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The IT/MRBI Poll: No surprise there… April 19, 2012

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.

No time to reflect much on these figures. More tomorrow from IELB or myself. Headline figures?

Fine Gael, 33 per cent (down three points); Labour, 13 per cent (down six points); Fianna Fáil, 14 per cent (down one point); Sinn Féin, 21 per cent (up six points); Green Party, 2 per cent (up one point); and Independents/ Others, 17 per cent (up three points).

But given the background noise, household and water taxes and so on did anyone expect much better for them? Well, actually, FG and Labour might have done so – coming out of party conference season. But it was not to be. Perhaps they had advance notice of the figures this morning because the Tanaiste and the Government front bench appeared much less chipper than might otherwise have been expected.

Speaking of the tax/charges. Consider this thought. Is it possible that they have, in some way, strengthened opposition feeling to the Government? Not so much to directly benefit Independents and Others, the ULA in particular, though that’s possible from the figures, but more to consolidate a general ‘oppositionalism’ abroad in the polity? If so bad news for the Government. After all, if the LPs ratings are now dropping back to their historical average (at least across the last thirty years) and FG is dipping back to earlier sub-30 norms, and we’ve still, what – two, perhaps three more years of austerity according to Gilmore at the weekend (and that’s if everything goes about as well as it possible could – a big ask in anyone’s book) then there’s not much of a comfort zone there, and suddenly the talk of FG political dominance starts to look shaky. Cue, no doubt, noises off about a ‘new’ new right of FG party.

But that Independent vote is holding up well. Very very well actually and last night and today’s debate won’t have hurt any in that regard. SF should be pleased but wary.

Why? Because overall, volatility remains the name of the game.


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