The Mahon Report…

… a good day for the government, a bad day for Fianna Fáil. I’d heard during the week that the publication was imminent, but to be honest what with everything else it didn’t capture my imagination. But, on reading it… well, let’s just say it brought it all back.

It was difficult at 11 o’clock break to download what was a fairly small PDF of the Report from the Tribunal site – perhaps an indication that public appetite for this was considerable.

Granted a brief scan of the Report conclusion leaves a certain degree of anti-climax. ‘Is that it?’ is the phrase that most readily springs to mind (there’s also the sense that this is but the tip of an iceberg). After all we could all draw our own conclusions from the information that came out during the process.

Until that is one realises how many names there are. Chapter 17 goes on, and on and on listing Councillors and payments.

And then one realises that this has been a forensic and useful exercise in examining aspects of political life in this state. Nor is it as if there are no consequences.

Particularly when it makes finding of corruption.

It’s not good at all for Padraig Flynn. Not good for Bertie Ahern. Hard to make the reputation of Liam Lawlor any worse – now he has shuffled off this mortal coil, but yes, it manages that task.

Not good for former FF Cabinet Ministers who it notes ‘made sustained and virulent attacks on the integrity of the Tribunal members’.

Not good in that it paints a picture, and an officially legitimised one of a sleazy web of corruption, favours, evasions, lies, and political chicanery centred on FF that is near impossible to shrug off.

And it is this political import which is going to have consequences well into the future. This is terrible news for Micheal Martin and his efforts to rework a battered and bruised Fianna Fáil. What does he do now? As the Irish Times noted:

“When the final report of the Mahon Tribunal is published we will act without fear or favour against anyone who is shown to have abused their position in Fianna Fáil or in elected office,” he said at the party’s ardfheis in Dublin last month.

Does that mean jettisoning Ahern and the Ahern era in a very public defenestration? Can he do that? Does he have the political space?

Conversely it’s good news for the Government parties. They’re content in the knowledge that they’re not Fianna Fáil, and although the economic news is middling poor to terrible, and their woes as regards the household tax continue to best them amongst other things, it provides a break in that cycle for today, tomorrow and the weekend.

You can’t buy breathing space like that. Moreover it reminds people why they stopped voting for Fianna Fáil and why they started voting for Fine Gael, or Labour, or Sinn Féin or Independents.

Actually that last is intriguing because so much of the formerly FF vote appears to have gone to SF and Others.

Most interesting again to see will be the Fianna Fáil vote and whether it dips further or remains where it has been.

How bad could the damage be? Hard to say. But the Report is merciless in pointing at FF. That stubborn 18 per cent or so who have stuck with the party through thick and thin have demonstrated a supreme loyalty, but can that survive intact following the revelation of this? It’s one thing for corruption to be rumoured – quite a different thing for a Tribunal to make findings such as this. It will be very very revealing of the mindset of those still supporting FF to see what happens next.

And for Martin, having sat in Cabinet beside the man of the moment, how does he fashion a narrative that is sufficient unto the day to reposition himself and FF?

Mind you, as interesting will be any movement between the non-FF opposition and the government.

And the next poll? That will be the week after next in the Sunday Business Post, unless the Irish Times or someone else decides to get in there first.

All told a lot to reflect on and some further (and unusually non-economically related, at least not specifically) political turbulence ahead.

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On one related issue, worth looking at Chapter 18 1:14 which notes that the Tribunal ‘is concerned that recent changes in the planning system have resulted in an over-centralisation of power in the hands of the Minister for the Environment which is not subject to sufficient checks and balances. Consequently, the Tribunal is recommending that the MOE’s ability to give directs to Regional Authorities and Local Planning Authorities should be entrusted to a Planning Regulator. However, the MOE should continue to play a key role in adopting the NSS and NDP.’

And moreover…

The Planning Regulator should assume some of the MOE’s existing role in relation to enforcement, the Tribunal considers that his or her role should not be confined to this. In particular, the Tribunal is recommending that the Regulator should also be entrusted with the power to investigate possible systemic problems in the planning system, including those raising corruption risks…

Interesting if that is actioned.