example the loss of the first Nice vote when there probably was a broad pro-Europe majority there to be had. I wonder if this is because they are a nightmare scenario for the Irish politician, a creature who generally wants to be on all sides at once. In a referendum you have to come down on one side or the other so what most politicians usually do is virtually abstain. FF stayed out of the referendum campaign so they can claim a victory when the inquiry one loses, Labour so they can blame the defeat on FG and brief the press to that effect. There’s such government timidity when it comes to referendums in general that I almost agree with a friend of mine who reckoned that if the likes of SPUC put forward an amendment declaring sex outside marriage to be illegal it would probably win because very few politicians would like to be on record as condoning this regrettable activity.
On which subject it will be interesting to see how Dana goes. If she gets the predicted trouncing it might at least stop politicians from using the presence of a huge silent moral minority out there in the badlands as an excuse for shilly shallying on legislation for gay marriage and abortion.
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@Joe It was. Sorry, should have said. On the other hand, the rules for Ireland are interesting:
http://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/justice/witnesses/the_procedure_for_being_a_witness.html
Elsewhere, it says that Christians get the New Testament, Jews the Old Testament, and everybody else affirms:
http://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/justice/civil_law/commissioners_for_oaths.html
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IIRC there’s a book called Stringer on Oaths and it has all kinds of oaths that are acceptable in courts for different religions and none. I think the Shinto (or another oriental religion) oath involves the smashing of a cup.
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Just back from voting. Very busy in Mountview (herself) and a bit quieter in Huntstown (me). No need to go further than a Number 1 there.
Voted the same way as LATC in the presidential. Lesser evilism/bourgeois deviationism – take your pick.
A Yes and a NO in the referendum. All kind of everything for the day that’s in it.
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Never so unenthusiastic going down to cast my vote.
Decent crowd down at the polling station in D 16. Looked like a big turnout in Knocklyon as polling station traffic there held up my bus for 10 minutes or so.
Rumour on Twitter that RTE are doing an exit poll
Oh and my eleven year old announced to me that he will be able to vote at the next presidential elections, whilst my 7 year old is holding an election with her teddies over the weekend. I’ve to take pictures of the teddies and make a ballot paper as well as leaflets for each 🙂
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Cool. My 3.5 year old came along to the polling place and when asked did she want to vote by the staff announced ‘No!’.
I had to explain she’s essentially anti democracy.
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#OccupyBalamory ?
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“I’ve to take pictures of the teddies and make a ballot paper as well as leaflets for each”
Looking forward to seeing them on the IEL blog 🙂
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That’s a great idea… Just for the craic.
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I’ll post them up when they are finished. I suspect there will be rather a lot of candidates , not sure yet if they will be running for parties or not. Anyway a busy weekend ahead for me 🙂
Kind of thrilled shes taken an interest though 🙂
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It’s not from the ground she got it anyway 🙂
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First tallies appear to have it for MDH already – with obvious health warnings. Funniest is that in Blackrock, Co. Louth – SGs hometown, MDH is leading 2:1
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Oh sweet irony.
But the fickleness of the TV celebrity vote, scary.
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BTW, LATC, I have a long answer to the ‘post-nationalism’ thing, but not a chance that I’ll have the concentration for it today.
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Looking forward to it. As long as it doesn’t involve any Hegel!
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SoS, LaTC. Is that Reading Group on Marx still going? And are you allowed go without reading any of it but just to hear you lot who have read it, talking about it?
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Joe,
Yes it is still going, there were 6 at the last get together, up from 4 at the first. It’s absolutely to be welcomed that more people would become involved and I think it is inevitable in any group that there will be differing levels of active/passive participation, and different levels of background knowledge which frame their immediate understanding of the text. I’ve found myself struggling and the inputs from SonOfStan, RosencrantzIsDead, MarkP, and others with real names, has all been very helpful. I would think though that at least actually attempting to read the text would be a reasonable request to make of participants, but attempts may not necessarily lead to successful outcomes of course 🙂
If you’re on for it the next meeting is next Thursday. Drop a line to SoS at the email (grundrisse.dublin_at_gmail.com) and he’ll sort you out with arrangements I’m sure.
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Thanks LaTC. That reading the text could be a stumbling block though. Maybe there’s a graphic cartoon version? Will mull it over before I email SoS.
