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Retail sales in November and the state of the economy… January 7, 2013

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Economy, Irish Politics.

In the Irish Times today…

The volume of retail sales fell by 1.1 per cent in November as demand for electrical goods and fuel decreased dramatically.
Sales of electrical goods were down 17.8 per cent in the month, while fuel sales were down 3.2 per cent.

Retail Ireland suggest that it was…

….the scheduling of the budget in December last year. The kite flying for Budget 2013 did not help retail sales or consumer sentiment and caused many consumers to postpone their spend,” Retail Excellence Ireland chief executive David Fitzsimons said.

But is it a case of postponing their spend or not having the money in the first place. This isn’t simply a matter of semantics. Anyone with any sense and limited income, which is pretty much all of us, will have been looking at 2013 with some degree of trepidation for a long time now. And 2014. And 2015. And as for kite flying, it would be an interesting exercise to go back and see how much of what was flown didn’t wind up in the Budget… my sense was that there was much less kite flying than previously. And those which were flown were broadly on the money.

None of which is to say that there was no effect, though it will be interesting to see the December/January figures to see how much was delayed and how much was retained (or wasn’t there at all). Again, my sense from December and various events was that money was very tight well after the Budget. Any thoughts?


1. Pasianario - January 7, 2013

This if off topic but I was quite surprised to read Dan O’Brien’s denunciation of Frau Merkel today:


It concludes with him expressing the hope that she lose the next election; hadn’t figured the man for a supporter of the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands but there you go.


LeftAtTheCross - January 7, 2013

In fairness he didn’t say he wanted the SPD to win the election, only that he didn’t rate Merkel. Given his aversion to overt ideology one would have to assume he wants a more Bismark-like leader of the CDU as Chancellor.


WorldbyStorm - January 7, 2013

I don’t think that’s off topic at all Pasianario, I had missed that article but cheers for it.

LATC you’re right, but I guess functionally what other alternative can he imagine there is?


CL - January 8, 2013

Dan O’Brien may not like her but Merkel is very popular in Germany. She has succeeded in imposing certain aspects of ordoliberalism on the Eurozone. There is little ideological difference between the CDU and the SPD.


2. que - January 7, 2013

was talking to the parents at christmas who were mentioning the positive news of the increased spend in christmas. I was saying how the important data was November – if people saved in november then spending in Decemeber wasnt truly a good omen. So January likely to be abysmal as well i guess. Wonder will this get the same traction in the media


3. irishelectionliterature - January 7, 2013

Was actually going to do a post on this in relation to the lack of Cross border shopping this year compared to previous years. Have read a few pieces and heard a few bits on the radio about increased retail sales and none mentioned the trouble over flags in Belfast and elsewhere and the impact that was having on cross border shopping.
I didn’t hear of many even going as far as Newry this year where in previous years I’ve had offers to travel there or to get stuff for me whilst people where there.
How true it is I dont know, but I heard that there were quite a few down from the North shopping in Dublin.


Dr.Nightdub - January 8, 2013

With the euro so weak against sterling, there’d be far less incentive for southerners to go north than in previous years, whereas shopping in Dublin would be a more attractive option for people in the north.


4. Forbolg - January 7, 2013

What about a comprehensive name,quote and shame for all the gobshites of the Irish commentariat who talked up the Celtic Tiger to the bitter end and who are now just as enthusiastically calling for one more big push on the austerity front?


WorldbyStorm - January 8, 2013

Great idea Forbolg.


5. doctorfive - January 8, 2013

Meanwhile, IBEC urges Government to charge the property tax at twice the level proposed –

“provides the opportunity to lessen the burden on business”


6. CL - January 8, 2013

DUBLIN (Reuters) – Irish retail sales volumes fell on a monthly basis for the first time in five months in November but traders entered 2013 with cautious optimism after reporting their busiest Christmas period since the financial crisis began.


7. PaddyM - January 8, 2013

Sales of electrical goods were down 17.8 per cent in the month

…having shot up over the previous month.

One word: Saorview.


WorldbyStorm - January 8, 2013

Yeah, that’s a good point and one that hadn’t struck me.


PaddyM - January 8, 2013

Ah well, you see, that’s what comes of being a bunch of hard left objectively pro-jihadist Dubliners with your Craig Doyle cable television on which to watch all these anti-American fillums 😉


8. Joe - January 8, 2013

Business chap (stockbroker or some such) on Morning Ireland this morning. About the NTMA going “to the market” for about €2bn in bonds this week. I found him very interesting. He said that basically the top heads all across the world have succeeded with a massive PR spin in the last few months – that the worst is over, that the green shoots are showing. And that “the markets” are buying everything and anything (including Irish govt bonds) because they believe that they are pretty much guaranteed – that Central Banks will ensure that they are paid back come what may.
Anyway, for what it’s worth, he said there’ll probably be another Eurozone crisis in the latter half of 2013, presumably when this PR spin is seen to have been just that – spin.


LeftAtTheCross - January 8, 2013

Patrick Honohan’s view on the bond market highlights that the ECB is busy propping up that market in order to allow private bond investors to extract a return from their investments, and that the price being paid elsewhere for that by the state is a ‘poor reward’ as he puts it:


I had to Google the ‘OMT’ referenced in his comment, Outright Monetary Transactions, the ECB’s ‘backstop’ that was in the news last year:



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