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That latest Paddy Power Red C poll… January 17, 2012

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Economy, Irish Politics, The Left.
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That Paddy Power Red C poll that was released last week wasn’t marked by us at all, and nor does politicalreform.ie mention it either. But it is the first poll of 2012, the first of many, and therefore worth looking at briefly.

Headline figures, FG at 33, the LP at 16, both up 1%. FF at 17 and SF at 14, both down. Independents at 20% and unchanged.

It’s not completely analogous but the last Red C/Sunday Business Post poll of 2011 – published on December 4th, had the following figures:

Fine Gael 32%, Labour 15%, Fianna Fail 18%, Sinn Fein 15%, Independents 20%

Just to note that ‘Independents’ includes Others and the Green Party. Irritating in the latter instance, difficult to determine national support in the former.

The figures are near identical, well within the margin of error, so in essence this suggests a certain stasis. If so then the electoral volatility may be coming to an end – though that won’t be to the liking of many on the current figures. But then again it was Christmas and New Year and not a lot happened during that period. Certainly none of the parties should be too concerned by the minor fluctuations up or down. On the other hand some of the parties will be concerned by the overall position they are in. And for that let’s consider the situation at the election almost twelve months ago.

Then FF was at 17.4%, FG 36.1 %, the LP at 19.4%, the GP at 1.8%, SF at 9.9% and Ind/Others 15.4%.

As the baseline for all that follows it demonstrates that FF still is unable to make any great hay from the current events. Ignore the .4%, but their poll ratings are becalmed. Fine Gael will, perhaps, be glad that they’ve only shed 3%, and consider how disastrous the Mitchell candidacy was – so they may have ducked the bullet, so far, but it’s early days yet. Labour a lot less happy, because they’ve lost 3% but have less of a base to absorb it. SF must be content, an increase of near enough 5% [and guess where that support is coming from]. The Presidential Election clearly did them no harm. While not anywhere as good as some of the more stratospheric ratings in certain end of year polls it’s still a solid performance heralding a seat bonus come any election in the near to mid-term.

But to my mind the truly stratospheric figure, and indicative of a broad disenchantment with the political system, is that continuing 20% for the Ind/Others, who also have gained about 5 per cent on their election level.

Throw the votes of SF and those Ind/Other votes together and one can see a clear 35 per cent oppositional vote [hard though to add the FF vote on top of that]. More than 1 in 3 voters supports formations or representatives who do not cleave to the status quo. And reasonable to posit that amongst LP voters that sentiment may be extant, albeit to an unknown degree. A year in, and with many many difficult issues now moving into clear focus, that can’t be good for the Government.

Speaking of those issues, take the household charge, there’s an huge lack of knowledge out there…

24% do not know if they are liable for the charge, while 19% say they do not have to pay it.
The poll shows that 42% know they are due to pay it and say they will.
However, 15% say they know they are liable for the charge, but they are not going to pay it.

How this pans out for the campaigns? Hard to know. Nice to get some harder detail. You know, we need another poll!

Comments»

1. irishelectionliterature - January 17, 2012

http://redcresearch.ie/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/Paddy-Power-12th-Jan-Political-Poll-2012-Vote-Intention-Report2.pdf


Has further details of the poll , including
“Independent candidates and other parties retain 17% of the first preference vote, up 1% on that achieved
at the last election, the strength of support is high in Dublin, due to good levels of support for the Socialist Party at 3%.
The Green Party will also be pleased to see support back at 3%, again with strengths for the Party in Dublin where they secure 6% first preference.
With regard to the household charge itself, 26% of those aware they are liable for the charge claim they wont pay it. Those who are more likely to claim they will not pay appear to be in younger age groups,
and to be living in Leinster outside of Dublin. “

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WorldbyStorm - January 17, 2012

Thanks a million for that. It certainly makes it look interesting. That 3% for the SP is very intriguing.

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Blissett - January 17, 2012

Is that 3pc nationally or in dublin?

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2. D_D - January 17, 2012

What is happening in Dublin city? While the rest of Leinster is in the vanguard of resistance Dublin is at the rear. In Dublin a mere 7% of the total polled said they are aware they are liable for the charge and claim they won’t pay it (ROL 21%). A mere 14% of all those in Dublin who said they are aware they are liable for the charge claim they won’t pay (ROL 34%).

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Julian Assandwich - January 17, 2012

It could be due to (and I’m assuming here) higher rates of rentals in Dublin. In most cases the landlord will have to absorb the e100 as there is a fixed lease in place. The increased charge won’t hit home until the next lease. That could take most people under 30 or so out of the equation.

Rest of Leinster may also have the threat of the septic tank charge which city-dwellers wouldn’t.

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Blissett - January 17, 2012

The latter point is actually the primary one. Rural parts there are meetings in small villages of hundreds of people. Far more exercised about the Septic Tank charge than urban dwellers are about household charge. Many of them have conflated the two, and have decided they are paying neither!!

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WorldbyStorm - January 17, 2012

Agreeing with all the p;revious comments, a further point made to me today was the commuter belt, and unemployed commuter belt that has developed there since the demise of the Celtic Tiger. People feeling the pinch or getting by on one wage where there were previously two, or no wages where there was previously one, aren’t going to want to pay out yet more.

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3. paddy healy - January 17, 2012

The performance by others in both recent polls is far better than a comparison with the general election outcome indicates. In a general election there are many “no hoper” candidates who together inflate the “others” vote. The “others” vote is normally substantially below the general election figure in opinion polls.For Example in September 2010, when Greens were also at 3% as now, others were at 9%. Consider the following poll results: Historic Comparison Figures—note “others”
IPSOS MRBI September 29 2010
• Fianna Fail: 24+3.
• Fine Gael 24-3.
• Labour 33.+4.
• Green 2-2.
• Sinn Fein 8-2.
• Others 9 nc.
RED C Sep 20 2010, Sunday Business Post:
• Fine Gael 31 (-2)
• Fianna Fail 24,(nc)
• Labour 23 (-4)
• SinnFein 10 (+2)
• Green 3 (+1)
• Others 9 (+3)
RED C October 2010
• Fianna Fail 18 (-6),
• Fine Gael 32 (+1),
• Labour 27 (+4),
• Sinn Fein 9 (-1),
• Green 4 (+1),
• Independent 10 (+1)

Paddy Healy

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4. que - January 17, 2012

SF on 16% of men yet 11% of women. Intereting but also on 19% of C2DE.

Sadly FG at 27% of C2DE

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5. Encouraging polls for the “Yes” Campaign | Stephen Spillane - March 4, 2012

[…] That latest Paddy Power Red C poll… (cedarlounge.wordpress.com) […]

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