What is 14% of 13% ? …… That Red C Poll October 27, 2012
Posted by irishelectionliterature in Uncategorized.trackback
Red C SBP poll:
FG 34(+2)
Lab 13(-1)
FF 19 (+1)
SF 17(-1)
Inds/others 17(-1)
Whats more interesting though was…
Red C also asked how strongly committed supporters of the two coalition parties are.
39% of Fine Gael voters are loyal, while 46% say they are becoming disillusioned, and 15% are losing faith.
By contrast, only 14% of Labour voters are loyal, 52% are becoming disillusioned, and 34% say they are losing faith in the party.
So only 14% of the Labour voters are loyal. That is 14% of the 13% the party are measured at.
The Cedar Lounge Revolution 
with Sinn Fein & Fianna Fail starting to regain ground & Fine Gael aiming to use the crisis & budgets to get a one-party government, the United Left Alliance need to start moving towards a unitary party or call it a day, be three separate groups the over-optimistic People Before Profit (with or without Joan Colins TD), stubborn Socialist Party & ULA under Clare Daly, i have great respect for them all & parliamentary politics isnt the be-all-end-all, however apart from the CAHWT & Home Help women (whose campaigns will either end in defeat or victory), most people (especially young people) have not heard of all three groups or get confused by the overlapping titles.
if they want to stay as small permanent opposition sects, thats fine but the working class inc emigrants do not have that time or perception, if Syriza in Greece can unite many groups in a far far worse situation then the ‘objective conditions’ are starting to appear, ignore these at your peril to the benefit of larger party blocs & their media. Good luck 🙂
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A reasonable point. It’s often suggested here that there’s an appetite out there for a new right wing party. But personally I think that appetiate is being served fine at the moment. What there is a lack of is a new social democratic/socialist party to represent the public servants who are going to get the lash from Croke Park 2, the opponents of the household and water taxes and the victims of austerity. The ULA was never going to be that kind of party because of the parties involved, they have no interest in being mass parties and I say that without prejudice because I have time for both the SP and SWP. But with Labour committed to implementing austerity and SF showing worrying FF type tendencies in the Quinn affair, it strikes me that the space is to the left of centre rather than to the right of centre. If you want something even more right wing than the current dispensation all you have to do is wait for Labour to disappear and FG to govern on its own.
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Eamon, objectively speaking you’re correct that FG occupies that space in the political spectrum, but FG are the “nice” party of the respectable middle class, there’s still an overlapping ideological space there for a rough around the edges working class right wing party with an anti-foreigner pro-business ring to it. Libertas on steroids maybe.
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Correct LATC
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But FF can probably do the rough around the edges working class right wing with an anti-foreigner pro-business thing if it has to. I still think the obvious failure of austerity, which will become more and more apparent, will surely leave a lot of people hankering for a social democratic alternative rather than a more extreme version of the same. We’re flagging up this populist right wing party a long time, for one thing it’s the apres moi la deluge excuse used by the likes of Jack O’Connor, and barring one good election for the PDs which was probably more of an anti-Haughey FF supporter thing than a general shift right, it hasn’t happened. I also think that outside Dublin FG aren’t the party of the nice middle class as much as the party of people who aren’t FF.
Personally speaking I can’t think of any party I’d want to vote for in Cork SW next time, unless the ULA run someone who gets 534 votes. The teachers, the nurses, the home helps, all the people whose wages will go down as the parties compete for who can be seen to be toughest on the public sector, who are those people going to vote for? And there’ll be quite a lot of them.
This anti-foreigner party is being predicted for a long time too and I see no sign of there being any traction there.
A poll recently showed that 8% or so of Irish people would vote for Romney if they were in the US. Hard right stuff has never been popuar here, many people who would think of themselves as mildly left wing and certainly have social democratic views about fair play, social protection and the need for good public services vote for the mainstream parties because there’s no option. These are the much derided ‘liberals’ but they’re not necessarily a middle class phenomenon. I think they’re unrepresented to a far greater degree than some raw meat eating Tebbitesque suburbanite.Now social democracy may not seem terribly exciting but given the current state of Irish politiccs, even that would be a radical departure.
