Fiscal Treaty Referendum Poll Result… April 19, 2012
Posted by WorldbyStorm in European Politics, Irish Politics.trackback
No time to do this justice, perhaps later, but this polling data is interesting.
The outcome of the European stability treaty referendum on May 31st is wide open, according to the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll which shows the result is in the hands of undecided voters.
Asked whether they were likely to vote Yes or No to the treaty, 30 per cent of voters said Yes, 23 per cent said No, 39 per cent were undecided and 8 per cent said they would not vote. When undecided voters, and those who won’t vote, are excluded the Yes side is ahead by 58 per cent to 42 per cent but the outcome hinges on the attitude of the currently undecided voters.
That’s less than seemed to be indicated in other polls on this matter.
It’s not difficult to think up reasons why there would remain a cohesive bloc of voters against the proposals. Household tax, water tax and so on and so forth even if not primary reasons for inducing scepticism above and beyond the sort of rhetoric emanating from the EU and the ECB and the actual events of the past three or four years, and that’s before we get to an analysis of the measures the Treaty seeks to introduce.
All of which is hugely problematic for the Government because it cannot exactly take any of those issues off the table.
By the way:
The details of today’s poll show that the Yes campaign has strong backing from middle-class voters and farmers but working-class voters are opposed to it by a large margin.
What is their definition of ‘class’ in this context? Is it the old marketing approach? Why, yes, it is – further on it mentions ‘AB’ voters.
IELB adding this
The Government Site stabilitytreaty.ie . Note how it has changed from Fiscal Treaty to a Stability Treaty.
Government video
The Cedar Lounge Revolution 
Good to see that they’ve got someone with a non-threatening regional accent to do the voiceover.
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I’d really like to see some independent, and larger, polls taken on this. These companies keep records of numbers, whether the person receiving the call was responsive or not, etc., so that ‘friendly’ numbers can be re-used. Now, the Irish Times has something resembling a blackout on any interpretations of the news deemed to be critical of the EU or ECB as a whole, so, as with their last escapades regarding previous treaties, they will be trying to establish a false consensus that tallies with their own ideology. This can be extended beyond the IT, of course; to RTE and most of our newspapers (to varying degrees. The Herald, for instance, is the not-so-subtle tabloid version of pro-EU propoganda).
By creating the false impression of a national consensus, it is hoped that the more impresionable will be swayed, etc; and no attention will be given to results in districts where there is ‘irregularity'(There was certainly interference in the Lisbon referendum in it’s second attempt.) .
It’s a ‘build it and they will come’ philosophy.
It begins with showing moderate support for the treaty, with a lot of ‘undecideds;, and then, in tandem with the govt.s campaign, falsifies an increase in support, poll-by-poll, and has as additional beneficiary, the seeming-astuteness of the media entity in question (and the poll company benefits, too, of course).
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There is that, and consensus building, in favour of the orthodoxy is without question a conscious/unconscious aspect of the media. But, in a way, after a century of centre/right right of centre government/etc do they need to do much work to consolidate it? It’s there all around. That said, in the instances you cite, re the treaty, there’s a ‘push’ factor as you suggest, no doubt about it.
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Interesting (but naturally comes with a health warning):
http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0421/poll-shows-voters-do-not-understand-fiscal-treaty.html
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