The European Election line-up in Dublin… April 24, 2014
Posted by WorldbyStorm in Irish Politics, The Left.trackback
… what do people think of it? Is it, as has been put to me elsewhere, a weak line-up from most of the political parties? And at this point are any of the candidates beginning to break away from the rest of the pack? What is the general sense of things?
Obviously there’s no party line here, and it’s not my place to suggest how people would vote, other than encouraging people to vote and participate in the election as fully as possible, but for myself my bottom line is no vote for parties or individuals that espouse the socio-economic orthodoxy of austerity. That leaves a lot of leeway, but so what?
And just on the locals. I can’t claim any special knowledge, but my sense is that the sheer weight of numbers of don’t knows and Independent/Other leaning voters has to be good news for anyone who is contesting these elections. Not, and I’d always stress this, that there’s any such thing as a sure bet, but that if one is genuinely interested in political activity this is a good election to be facing into and that even if people lose they can profitably use the next five years or so to consolidate themselves in constituencies.
It’s an odd time, where political materials have been in evidence in quantity for weeks now. Theoretically we as citizens have had the potential to be engaged as rarely before – though to a lesser effect given that those holding meetings are focused on local and European elections and not national ones, and yet, the dominance of the orthodoxy sucks away life from that proposition.
The Cedar Lounge Revolution 
Obviously ,I would like Lynn Boylan to win and this far out she looks to be very strong.However I do not rule out a media onslaught and the use of fake polls (Quantum Research) in an attempt to influence the result.Such is their hatred of SF that they may even row in behind others on the left who they regard as the lesser of two evils.
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FFS, there zero, I repeat zero, chance that the Independent Group News and Media, the Times, RTE and Newstalk will promote Murphy or Smith over Boylan. The media have to balance the need to marginalise SF electorally while simultaneously cultivating them as potential ‘moderates’ given that the media know full well that SF in government in the South will be a very safe pair of hands and that SF will not hesitate, like Labour before them, to drop their voters in it for a chance at government. SF are a mainstream in waiting; this election is just another step in the taming process and by 2016 SF will probably be fully house trained and rendered non-threatening. Boylan is a lightweight and it will be tragedy for Irish workers if she ends up sitting in the Euro parliament in preference to Murphy or indeed Smith. I know well who out of those three the establishment would prefer to see there and it ain’t Murphy or Smith.
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Bang on that man!
+1
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Funnily enough, some of us can remember back to the 2009 campaign and a lengthy opinion piece by the editor of the Daily Mail encouraging people to vote for Joe Higgins to stop Mary Lou McDonald getting elected.
The reality is that the political and media establishment do not see Murphy or Smith as political threats and they do see Sinn Féin in that vein.
Hence, the continued negative focus from the political and media elite on Sinn Féin, contrasted with their more indulgent attitude towards others on the left.
It’s perfectly fine for someone to take a political position that the establishment are wrong to do so and that Sinn Féin will ‘drop their voters in it’, as you put it. I may not agree with you on it, but I can accept that as a valid political analysis to bring to the debate.
But the only place where Paul Murphy and Bríd Smith are considered as political threats is in the ever-fertile imagination of the Trotskyist left.
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“Others on the left” implies that SF are on the left, and you and Roddy and I all know that’s not true, Justin. To the left of the sado-austerity consensus in the South, certainly, at least while in opposition, but a solid, would-be respectable, capitalist party nonetheless. As ultimately reliable down here as they are up there.
As for the rest of your post, I actually partly agree with you. The more loopy right wing end of the media here really does think that SF, with their nationalism, the now mostly dried blood on their hands and their leftish populist rhetoric, pose a serious threat to the established order. This view is as barking mad as the same elements’ views on much else, but it is genuinely held.
By contrast, these people view the socialist left as a noisy annoyance rather than a threat. This view is not obviously deranged given the relative marginality of the left.
Those elements don’t encompass the whole of the right wing media however, and there are further sighted commentators who are likely to go down the route CMK describes: making sure that SF’s house training is complete. That they can be trusted not to pee on the carpet down here, just as they have shown they can be trusted up North.
And he is right to point out the far from rare positive press that Pearse, MaryLou and the rest of the “better suited to selling insurance than to radical politics” brigade get. So “competent”, such good “performers”, so “on top of their brief”. Technocratic praise for an age where serious political or economic dissent is forbidden.