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Your point about a cartoon one is a good one. I’ve looked for something like that for my kids, seriously. I saw a cartoon version of the manifesto of the communist party, but nothing beyond that. It’s a pity. Not just for kids of course, but it would be handy if there was a “For Dummies…” selection of the various Leftist works, as an introduction for all and that was more in keeping with how most people do actually learn stuff these days. That’s not to criticise the texts as being dense or boring or whatever, just that they’re not everyone’s cup of tea and they do require an effort that not everyone is going to be prepared to make. Do give SoS a shout. The discussions while waiting for the kettle to boil are good as well.
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I tried to post this before, but it doesn’t seem to have appeared. I liked it. How it compares to the original, I don’t know, not having read the original yet…
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Thanks Eamonn.
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Hi Joe.
I wouldn’t be discouraged by the text. Most (if not all of us) encounter vast chunks which we do not understand or are do not see the significance of. You’d be surprised how interesting it is in parts – Marx peppers his work with some great one-liners and put downs.
For example, I realized in the last meeting that I had read over but completely missed the significance of a large section of the Chapter on Money. Needless to say, I felt a bit silly for a second or two but then I realised that this is the point of having a reading group: to discuss and try to understand a text. It is not about having an ‘inside track’ on what Marx said but rather about engaging with the material and trying to understand what was meant and what it might mean for us 150 years later.
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Yes it is still going, there were 6 at the last get together, up from 4 at the first.
…and rising – a few more interested since the last time: one thing I’ll do today now the election is not going to consume all my time is send out an update/ summary to everyone. So, Joe, send us an email at grundrisse.dubin _at_ gmail and I’ll include you. And people with real names are definitely to be welcomed.
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Joe,
The ‘Introducing’ series of illustrated guides I find to be a brilliant set of books about not just politics but all kinds of stuff, particularly in the cultural studies line. They’re ideal if what you’re looking for, as I was when I picked many of them up, is a way in and some interesting signposts.
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Does anyone get the sense that if Gallagher loses we might finally be at a stage where FF specifically, but also their type of glad-handing parochial politics in general, are on the wane or on the way out?
After the the Indo/Sindo poll (always suspect) and the subsequent follow-up MSM message last week that the race was basically over with 5G the clear winner, might we be witnessing the first real dent in how the present orthodoxy operates? The sword with which they sought to slay McGuinness was turned on their golden boy.
The slime that is FF operational politics rose to the surface very quickly and refreshened many people’s memories. Plus, the MSM and the PR operatives of various parties may have seen the easy days of information manipulation come to an end. Maybe sowing the seed of doubt might be all that it takes.
Still it’s disheartening to see so many people easily swayed by superficiality and info manipulation, but one has to have some glimmer of hope for the future.
If FF are mortally wounded, I would see this election, which was much to do about nothing in practical terms, as one of the most significant in modern Irish history.
They can’t tax hope.
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I really hope you’re right and you’ve made some good points. However, Gallagher basically came unstuck because he performed badly on Frontline With Pat Kenny. And you can’t get much more MSM than that.
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I think you’re right – a lot of people were prepared to vote for a total spoofer until it was made clear to them on live TV.
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And what of FG? I’m at present in a small town (by accident); and let me ASSURE you that the holding of various town/ social, premises (hotels, pubs, etc.) frequented by FG, only, is smartening. The crowing and queasy ‘bonhomie’ is quite something; and these are of many generations of a town.
Do no FG supporters contribute to the FG party, via the KClub etc.?
Have not FG, being usually the biggest shareholders in the banks, operated in just as slime a manner, thru – the local banks?
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With 50% of Dublin West tallied:
David McGuinness(FF) 22%,
Eithne Loftus(FG) 14.4%,
Pat Nulty(Lab) 26.1%,
Roderic O’Gorman(GP) 5.3%,
PaulDonnelly (SF) 7.5%,
Ruth Coppinger(SP) 20.3%
Ind 4.4%
A good showing by FF 😦
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Actually better than Lenihan got in the GE – weird
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Turnout a lot lower though, plus FF threw the proverbial kitchen sink at the campaign.
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Anyone any thoughts on how that would pan out for the seat. It looks like Labour doesn’t it? Bit of a land for FG that their sturdy poll rating looks likely to avail them nothing in both elections. Of course you never know with 50% tallies, it could be geographically slanted towards an area where one candidate is strong. Mark P is the man who’d know what this portends I suppose.
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As regards FF I’d imagine they’re helped here by the sentiment factor.
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Looks like Labour – presumably he’ll get the bulk of FG transfers, plus, as he appears as being on the left of the LP (steady, Mark), he’ll pick up some SF transfers.