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And, for all the fun we’ve had with Ganley, I don’t think he represents any kind of serious threat to anyone. He’s a kind of political Pat Dolan.
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“Now social democracy may not seem terribly exciting but given the current state of Irish politiccs, even that would be a radical departure.”
+1 A genuine left social democrat party would actually prove quite a challenge to the system (look what SYRIZA has achieved in Greece – though granted it is not quite a left social democrat ‘party’ and nor is Greece the same).
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You know I’d vote for traditional social democracy myself as an alternative to the current regime. Who’s offering that option though? SF are still tainted by the blood of the almost three decades of war, and the ULA’s constituents aren’t offering anything constructive (not to undermine the importance of “fightback” but as a narrative it is lop-sided). I hope you’re right about Ganley. I’m not so sure that Fg = not FF in the country, there’s less/more to it that that, unless you abstract rural class relations into only two polar opposite camps.
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TBH, it’s not so much the conflict that concerns me about SF in that they couldn’t be where they are today if there hadn’t been at least some reckoning on that score. It’s more the stuff about Quinn and the clear contradictions (and lack of clarity as to what is their baseline) in the North.
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Of course, i don’t disagree whatsoever, I was only saying that SF are contaminated by more than simple Left/Right concerns in the minds of older voters at least. As you say, their social democratic credentials are suspect enough to boot. You’d sort of wonder how a SYRIZA / Die Linke party/grouping would fare here wouldn’t you?
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LATC, A “SYRIZA / Die Linke party/grouping” would probably do no better here than the combined forces of SF + ULA + left groups outside the ULA.
They have evolved as a reflection of the forces available within their particular electoral system and social, economic and political environment.
Their existence here would bring no more forces into play than are already present. And the forces here probably pretty much maximised their vote in the last election.
There is potential for further growth, but the method of maximising the strength of left forces in Greece or Germany (particularly with their list systems of voting) would have no particular advantage under our own system.
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Its not impossible after the next election http://www.politicalcompass.org/ireland2011
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There’s no getting away from this for Labour. No amount of rhetoric will disguise the impending disaster,.
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True, unless Gilmore ends the timid ‘Campaign For Labour left’ Policies grouplet under annoyed councillors & Patrick Nulty, then after the 2014 local elections, he will probably be replaced as leader in a party heave by Joan Burton
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A recent conservative Irish Times poll with commentary by Stephen Collins & breakdown by Adrian Kavanagh, estimated that Richard Boyd Barrett may be squeezed out in a loss of the last seat in Dun Laoghaire, do people here think its a likely loss?
Do people think Joe Higgins will retire before the next General election (Ruth Coppinger in line), & down in Cork Mick Barry may have a chance? as the poll guessed, with the revival of Fianna Fail & their opportunistic ‘opposition’ to the Home/Water Taxes (“Wrong Tax at the Wrong Time”) that the Left ‘Alliance’ will get at least two TDs (Seamus Healy excluded) ?
Finally on the U.$. (s)election by corporations & the many reasons for the weakening of the divided Occupy groups what would people here recommend in the limited voting, a vote for the quirky Roseanne Barr of the left Peace & Freedom Party (based in California) or a vote for the Socialist Party USA candidate Stewart Alexander? the next four years will be challenging. cheers
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The areas added by the constituency commission to Dun Laoghaire would not be hotbeds of Socialism by any means and with Sean Barrett as Ceann Comhairle being returned automatically RBB will find it tough. Its effectivley a three seater with Mary Mitchell O’Connor of FG a cert and then Gilmore, an FF candidate, the second FG candidate and RBB battling it out for the final two seats.
That Oil rig in Dublin Bay could be what saves RBB.
I think FFs revival is partly because the current government are carrying out their policies and theres carry on like Reilly and the primary care centres that appear like ‘strokes’.
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Cheers irishelectionliterature, a further challenge for the United Left so, at least they won’t have Enda Kenny trick or treating doors in that area! :-p
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Would you really say Mitchell O’Connor is a cert? Depressing if so. Has to be among the worst TDs of the current dáil
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Alas She has to be unless they come up with a high profile second FG. She is highly thought of and well respected from her time as Principal in The Harolds School which I think is in Glasthule.
