Unleash the McQuaid! It’s house price data time again. April 27, 2012Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
I’ve been perhaps a bit harsh on Alan McQuaid of Bloxham, here and here for his identikit statements on the house price decline issue. But got to admit he brings a bit of much-needed sanity to the latest news trumpeted by the Irish Times that ‘house price decline slows for the first time in seven months’. Given the not inconsiderable role the IT played through affiliated entities and its own property supplements in the housing area over the past two decades one might think they would be a little…cautious… about the whole issue. But.. nope… not really.
RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY prices fell further in the year to the end of March, but the pace of decline slowed for the first time in seven months, according to new data published yesterday.
According to the Central Statistics Office, prices for homes fell by an average of 16.3 per cent on an annual basis last month, compared with 17.8 per cent in the year to the end of February.
However, on a monthly basis, there was no change compared with February. The last time there was a halt in monthly price declines was August 2010.
Though in fairness to the IT they were not alone. Our beloved Minister of Finance had this to say in another article…
Mr Noonan said for the first time in a long time house prices had marginally increased in Dublin in March, by less than 1 per cent.
Well that’s got to be good for that market. No? Which has seen the following:
According to Central Statistics Office figures, which do not take into account cash sales, the national index of house prices is now 49 per cent lower than its highest level in 2007.
Almost a 50 per cent drop since 2007. It makes one wonder where those current paragons of economic orthodoxy were in 2007 not to be able to discern that there was a bubble and the bubble was close to imploding.
And the current and future problem is, as noted by Glas Securities:
“While these figures are undoubtedly positive in the context of accelerating price falls since late 2010, it is worth noting that monthly price data can be volatile, particularly as the data is restricted to mortgage transactions and prices have still fallen 4.1 per cent in the first quarter,”
And McQuaid is even more downbeat/realistic.
…the March figures were an improvement on the previous two-month period, and offered signs of encouragement that the annual rate of decline has stabilised.
However, he said, there was unlikely to be a significant improvement to the market until the employment situation improved.
“Although the March data are a step in the right direction we don’t see any significant improvement in the housing market until the employment situation gets better and bank lending returns to some sort of ‘normality’, which is still some way off in our opinion.”
And this stability he mentions?
Bloxham is predicting a double-digit decline in house prices for the year, in the region of 15 per cent.