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That latest Red C Poll January 28, 2012

Posted by irishelectionliterature in Uncategorized.

There’s a Red C opinion poll in tomorrows Sunday Business Post
Since the last poll

Fine Gael: 30% (-2)
Independents/ Others / Greens: 21% (+1)
Fianna Fail: 18% (no change)
Sinn Féin: 17% (+2)
Labour: 14% (-1)

Seat wise Dotski over at Irish Polling Report ran the numbers through the magic spreadsheet and got

FG 30%,60
FF 18%,31
SF 17%,24
LP 14%,25
OTH 21%,26

The poll was taken before Enda told us we all went mad borrowing.

Since the last General Election the figures are

Fine Gael: 36.1% – 6.1%
Fianna Fail: 17.4% +0.6%
Sinn Fein: 9.9% +7.1%
Labour: 19.4% -5.4%
Independents/Others/ Greens: 17.2% +3.8%

So between them Labour and Fine Gael have declined 11.5% since the election. Sinn Fein and The Independents/Others/Greens have picked up most of the slack with Fianna Fail only slightly up.
Again and these are headline figures, no mention of the constituent parts of the The Independents/Others/Greens so we cant tell exactly which part of that group is picking up votes.
A very good poll for Sinn Fein though at 17% and with the tribunal findings coming out soon they could easily overtake Fianna Fail.
No real shocks though in the results of that part of the poll.

Pollsters then asked

Do you think that the Irish people should be asked to ratify any proposed treaty change through a referendum?*

Yes – 72%
No – 21%
Don’t know – 7%

And then a surprising amount answered Yes to the other question asked…..

*How do you think you would vote in such a referendum?*

Yes – 40%
No – 36%
Don’t know – 24%

Its early days yet but I wouldn’t have expected there to be 40% in favour. The gap is only 4% and there are plenty of don’t knows but still I’m sure the government will see the numbers as encouraging.


1. irishelectionliterature - January 29, 2012

The paper today gives a national breakdown of the The Independents/Others/Greens as Independents at 17%, Greens at 3% and Socialist Party at 1%.
No regional breakdown though.


WorldbyStorm - January 29, 2012

That GP number is interesting, isn’t it?

Still and all, healthy for the Indos/Others.


Julian Assandwich - January 30, 2012

That Socialist Party figure is worrying. How many of general public conflate the SP and the ULA? Could that be a ULA figure? If not, the SP were on 1.2 percent nationally in last year’s election. At best that shows stagnation, while SF have managed to nearly double their figure.

Then again, if identification/confusion is the problem, the ULA could also represent a nice slice of others/independents.

How prescient was that piece here last week lamenting the lack of a unitary image for the ULA.


irishelectionliterature - January 30, 2012

I think a lot of it has to do with Geography. Realistically though the Socialist Party fielded 9 candidates in the last election.
Two of that nine were elected. Of the other candidates three polled over 1000 votes.
They fielded 5 candidates in Dublin and 4 elsewhere. So its hard for a national poll to be completely relevant for them.

It is a pity though that the ULA isn’t counted as that had a far greater national spread.


2. CMK - January 29, 2012

That 40% Yes for the new Fiscal Pact treaty might be a hold over from the crude ‘Europe=Good; Anti-Euro=Bad’ mindset that dominates all mainstream media coverage of the EU affairs and I think has been inculcated by a good bulk of the electorate. It might also reflect the belief that maybe, just maybe, the EU, if it assumed a greater degree of control over domestic fiscal and economic policy, might make a better fist of it (something that seems to be implied by much newspaper commentary). The sorts of gombeens who FG and FF are required to minister to would presumably get short shrift from a Brussels technocrat. All very un-democratic but, as the tale is now been put about, our own democratic decisions lay as much at root of the current crisis as the actions of bankers, speculators etc.

However, given the current climate, where the cuts are really beginning to bite and anger is mounting, if the Left can get the argument out there that a vote for this Pact will, inexorably, lead to massive swinging cuts in services, transfers and public sector pay and numbers, in order to keep the deficit to within .5% of GDP.

The barrier of what is politically possible within a capitalist liberal democracy, in terms of attacks on services and living standards, is coming into view. What this Pact could require of an Irish government would breach that barrier. It may well be that the government should put this to a vote and have it rejected. Because if they pass this through the Dáil alone the will have ceded all legitimacy and made serious social conflict and battles inevitable.


WorldbyStorm - January 29, 2012

I think the deficit suggestion is the most pernicious policy approach that’s been floated in a generation and as smiffy said a while back it is one that would lock down permanently any hope that national governments could tilt against neo-liberalism.


3. More on that latest Red C Poll… « The Cedar Lounge Revolution - January 31, 2012

[…] has already covered it here so just some musings here buildings on his thoughts. It’s early days yet, but am I wrong in beginning to see a stability reenter the system? Thought […]


4. Pollwatch: Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI April 19th | Stephen Spillane - April 19, 2012

[…] That latest Red C Poll (cedarlounge.wordpress.com) […]


5. Pollwatch: Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI 20th April | Stephen Spillane - April 19, 2012

[…] That latest Red C Poll (cedarlounge.wordpress.com) […]


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