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That +1 for FF is interesting, even if only in the margin of error. A slow crawl upwards. A bit of ballast from SF back to FF?
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An interesting thing about FF, ‘going forward’, is they have the jump on other parties to shape shift a bit to meet the changing times. Will be interesting to see how much of their local election field is relatively youthful, and female. Surely going to be a big effort to put a new face on the party come the locals as springboard to the Dáil.
Gov parties are probably stuck as they are for the time-being and SF have little reason to change deviate from the road they’re currently on, but FF have the opportunity to experiment a bit to try and tick a few of the boxes currently unchecked in the hope putting the other stuff to bed.
Lot of established egos overcome in the meantime.
LATC, I reckon some of FG’s patch will be occupied by a group who can get by on the anti-CPA thing without having to mention immigrants. The ground is well laid for a contingent who see FF & FG as too soft, tainted by social partnership and eager to keep Lab & SF out.
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To answer the question in the title – what is 14% of 13%; the answer is 1.82%
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Wow, when you put it that way, Michael! Surely someone in the LP is going to start seriously thinking about what that means.
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It’s kind of meaningless though: the total sample size is 1000 or thereabouts, which means 130 people declaring their intention to vote Labour. 14% of that is about 19 people. You really can’t extrapolate from that small a figure.
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It’s not thinking we need, it’s FEELING what it means.
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Nessa, ever done a Myers-Briggs personality test? We need thinking and feeling, and a lot more besides. Your point is substantially correct though. I keep an eye on the Social-Europe site (and kudos for your own piece there a month or so ago) and for all the well-informed thinking there is a complete lack of connection between that stream of intellectual endeavour and the reality of politics at the ;level of people’s actually existing experiences in their lives. Not to downgrade the importance of theory, but a bit more contact with practice might help.
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That 1.82% thats around what the greens got at the last election. Thats the amount of ‘loyal’ labour voters out there!
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Just out of curiosity, what’s the lowest level Labour has achieved in elections in the last say 30 years? I would imagine it makes the results of this poll look somewhat iffy indeed, even allowing for the fact that the disillusionment is likely to be bigger now than before.
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6.5% in the 1987 election.
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4% in an MRBI poll in I think 1986.
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It does seem the gap is to the left of centre. But closer to the centre than the ULA. Essentially those who believe in mainstream European social democracy are those left unrepresented.
SF cover that ground a little, but unconvincingly to those of us with modestly long memories.
Labour might have nurtured this group if they had pushed the line about being in power withFG in order to limit the damage FG would do alone, but when Gilmore says we should continue with austerity regardless of the IMF or a bank deal, they have clearly decided to abandon anything like traditional left wing thinking.
The time is right to push a straightforward left alternative, which never chimed with simple common sense more strongly. But who is left to do so?
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the gap is in undecideds. plague on all your houses.
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I think this is correct, Paul. There is now a real possibility of a new left Party emerging in the MEDIUM term. ( in case I get in trouble for mentioning ” breakaway groups) again!) Am also tired of getting in trouble for telling the truth. It’s a bad sign in any group .
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Present growing pains aside, the project for the new left party exists and is open to genuine left-social democrat activist groups.
I think every Tom, Dick and Harry can see and appreciate the urgent need and massive potential for such a mass campaigning organization to unite the working class against bailouts, austerity and the right.
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One interesting aspect of this is that Ireland, for reasons I don’t really understand, is basically the only European country where Trotskyists (i.e SP/SWP/PBP) have gained some kind of an electoral foothold whereas there is no equivalent of the kind of broad left parties which have done well elsewhere (i.e Die Linke/ Syriza/ Dutch Socialist Party/ Front de Gauche). Foreign observers might be tempted to slot Sinn Fein into that category but that seems wrong for reasons other people here have discussed
Now, I would suggest that any Trotskyist outfit is inevitably going to confront a pretty low electoral ceiling both because of their own self-destructive and sectarian tendencies and because revolutionary socialism just does not appeal to voters much.
Broad left parties, which may include Trotskyist “platforms”, do better because they appeal to traditional social democratic constituencies and offer relatively tangible and previously familiar policies (usually radicalized Keynesianism, confiscatory taxation on the rich, defence of the welfare state, along with a fiercely anti-American line on foreign policy).
