Rejoice! Rejoice! The property market is ‘stabilising’… sort of. January 2, 2013Posted by WorldbyStorm in Economy, Irish Politics.
Though reading the fine print… perhaps not so much. As reported in the Irish Times today:
Further evidence of the stabilisation of the Dublin property market is contained in new data released today.
And what glad tidings – or not, given the centrality of inflated house prices in this state to aspects of the crash – suggest this happy outcome?
Property prices in south County Dublin rose by 3 per cent in the last quarter of 2012, when compared with the same period in 2011.
Well then… And…
This is the first such increase noted since 2007 and is one of a number of indicators of a stabilising market in Dublin contained in new figures from online websites MyHome.ieand Daft.ie.
Not that they’d have a horse in this particular race – eh? The odd thing though is the evidence that it’s not stabilising, evidence culled from its own data. For example MyHome.ie found that.
…the asking price for houses in Dublin fell by 1.6 per cent in the final quarter of last year, reversing the rise of identical magnitude identified in the previous quarter.
However, the annual rate of decline for the capital for 2012 came out at 12 per cent, the lowest rate for Dublin in four years.
But it’s still a decline. And a fairly significant one at that. As is the following:
Nationally, asking prices for houses declined by 2.9 per cent in the final quarter of last year, bringing the annual rate of decline to 14.8 per cent, according to MyHome.ie. There was a marked difference between the time it took for properties to be sold in cities and in rural areas.
What to make of this?
The two websites use different methodologies and this accounts for their different outcomes. Nationally, the year-on-year decline for 2012 was 9 per cent, as compared with 18 per cent at the end of 2011, according to Daft.ie. This showed that nationally, the property market was “stabilising but not yet stabilised”, Mr Lyon said.
Perhaps, perhaps, or we could take the words of Alan McQuaid from some time back about the prospects for a genuine stabilisation of the ‘market’ where he noted it would require economic growth and falling unemployment to assure any ‘normalisation’ of the property market.
Given that the Government itself doesn’t expect unemployment to dip below 13 per cent any time soon I’d wonder just how (overly) optimistic those reports are.
There’s a larger question as well, and I reference it above. Given the artificiality of the housing market and house prices across the late 1990s and on into the 2000s it seems that there might be a fair way yet for prices to fall in any case. And let’s not forget the potential effects of the property tax in – ahem – suppressing house prices and values in the near future. By the way, has the IT divested itself of myhome.ie? For there is no mention of an interest in that entity in the article.