Latest Sunday Business Post/RedC poll… September 14, 2013
Posted by WorldbyStorm in Irish Politics, The Left.trackback
…and it’s broadly margin of error changes…
Fine Gael 27 (-1%), Fianna Fáil 23 (+1%), Independents and Others 23 (+2%), Sinn Féin 17 (NC), Labour 10 (-2%).
As to the Seanad…
The “Don’t knows” have increased by three to 15%, but when they are excluded, 59% are in favour of abolishing the Seanad, up one on the previous month’s poll, and 41% are against – down one.
Will that change in the intervening weeks when the ‘campaigns’ catch fire? And what about turnout?
More on the polls next week.
The Cedar Lounge Revolution 
Kavanagh seat projections. Yikes!
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Yikes indeed. Worse than 1987!
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Kavanagh predicts 10 seats for Labour using his model which is based on using the 2011 General Election…..
Two of those constituencies (Dublin West and Dublin North West) contain ex Labour TDs in Roisin Shortall and Patrick Nulty . They are bound to take some of the Labour vote in those constituencies, so it could actually be less than 10.
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I would read it as a seat each for Labour and Nulty in DW, for Labour and Broughan in DBN, Keaveney taking the Labour seat in Galway East and Shortall losing out to Labour in DNW.
The real question is do respondents to the opinion poll perceive the Labour “gene-pool” TDs to be “Labour” or “independent”?
Depending on the answer, either the Labour or the Independent vote is slightly overstated.
My guess is that at least some of the “Labour” vote in certain constituencies is actually a “Labour independent” vote.
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The 10 seats also include Dublin Bay North which includes dissident Labour TD, Tommy Broughan, and loyal Labour TD Sean Kenny.
Support for all Labour dissident TDs except Colm Keaveney who has left the Labour Party, is included in the 10% Labour Poll figure.
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The Labour figure of 10% in this Red C Poll is approximately equivalent to the recent poll figure of 8% in Millward Brown (Sunday Independent). I have shown this in my comment “How Red C disproportionately elevates the Labour Party in Polls”. See: http://politicalreform.ie/2013/08/17/so-what-for-silly-season-politics-looking-at-the-august-opinion-polls/#comments
Adrian Kavanagh, on politicalreform.ie, has also remarked that the Labour score in Red C polls is persistently higher than in other Polls
When Adrian Kavanagh distributed seats based on the 8% score in Millward Brown, he allocated only 3 seats to Labour!
There is a “tipping point” towards virtual exstinction for Labour as its score dips just below 10% (See Adrian Kavanaghs Analysis on Politicalreform.ie yesterday).
The degree of information given in SB post with the poll to-day is very minimal.
There is no regional breakdown, no figure for confidence in party leaders, no figure for confidence in government, no “raw” data
It puts “undecideds” at 18%. I assume that this is after 10 percentage points have been discarded on the grounds that they are unlikely to vote as is usual with Red C. Those not expressing a preference in the MB poll came to 37%.
Interestingly, it puts the figure for actual independents at a “reduced” 16% out of the 23% for “Independents and others”. I assume that this means that the total for Greens, Workers and Unemployed Action, People before Profit, Socialist Party, Workers Party and other registered small parties is 7%!
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Figures here
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[…] Well, well, well. This seems to align fairly closely with the last RedC poll, does it not? […]
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[…] does though, in comparison to the most recent RedC/SBP polls appear to overstate the Fianna Fáil vote and understate the Independent/Others vote. Now this may […]
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