In Ireland, if there were a Labour breakaway around Broughan, Shorthall, and Nulty, I think it could form the nucleus for such a party which could also accommodate the likes of Halligan, Murphy, Pringle and now Clare Daly and Seamus Healy. Boyd Barrett and Joan Collins, who seem a bit more flexible than Higgins and co., might join in as well. Now that’s what a “United Left Alliance” should really look like and it would give the 86% of “disloyal” Labour voters somewhere to go. (And those people are seriously “disloyal” — including some who WORK for the Party). Some trade unions could end up jumping ship as well which would help with the financial issues. And if it really took off, a la Syriza, then a coalition with Sinn Fein might be on the cards. They’d just have to make sure they kept Mick Wallace out!
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On a side note, I may be wrong about this, but isn’t Paul Murphy the only MEP who hails from the Trotskyist tradition? It’s pretty remarkable if you think about it.
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Pasanario, that’s a very interesting analysis and. Lot of old for thought (though I take on board dilatentes critique). I think you are spot on re a left of the LP space which could b occupied. No sure the various forces will do it though.
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“Lot of food for thought” pesky phone!
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1) Paul Murphy is the only current MEP representing a Trotskyist party, but he’s not the only Trotskyist MEP, and there have previously been a number of MEPs elected as candidates of Trotskyist parties.
2) Not only are Trotskyists involved in all of the new or newish European left parties, quite a number of those parties come from backgrounds closer to that of the ULA than they do to that of, say, Die Linke. The Left Bloc was founded as an alliance between a Trotskyist group and a Maoist group, for instance. The Red Green Alliance similarly. Two different French Trotskyist groups have a “foothold” electorally of somewhat greater significance than that which Trotskyists enjoy in Ireland. The SSP was not the only one of the “broad left” parties which came out of far left cadre groups by any means.
3) Dilettante is completely correct that any imagined “left” party emerging from the likes of our half in half out Labour TDs would be markedly less radical than even the most conservative of the new left parties on the Continent. Roisin Shorthall is not Bertinotti or Melanchon or Tsipras. She’s been accused of many things over the years, but radicalism is not one of them.
4) These “broad left” parties or “new workers parties” or whatever you want to call them, didn’t drop from the sky. They came out of significant splits from preexisting parties, or, more often, they emerged from significant social struggles and around a core of smaller left groups. The ULA is, like it or not, strikingly similar to the precursors of quite a number of such parties.
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Re: 2) I’m aware that Trotskyists are organised in some of these parties, which is why I referred to “platforms” in the original post. But they don’t dominate them in the same way they do the ULA (maybe the Portuguese Left Bloc is different; I don’t know much about it). If there were such a broad left party in Ireland, it would make sense for the SP/SWP to be part of it but I don’t think it would work as a broad left if they were the main forces within it; other left TDs just would not sign up.
I would also classify the SSP a bit differently since it emerged directly out of the Trotskyist tradition, albeit having taken a wee moderate term in the interim.
The classic profile of the continental broad left is old communists plus dissident socialists and a few green radicals. In the Irish context, it’s interesting to see the way old Workers’ Party people — Catherine Murphy and Halligan would be logical parts of any broad left organisation.
Your reference to France is puzzling. Since Laguillier and Besancenot both “retired”, their parties seemed to have disappeared from the map (at least electorally), with Melenchon (ex-Trot himself) stealing their thunder plus many activists. Maybe they have a few councillors but they have no deputies, senators or MEPs between them. You do yourselves a disservice. Getting 2 TDs and 1 MEP elected in small conservative country is quite an achievement for the followers of The Old Man, I would say. Certainly more than he ever achieved himself! Ho ho
Re: 3) Point taken about Shorthall but Melenchon was himself a run-of-the-mill minister in Jospin’s government and still regards Mitterrand as his political hero so there is quite a lot of differences between him and, say, Joe Higgins — more even than separates him from Hollande. Brougham has a bit more heft though, having opposed coalition from the start. And, dare I say it, but Clare Daly is now an obvious candidate (at least eventually, once she gets over Wallace) to be leader of a broad left party. And a clearly-defined leader would be a good idea in my opinion.
