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Speaking of polls… March 31, 2014

Posted by WorldbyStorm in British Politics.
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…some strange one’s in the UK. In the wake of the Budget it appeared that the Labour lead was dipping – in some instances significantly. And yet, and yet, the extremely good UK Polling Report notes that there remains a projected Labour majority of 32 – which is down and the average is 37 for the LP and 34 for Tories with 10 for the LDs.

This weekend brought two polls, one from the Observer which had Con 32, Lab 33, LD 10 and UKIP on 15, and another from the Sunday Times which had Con 33, Lab 40, LD 9 and UKIP 11.

This variability suggests that there’s considerable churn, but it also suggests

And as UK PR notein relation to the ST poll:

These would have been perfectly normal a fortnight ago, but contrast with the average Labour leads of two points or so that we’ve had for the last week. All the normal caveats apply – it could be a sign that the post-budget narrowing of the polls is coming to an end and things are headed back to the pre-budget situation, or it could just be random sample error, and next week’s polls will be back to leads of one or two points. Wait and see.

UK PR also reflects on the figures on the European Election voting intentions from the ST where tellingly, “CON 24%, LAB 32%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 23%, GRN 5%.”. Difficult not to think that that reflects a clearer assessment (in terms of distance between LP and Tory) than the headline figures seen elsewhere given that the Euro’s are imminent – though it also points up the danger for the LP that much of its vote can be ‘captured’ as it were.

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