Only chance for Coppinger is that she pick up more FF transfers than Nulty and overtakes him on the last count. Unlikely….
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V. early to tell. Dublin West is a very uneven constituency. The difference between Castleknock and say Corduff is very significant and is representative of the constituency as a whole.
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Is there any twitter feed or blog or such like giving tallies for the elections?
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If that’s the true SF vote it’s very disappointing for them given the claims about them being on the verge of supplanting FF. It perhaps raises the question of whether they were damaged by the McGuinness campaign. There were suggestions that the attacks on him would be counter productive as people’s outraged sense of fairness would drive them to vote for him. But people don’t launch personal attacks because they’re counter productive, they launch them because they work. I don’t think Fg for example horsed into him for Mitchell’s sake, they were never going to be drawing from the same well anyway, but because the FG self mythology about protecting the institutions of the state meant that taking down MMG would be seen by them as a result in itself. In fairness to SF we have them to thank for the fact that we probably won’t be contemplating Gallagher as President with Johnny Ronan, Liam Carroll and other such entreprenurial heroes having the run of the Aras. As regards that 2:1 in Gallagher’s home town, (A) that;s what you get for charging your local GAA club five grand for a bif of form filling and (B) have we a McGuinness result from that tally, that would give a fair idea of how he’s going, he’d want to be beating Michael D there.
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Looking at those RTE tallies, there’s half a chance McGuinness might beat Gallagher for second which would be a huge result for SF. Mitchell looks to be scrapping it out for last place with Dana and Mary Davis. I wonder if that’s the worst political campaign ever run by one of the big two parties. They’d kill for Austin Currie’s percentage now.
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And apparently early evidence is that the inquiries referendum is going to the nos.
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irishtimes.com has a feed on the front page with the latest tallies. I note from it that David Norris has already congratulated Michael D on becoming the next president.
Poor result for SF in Dublin West if those figures carry. Good result for FF. On the other hand, McGuinness looks like getting somewhere in the high teens at least which is a good result for SF.
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IMHO – SF not very strong in Dublin 15, SP much better organised on local issues.
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Agree entirely. D15 was always unfertile ground for SF given the strength of alternatives to the orthodoxy already in place, ie the SP. The same was true of Dublin Central where Gregory mopped up boht left and republican votes until his death. On the other hand there’s some crossover between the old WP votes and the SF ones. Dublin North East is a case in point.
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Is there any twitter feed or blog or such like giving tallies for the elections?
There’s a thread on P.ie if you can hold your nose long enough: though, predictably, with the pres. election over, it’s wandered OT.
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I think I’ll give that one a miss, bit early in the day to be listening to three lads rowing about who kicked the cat outside the pub in Bruree in 1997.
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Maybe a chilled glass of Dom Perignon and a few cans of Kappackie would set you up for it? The sun is almost over the yard arm 🙂
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Not even a slab of Karpackie could make that lot bearable. Though the demise of Gallagher certainly seems to call for a glass or two of something. Had he won we’d have been deluged with business candidates, his defeat means parties who would have been tempted to go that route will be reluctant to bring up anyone implicated in the whole sleazy brown envelope world they once loved so well.
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:). Or perhaps. 😦
Re McGuinness, those are good results so far. TBH I thought he might get as low as 13 per cent on a bad day but looks considerably better than that.
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Everyone knows who kicked that cat. It was Johnny Moynihan. A cousin of mine’s best friend was there. She seen it with her own eyes. I can’t believe people are still rowing about that.
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Final tally in Dublin West:
Nulty 24.3
Coppinger 21
McGuinness 21.7
Donnelly 9
Loftus 14.8
O’Gorman 5
Oth 4.3
Strangely, Ruth’s vote increased in the counting of the Castleknock boxes while Nulty’s contracted, a sign that the SP have managed to do quite well in breaking into that area. Really hard to call it but Ruth is theoretically within range of winning on transfers though Nulty is still definetely the frontrunner. McGuinness did well but won’t get the transfers. Mrs. Bucket (Loftus) did well for someone who seems confused about politics while Donnelly is polling respectably (but should be doing better even in a week constituency in the context of a national swing towards SF). O’Gorman will drink his frappamappachino with the knowledge that the Greens seem to be more or less where they were. The votes for others may include Barry Caesar Salad’s votes but some people may have mistakenly believed they were ordering their lunch.
