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Irish Times poll: Farewell the Seanad September 30, 2013

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Irish Politics.
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From the IT this morning, those figures are pretty convincing.

When undecided voters are excluded, the poll indicates the abolition proposal is backed by 62 per cent, with 38 per cent in favour of retaining the Upper House.

Any space there for an upset?

Some 44 per cent of respondents said they would vote to abolish the Seanad, 27 per cent said they would vote to retain it, 21 per cent did not know how they would vote and 8 per cent said they would not vote.

Even if one is deeply dubious about the latter figure which will likely be multiples of that larger, it doesn’t look good for the Seanad. Interesting to consider what the political outcomes of abolition could be? Good for Kenny or FG or the LP or SF? And what of the remaining Senators eking out the days to their end? A newly minted awkward squad or likely to go with good grace given the electorate has spoken?

Comments»

1. rockroots - September 30, 2013

There’ll possibly be a few high-profile government TDs kicking themselves after the next election if they lose their seats and have to look for a real job!

Of course it’s part of the anti-democratic bathwater we’re about to throw out with the upper house baby, but I think we’ll be politically poorer without the likes of Senator John Crown, who are pretty unlikely to go into Dail electioneering.

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2. Daniel Sullivan - September 30, 2013

The public view appears pretty solidly for abolition with no real trend either upwards or downwards, it’s about 60/40 with more upside for Yes campaign in the polling than the No the whole time.

Yet it will come down to turnout and if the Yes voter pool is more reflective of the ordinary voter and that ordinary voter ends up being less inclined to vote than the rarer No voter who may be more inclined to turn out then the No side could still win. If turnout is under 30% then it’s very much leaning towards a No vote but in excess of 35% and I’d say Yes will prevail. The older, more urban, more middle class the voting pool on the day and the more it could be the No’s day. Oireachtas Inquiries was 57/20 days before polling (though we had the Alan Shatter special appearance on that one)

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Daniel Sullivan - October 8, 2013

I wished I’d noted this more widely.

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3. Tawdy - September 30, 2013

Maybe I need a good kick in the arse, I still think that when it all comes down to it, the voting that is, it will really and truly depend on how many people actually vote ( and how ). Not on what people say to opinion pollesters. Or am I being just to obvious?

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Eagle - October 2, 2013

Absolutely true. If there is one number above that is a lie it’s the “8%” who said they won’t vote. My guess is that turnout will be very, very low.

I mean, seriously, the Seanad? Who cares? It’s gotta be a ‘No’ simply because the government is trying to sell this as some form of real reform.

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