Re: 4) Indeed parties don’t drop from the sky, but between a few left Labour people, WP retreads, and Daly, it shouldn’t be too difficult to figure out some basic shared principles and values, minus the dogma which defines the SP and SWP. No to coalition with FF and FG would have to be non-negotiable, but, given the way things are going, they would have a decent shot at power in the medium term as part of coalition with Sinn Fein. The ULA just will never be in that position, I’m afraid. Nor would they want to be!
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Your entire post is misconceived.
No, Broughan doesn’t have more “heft”, if by “heft” you mean significant political radicalism. None of the TDs you are talking about, with the exception of those ULA TDs you are intent on conscripting to your imaginary party, are remotely left wing enough to be comfortable even on the right most edge of the parties of the European left you keep comparing them to. Shortall, Broughan, Nulty, Murphy, etc, etc simply are not radicals of that sort and, this isn’t simply me criticising them: They would not claim to be radicals of that sort. They don’t think or speak or act in those terms.
Further, your claim that there’s some “classic profile” of “old communists plus dissident socialists and a few green radicals” amongst the new left parties in Europe shows a rather limited understanding of those parties. These simply are not the origins of the Left Bloc, the SSP, the Red Green Alliance, the Dutch Socialist Party etc, in any way, shape or form. All of those parties grew out of hard left cadre formations which had more in common with the Socialist Party or SWP than they had with Roisin Shortall or Tommy Broughan. They are all the direct descendants of Trotskyist and Maoist groups in varying combinations.
In fact, I’m not sure that a single one of the European parties fits your alleged “classic profile” bar perhaps the FdeG. Some come out of hard left cadre formations, some come out of splits in the Communist Party, some are based around the Communist Party itself. The origins of those parties are very diverse, but
1) They overwhelmingly come from a “further left” background, whether that be a CP or left of the CP cadre groups.
2) In fact, they almost never involve any significant split from the former social democracy at all, certainly not in their early years. The FdeG is the only exception I can think of, and even then the ex-social democratic component is both very much a minority strand and also itself has a much more radical past than anything that’s ever going to come out of the LP here.
3) Nor do any of them involve any significant contribution from Green Parties, at least that I can think of off the top of my head.
4) None of them are based around gathering up various independent politicians of different stripes. They all came out of preexisting organisations or combinations of organisations.
I can at least thank you though for providing me with the wonderfully amusing mental image of Roisin Shortall, Tommy Broughan, Clare Daly and Joan Collins sitting down to “figure out some basic shared principles and values”, particularly as you think it wouldn’t be “too difficult”. I don’t think whoever had to clean the blood out of the seats would be as entertained however. Here’s a clue: They don’t have basic shared principles and values.
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Interesting post Pasanario.
A couple of things though.
1) While you might be right that there is nowhere else in Europe (or anywhere else in the world) that Trotskyists as Trotskyists have the same sort of electoral foothold as here, there are significant Trotskyist groups involved in broader left outfits in other countries (admittedly not of the SP/SWP variety), eg.Red-Green Alliance in Denmark or the Left Bloc in Portugal. The only place where a similar combination of forces to the ULA have had any success is in Scotland. There may be good historical and geographical reasons why this is the case.
2) The examples you mention (Die Linke/ Syriza/ Dutch Socialist Party/ Front de Gauche) are pretty much the exception and not the rule. Most countries in Europe don’t have such parties/coalitions. And where they do exist they do so within their own historical and political contexts (eg. Die Linke is based on the old SED in the GDR, along with disaffected social democrats from the old FRG; .the Dutch Socialist Party are old Maoists who grew up). In the Irish political context I wonder what might be the best base for such a broad left?
3) An attempt to establish “a Labour breakaway around Broughan, Shorthall,and Nulty” would be interesting. And if they managed to attract some of the more social democratic independents then so much the better. But let’s not delude ourselves – such a party would be nothing like “Die Linke/ Syriza/ Dutch Socialist Party/ Front de Gauche”
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Re: 2) Well that’s already four major European countries with large broad left parties/ alliances. You could also add RC in Italy and why exclude the Danish Red-Green alliance
and the Left Bloc? In Ireland, you could build off Labour dissidents, WP retreads, and Clare Daly (and maybe Joan Collins and Boyd-Barrett). In other words — disaffected social democrats, old commies, and Trots having mid-life crises. Classic broad left profile.