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Terrified of losing your seat on the gravy train Mark P? How much is it worth to the SP?
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You seem weirdly obsessed with the notion that the Socialist Party is dependent on European money. Presumably that’s what your SWP friends believe but it isn’t true.
As for losing the seat, it is always going to be a challenge to win one of three seats across Dublin in the absence of some huge shift to the left. Just as it was when Joe won it.
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Justin, 2009 was another world electorally you might as well be taking about 1989. In 2009 the establishment’s preferred political set – 1st team FF and coalition partner; reserve team FG/Lab – was delivering the goods and seemed robust enough. SF were marginal at that point – I think they had five seats in the Dáil?
Post 2011 and SF are emerging as having real reserve team potential given their current Dáil strength and their current polling. Their ‘anti-austerity’ rhetoric is understood by the establishment to be just that: rhetoric. SF in the North recently voted through a paradigmatic austerity demand – career average pensions for public servants – and there is no reason to suppose they won’t do similar things here.
SF’s capitalist buddies in the US know that a certain amount of this kind of talk has to be indulged as a useful means to build electoral support. A good example of SF’s business acumen, giving the punters what they want. But they also know that SF are solid on retaining capitalism and prioritizing business.
But as the Civil War political fix up fragments as the state and society is re-structured into a permanent austerity polity, SF are being turned to as a stabiliser.
SF have already ‘dropped their voters in it’ with their antics over the past five years. Every single headline austerity measures has been condemned by SF and that’s all. What have they done, in practical terms, to oppose, for instance, the household charge and the Local Property Tax? Nothing. They’ll make a big deal about the water charges, but will they advocate mass non-payment to try and defeat them. To draw on a well known phrase from the tribunal days: ‘will they f**k!’. They have not been adverse over the past three years to slagging off the smaller Left forces trying to muster their scant resources to build campaigns against these taxes. Murphy and Smith being at the forefront in these campaigns.
That pattern of rhetorical opposition to austerity and tacit collaboration with it by doing nothing to oppose it, will form the basis of any SF participation in a future government here.
The only positive thing is that SF might take a lesson from Labour’s forthcoming electoral annihilation and realise there are real costs to saying one thing and do another when it comes to austerity which is now the constitutional basis of the state after the Fiscal Treaty.
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This is the first election to the European Parliament where the parties have said who their candidate will be for President of the European Commission. I doubt that will bring a stronger sense of a shared Europe to the process, but it would be an interesting exercise to ask canvassers about their party’s planned nominee.
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I reckon Murphy will get in, on transfers from Boylan, who will also be elected. Unfortunately Hayes will top poll
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The line-up for the Euros in Dublin is weak for sure. I suppose in establishment terms Hayes is a “strong” candidate. Just on poll ratings you’d have to say he will be in for sure. Boylan probably too but she’ll need to show she has substance when she talks on the telly and radio. SF will need to get their vote out and that might be harder in a Euro rather than a local or Dáil election. The last seat will be about who comes out of the pack. I refer back again to the time McKenna got elected for the Greens – she came out of nowhere as the non-Establishment candidate du jour. Who will it be this time? Maybe Ryan or Childers?
On the locals, it’a a big change in Dublin with bigger 7, 8 and 9 seat constituencies. And as you say, the big number of people who don’t know or say they will vote for independents makes anything possible. But you need to be an independent with some kind of base to have a chance. People don’t put a 1 beside your name just because you are an independent. If they know you or know of you, they might.
What strikes me about my area of Finglas Cabra is how few candidates there are for seven seats. Three SF, three FF, two Lab, two FG, two independent socialists and possibly one other independent. Afaik that’s the lot. Given the weakness of Lab and FF in the polls, they’ll get at most one seat each (the Labour candidates have profiles in Finglas and Cabra respectively but the FFers are all new young lads and it’s quite possible they’ll end up with no seat). FG will also get one at most. Cllr Cieran Perry, independent socialist, should get back in. Bernie Hughes, United Left, should get a decent vote out of Finglas. If SF manage their vote and get their vote out they should get three in which would mean Hughes would lose out.
The fact that there’s so few decent candidates standing is probably a reflection of the redundancy of local government in Ireland. Why bother standing for election to a body which has little or no power? Which is also probably the reason that so many councillors resign from councils these days rather than seeing out their full term.