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What’s the margin for error in a tally? A tally is just a tally, right? Can they be, or are they ever, wrong?
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Only if someone can’t count. In GEs, the parties usually cooperate, which means inaccuracies are filtered out – my sense is on this one, there are few enough tally people at the count centres.
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So, the possibility exists that the tallys could be wrong? The old-timer FG/FF tallymen may, as you suggest, have sat this one out. I think it’ll be a lot closer in both Dublin West and the Presidential Election than the tallys suggest.
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Not in Dublin West – the parties would have been at full strength there, and I think the tally we’ve got is a cooperative effort. In the presidential one, with no FF people on the ground, and the FG lads probably gone home, we might be looking at some rather loose figures.
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Cheers
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Irish Times says:
Dublin West by-election (100% tally): Labour’s Nulty – 24.3%, FF’s McGuinness – 21.7%, Socialist Party’s Coppinger – 21%, FG’s Loftus – 14.8%. Strong result for FF.
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Expect jubilant article from Noel Whelan prominently featuring the word Brand.
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Sliver of hope for Coppinger? The Shinner’s transfers should take her ahead of the FFer. The FGer eliminated next. Then the FFer. Could the FFer transfer strongly to the SPer? Probably not!
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Depends: the FFer’s votes might not transfer strongly in any particular direction. The FG transfer will go to Labour, though.
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If the FG Castleknock vote was to transfer to FF rather than LP then both SP and FF could get ahead of the LP – giving the SP the win. A long-shot yes – but on these numbers could not be ruled out. Yallymen should be looking at FG no.2’s.
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I hope the Phoenix are finding it hard to swallow that the notoriously hard to get on with Coppinger is well ahead of the hugely popular Donnelly…
In the longer run good percentage for SF, but remember McGuinness is a superstar and they can’t run him in every constituency. He just goes back to the day job now, eh?
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Hmmm… I agree with your first point. The article in the Phoenix was far far too critical of Coppinger, something I pointed to at the time I referenced it.
But the second? Weren’t you the one who was saying as recently as a few days ago that this was a disappointment etc, etc for SF? 😉
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It was only “far too critical” if you forget what Phoenix’s editorial mandate is. Boosting the Provos and running down the rivals to their left and right is the name of the game.
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A good day for SF in the Presidentials, but not a particularly good day for them in Dublin West. Their long term plan was to position themselves to take over Joe Higgins seat, and they look a very long way from challenging now. Not that they’ll necessarily be too bothered as there are gains for them there nationally.
The Socialist Party and ULA will be slightly disappointed not to win, as nobody likes getting within 1,000 votes of the poll topper and still losing, but on reflection will be pleased that the “Joe Higgins vote” is now much more firmly a Socialist Party vote.. And indeed will be pleased that Ruth actually increased from Joe’s percentage of the vote in the GE.
Labour will be very pleased, with a big win for pompous former leftist Michael D Higgins in the Presidential election and a win in Dublin West. But things aren’t quite as rosy as that suggests. The Presidential vote is sui generis and they’d have lost by a reasonable margin if Gallagher hadn’t broken a leg at the final hurdle. About all they can take from it is that Michael D Higgins is a presentable candidate for a post chiefly involving shaking hands and spouting pious waffle.
In Dublin West they got the win but their vote is down 5% on the GE. There certainly aren’t two seats there for them on this vote and there’s even less likely to be two seats there for them on the vote they are likely to get after a few budgets. Joan Burton will be deeply unhappy, and that fact alone should serve as a small comfort to those of us nauseated by the sight of smug liberals patting themselves on the back in the media and all over our facebook and twitter feeds. While she’ll be busy cutting social welfare and hounding the unemployed, Nulty will be appearing at the opening of an envelope in Dublin West. If he has half a brain he’ll even start with self-interested rebellions as it gets close to the GE. If they screw things up badly enough, there might not be one seat for them.
Fianna Fail will be very pleased with their vote, which puts them right back into contention for a seat. Their candidate was relatively smooth and lacking in baggage and they pulled back some of the right wing Lenihan vote which went to FG in the last GE. Helped it must be said by Varadkar outsmarting himself and foisting Hyacincth Bucket on his party as a by-election candidate. Varadkar won’t have wanted a second FG seat any more than Burton wanted Nulty in, but he also won’t be best pleased at the disastrous decline in the party vote. It makes him look bad. It makes the FFer a more credible challenger to him.
