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Labour at 7% , Ind and Others 25% “The Gilroy Gale?” March 30, 2013

Posted by irishelectionliterature in Uncategorized.
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Sunday Times Behaviour & Attitudes poll tomorow, more bad news for Labour.
Fine Gael 27% (+1);
Fianna Fail 23% (-1);
Labour 7% (-4);
Sinn Fein 15% (-4);
Ind and Others 25% (+7)
Greens 2 (-1)

Two striking things here, Labour being down at 7% and Independents and Others up 7% to 25 %.
The poll was taken before The Meath East By-Election.

Naturally I’ve been reading a lot of Labours recent material and it struck me that a lot of it was self congratulatory in tone.
In my own house and homes around the country ballots are going back on Croke Park II, most of them voting ‘No’.
Public Servants are working more hours for less pay and in most cases there is little or no chance for promotion due to various embargos. They see Croke Park II as very disruptive to family life and childcare which only adds to the disgruntlement with the agreement.
Many in the public sector now feel utterly betrayed by Labour and now the Property Tax bills are coming through the door too.
One of the things I’ve seen when discussing the Property TAx is its not just the tax but the valuation scheme reminds so many people that their house is worth way less than the mortgage and that causes further resentment.

As it was before Meath East the jump in Ind/Others support is hardly a “Gilroy Gale” but you never know.
As an aside I wonder how long the polling organisations will take to include our friends DDI as an option?

more on the poll later on in the week.

Comments»

1. ivorthorne - March 30, 2013

How long until Independents and Others get some more specific data?

Based on their voting record in government, Labour deserve everything coming to them. Listening to the Labour talking heads over the past few days, it is clear they are completely out of touch. They talk about selling their achievements better but the problem is that they broke most of their promises and they blame the voters for this failure. We keep hearing that they’d actually be representing our interests if more of us had voted for them.

Feic off Labour.

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2. doctorfive - March 30, 2013

Adrian Kavanagh’s seats

Fine Gael 55, Fianna Fail 43, Sinn Fein 22, Labour 3, Green Party, Independents and Others 35.

http://politicalreform.ie/2013/03/23/fianna-fails-long-march-forward-halted-for-now-sunday-business-post-red-c-poll-24th-march-2013/

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RosencrantzisDead - March 30, 2013

Labour 3

!!?!

Words fail me. That would be apocalyptic. It would dwarf the implosion of the Greens in ’11 and Fine Gael in ’02.

Even if he is ‘low-balling’ the numbers, this means that sub-10 seats is a very, very likely outcome for them.

One must ask the question: would any seemingly (sane) liberal or left-leaning party become the junior partner in a coalition after this?

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hardcore for nerds - March 30, 2013

That has to be the question… do SF count as sane or left/liberal enough to qualify? Assuming that the days of overall majorities are gone, FF/FG have to coalesce with someone (and to do so with each other would be to remove their reasons for separate existence)… perhaps look to Italy as a precursor to future post-austerity electoral stalemate here. The smart money has to be on expediency/power-lust winning out ultimately, though.

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doctorfive - March 30, 2013

+1 on the smart money.

I remember watching clips of the pre-coalition Labour conference and several highly impassioned speech urging them in with FG. So much of the talk we heard just vanished. Much of the grand Labour in Government rhetoric morphed into we we’re given a mandate to get the country back on track quick enough.

Can’t blame the opposition and FG won’t be giving an inch so they are going to at least need some new bullshit to get them the summer. Even then the spectre of communications problems didn’t do Brian Cowen any good.

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ejh - March 31, 2013

You may recall my asking something similar just after the election. Most of them seem to suffer badly for making that choice, but they keep on doing it all the same.

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3. CMK - March 30, 2013

+1 on the ‘self congratulatory’ point. Labour are dug in, though, and I expect them to see it through to the bitter end. Even if there is a split in the parliamentary party between now and 2016 I would expect enough Labour people to stick with FG and see the government out, particularly the pension hunters who have more important things to think about than trivia like relieving the burden on the Irish working class.

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shea - March 30, 2013

if they do hold out to 2016 how far do people think labour can drop? below 5% by christmas wouldn’t be an unreasonable prediction would it?

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4. shea - March 30, 2013

looks a bit more like the red c figure. have they altered there methodology?

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5. Behaviours and Attitudes: And then there were two.. « Slugger O'Toole - March 30, 2013

[…] Lounge have the figures for tomorrow’s Behaviours and Attitudes poll in the Sunday […]

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6. irishelectionliterature - March 30, 2013

The thing is that Labour think they are making a difference. Their current claims are having delivered the following
1 -Renegotiated EU/IMF deal
2 -Protected Core social welfare rates
3 – Legislating for the X case
4 -Investing 2bn in Schools
5 -Introduced 500m extra wealth taxes

1-FG will get the votes from the EU/IMF deal as Labour intimated they’d burn bondholders
2-Note the word ‘core’ has crept in .
3 -Has the government X-Case legislation been voted on yet? Savita Halappanavar died on Labours watch . Yes others have been in government for years but if Labour had wanted to it would have brought in legislation prior to Savitas death.
4 -Fair enough
5 -What are these Wealth Taxes? The Property Tax?

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7. The Warden - March 30, 2013

“Public Servants are working more hours for less pay and in most cases there is little or no chance for promotion due to various embargos. They see Croke Park II as very disruptive to family life and childcare which only adds to the disgruntlement with the agreement.”

Pretty much sums up Labour’s perceived purpose in government, spokespeople for yet another interest group demanding special treatment. And their perceived failure for not having spent more political capital protecting a relatively privileged group from reality. Well, ho hum. Maybe they decided being the political wing of partnership was a dead end in the long run. And they’re probably correct on that score.

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RosencrantzisDead - March 30, 2013

spokespeople for yet another interest group demanding special treatment.

How is this different from any other Irish political party?

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6to5against - March 31, 2013

Actually, in this case, I think it’s a group refusing special treatment.

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8. Tomboktu - March 30, 2013

Adrian Kavanagh’s seats

Fine Gael 55, Fianna Fail 43, Sinn Fein 22, Labour 3, Green Party, Independents and Others 35.

Looks like it could be Pat Rabbitte, Ruairí Quinn, and John Lyons to as the Labour TDs on Adrian Kavanagh’s analysis. Yikes

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RosencrantzisDead - March 30, 2013

I think he has Roisin Shortall, Eric Byrne, and Pat Rabbitte as his trio.

The way Rabbitte gets on, I am inclined to think he does not want to fight the next election. Why else would you act like such an ass?

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Tomboktu - March 30, 2013

Indeed. I was confusing DSC with DSE.

On the other hand, Shortall won’t be Labour.

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9. Tawdy - March 30, 2013

The main question has to be wither thou goest!

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