Re: 3) I wouldn’t underestimate it. Currently, Sinn Fein is the only party with a national reach which is opposed to austerity. They are doing well out of this but lots of people remain deeply uneasy about the Shinners and they’re riddled with contradictions. So if you had a coherent broad left party, without IRA/ Sean Quinn/ Northern Cuts baggage, then it could start making the running like Syriza who were nowhere a few years ago. It’s a big “if” of course and I don’t actually see it happening but there’s no reason that it couldn’t. With some capable, well-respected TDs and an articulate leader who can bring them together, it could work. At the very least, it would gobble up a lot of Labour votes from the last election and maybe some of the populist vote which used to go to FF. Incidentally, I think that FF remains doomed so that will open up a lot of space.
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Certainly more than he ever achieved himself!
Well, he was quite prominent in the Russian Revolution and the Red Army, but I think we can overlook that.
(Apologies. I really don’t want to derail a useful discussion. Please do not give this comment more attenton than it merits.)
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Well, whoever is in it there is room for some kind of broad left/social democratic party. Perhaps it will come out of the campaign against the household and water charges.
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Pasionario, I think if you read my post again you’ll find that I’m the one who mentioned the Danish Red-Green Alliance and the Left Bloc in Portugal.
The RC in Italy seems to be a bit of a shambles at present, so let’s leave them to one side.
Also you missed the bit I said about the “historical and political contexts”.
In Ireland republicanism is a significant part of the political landscape on the left (or if you prefer, among the working class). You implicitly recognise this by referring to the WP, (didn’t they used to have some baggage too?) but seem determined to exclude the shinners.
It may be that ‘s a pragmatic approach, on the grounds that they would dominate any broad alliance to the left of the Labour Party – therefore better to get on with things without hem. (And in any case why would the shinners be interested in being dragged down by “disaffected social democrats, old commies, and Trots having mid-life crises”?)
It could be that a new outfit as you describe (with it’s photogenic media friendly young leader) could overtake SF.
But there’s something that makes me wonder if that isn’t exactly your motivation for promoting the idea?
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With respect Dilettante I can’t speak for anyone else but my notion that there’s space for a broad left party isn’t motivated by a desire to shift SF out of that space. It does however have something to do with my feeling that, having voted SF in the last local, Euro and general elections, I’m not sure if they occupy the space in question. They haven’t been notably left wing when governing in the North and for me their attitude towards Sean Quinn is telling. I couldn’t care less about their baggage from the past at this stage.
It’s alright to preach in the abstract but the test of a party is surely how they react to the concrete. And the problem is that SF representatives have backed a union bashing big businessman because it’s politically useful for them in that area. Which raises doubts as to how they might act in other situations which affected the party politically. And a couple of mealy mouthed ‘the law must take its course’ statements from the likes of Mary Lou McDonald don’t change that.
In any event I think it’s important to nail the idea that any new party is likely to be of the hard right wing variety because this is a key line peddled by the likes of Gilmore and O’Connor in their counsels against any kind of militancy on the left, as if the Colonels would move in and take over were Labour and the Unions anything other than slavish as regards austerity.
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Interesting stuff Pasanario.
However, until there’s some sign of cohesion beyond and above the ULA (or even within the ULA….) it’s a bit like picking your Fantasy Football League team at the moment.
One thing struck me in passing though: of the leftish names you mentioned as being outside the PLP or SF, fully half are women – which given the pathetic level of female representation in the Dail (14%?) shows that the left is, in one way at least, prefiguring the society we would like to see.
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[…] There is a gap to the Left of Labour also, indeed probably a bigger gap than that of the right. Or as EamonnCork recently put it […]
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[…] Hogan and James Reilly. According to Sunday’s RedC poll, loyal Labour voters now make up just 1.82% of the electorate. And with this just 18 months into a coalition with Fine Gael and the IMF, a […]
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