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The Socialist Party and ULA will be slightly disappointed not to win, as nobody likes getting within 1,000 votes of the poll topper and still losing, but on reflection will be pleased that the “Joe Higgins vote” is now much more firmly a Socialist Party vote.. And indeed will be pleased that Ruth actually increased from Joe’s percentage of the vote in the GE.
I remember just after Brian Lenihan died I suggested that this might be an SP gain and you were very sceptical – so the fact that you’re a little disappointed now would indicate that it was a very good campaign for you indeed.
FF definitely back from the dead.
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Yes, I was initially sceptical. Labour just haven’t had enough time to properly hang themselves yet. But as it got closer to the day it became apparent that Ruth was in with some sort of shout. So well called on your part.
As for Fianna Fail, yes they’ve done well and are back in teh game in Dublin West. But they really did get a leg up from Fine Gael. Varadkar was taking the piss.
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Greens back from near- death as well in DW.
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Yeah. That’s a big surprise. More transfers for the SP?
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I’d say a few more transfers for Labour and Fine Gael if I had to guess. It’ll be a liberal handwringing vote.
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Yup…believe me or not but the word being given to the ranks was that Martin could win- and the Ra stuff did take them by surprise. But hands up, 20% is a serious vote. (I can’t do the smiley!)
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It’s my 24 hours for yanking chains slightly. Yesterday it was LATC. 🙂
I’m sure you know elections as well or better than I do. I’d hope the ranks weren’t half as unsceptical as I’d have been. And I remember Tony Gregory during elections a man for whom there was never one he was certain he’d win. A good attitude, so I go some way to agreeing with you.
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Back to partition- never underestimate the misconceptions northern republicans have about the south; from a distance you could imagine overtaking Michael D. (hard to imagine now of course).
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But they weren’t alone, even if you are correct. Look at the media response. Otherwise hard headed commentators thought he was in with a shout too in the first couple of days.
I mean I get that you want to highlight SF infamy and self-delusion but how then do you explain the contagion spreading to others diametrically opposed to them? And then there’s Mitchell’s frankly barmy ( as my old Gran from Brummie used to say) concentration on McGuinness. That wasn’t initially just for his health. McGuinness was seen as a player. So much so that for much of t he campaign Independent media were obsessed about it. Same with Herald two nights ago with avfrankly disgraceful editorial. And perhaps sensibly so by their lights. If McG got near enough 1 in 5 votes after that sort of assault what would a more sober campaign see him do?
By the way, not prying, but who was your horse in this race?
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hmmm think your confusing motivation tactics for stratagy.
hard luck to paul donnolly it was an 3 horse race and he didn’t get a look it but he’d want to be or there abouts if they ever want to get a seat out there. lot of work still to do.
delighted at the FG vote, after FF at the start of the year was thinking this was a sign of something new then i realised the government got two in today. good propaganda for them the markets will be pleased!
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Agree in general. Noel Whelan for one thought he could win it. Not sure how much the media stuff works though, I doubt many said’ I’m going to vote for McGuinness…o shit he was in the IRA, I can’t now’. I doubt the media influenced many potential McGuinness voters. My point is that SF did not expect it. They thought that war was over. Mitchel might actually believe that its his duty to attack Shinners-none of the other candidates really did at all.
No horse in the race…if Labour were not in govt maybe Michael D or a more honest Shinner from ‘down here’ (Needs smiley again!).
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shay so you doubht that many people would go ‘o shit he was in the ra’ but your issue is that the shinners up north did as well. rule 101 for the shinners doing an election in the 26 write the press statement for when garda gerry mcabe gets brought up. They don’t live under a rock i have problems with the northern leadership for there weighting of some socio economic issues but the level of electoral nievity your suggesting for them is a bit much.
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I would regard them as being not naive but just wrong regards the 26. In the 80s they were absolutely convinced most Fianna Failers were secretly against extradition, anti-collaboration etc. They were always proved wrong. Today they think that the old FF vote is theirs by right, hence McGuinness plays it safe on social-economic issues. My view is that core-FF despise northern republicans and were delighted to vote for Gallagher. It is the Labour vote SF should be targeting.
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I gather FF supporters chanted ‘We’re Back We’re Back’ when Cllr McGuinness came into count centre …
😦
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One swallow and all that.
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Are they fuck back. They have just lost their last seat in Dublin.
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Again!
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Back just in time for the Mahon Report
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Reports that after the recount Coppinger and McGuinness are tied in Dublin West. So it will be a while before we know a result
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