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Correction. I’ve just spotted that PBP have a candidate in Finglas Cabra too – David Gaughran.
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cmk,you can shout all you like but at the last euros Joe Higgins got much more favourable media coverage than Mary Lou .
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That was five years ago – SF were still like rabbits in the headlights, voting for the bank guarantee, for instance – and were a minor element of the ruling elite in this state. Post 2011 and with current polling the elite realizes that SF have to be integrated. Media hostility will be directed towards Gerry and Martin and any big bad Northerners who have a ‘record’ from 1969-1996 but Mary Lou, Pearse and Lynn will get glowing coverage as the house training process continues. The elite are grooming Pearse who will be delivering austerity budgets probably within five years time and people will be playing youtube clips of him fulminating against austerity in his past life. Much like that Eamon Gilmore anti-water charges leaflet is getting an outing now that Gilmore is unapologetic about introducing these charges.
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“SF were still like rabbits in the headlights, voting for the bank guarantee, for instance”
Sigh, http://www.rte.ie/news/2008/1017/109374-economy/.
Regurgitating Labour party talking points is just lazy.
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Not really. They voted both ways – rabbits in the headlight, in CMK’s apt phrase. Darting to both sides of the road.
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To paraphrase George Hamilton, SF were like a rabbit in the headlights of Lenihan’s bank guarantee, but this rabbit came with a suit of armour, in the form of a last-minute change of heart on the vote.
http://www.dangerhere.com/george-hamilton/
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Aye right enough ,the sindo et all will be supporting Lynn .I’ll cover any wager you want to put down that SFas a complete entity will face an independent news and media onslaught and Murphy will get kid glove treatment in comparison.
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Roddy – has SP killed anyone in the last few years and disappeared their remains?
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I’m beginning to suspect that someone in SF HQ has accidentally left a bot running on some server in the basement.
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It looks like the govt are pulling a predictable fast one with the Dail by elections.
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Is there a link Mark?
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http://www.newstalk.ie/Reports-2-byelections-will-go-ahead-on-the-same-day-as-the-local-and-europeans
It’s all “speculation” at the moment, but looks very likely. A stroke by FG to take advantage of being relatively cash rich and limit other’s ability to run a campaign. Also both Lab and FG will hope to take advantage of having more notice to prepare.
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I would have thought that having a by-election to fill a vacant seat is more “good democratic practice” than a “fast one”
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I’m not surprised at all that it appears that way to you.
The “fast one” isn’t the date. Either with the Euros and locals or with the by elections caused by these elections makes reasonable sense. The “fast one” was in setting out to give the impression that the later option would be taken and then announcing the decision to go early as late as possible. Go read the mainstream press, for whom politics is all about manoeuvres, if you want more detail.
As it happens, I suspect that FF were anticipating such a move and I know the SP were, but it may catch out others. More generally, the timing allows FG to use their financial muscle, while they hope others will be stretched by pre-existing European and local commitments.
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So (your faction of?) the SP is outraged by something that was completely foreseeable?
And your outrage is informed by the mainstream press?
And you’re worried about “financial muscle” when you’re throwing money at ads on the sides of buses?
For what it’s worth, Ruth Coppinger will probably win the by-election, but your whinging makes me think you’re already making excuses for expected failure.
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Dilettante, the idea that FF and FG have deeper pockets than the Socialist Party is so crushingly obvious, it takes real gumption to try and dispute it. How many golf classics with businessmen do you think will be held for Paul Murphy’s campaign?
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Ed
The advantages the SP have are that they are already concentrating resources on local election candidates in relatively few areas – including Dublin West, and that they have a sitting MEP for Dublin.
Weaving a by-election into that mix should be relatively easy and not too expensive.
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Diettante: I’m not outraged. I’m pointing out a minor stunt by a government party to give itself an advantage in a couple of by-elections. I don’t expect anything different and I certainly am not going to get worked up about it.
But I think I’ve wasted enough time responding to your relentless foolishness for one thread.
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I suspect over the next four weeks that the right-wing media will pretty much ignore SF. Any media attention, good or bad, is likely to increase support for SF and while they are being ‘house trained’ the establishment would still prefer SF to be a minority partner in a government.
In relation to the Euros the media have been pushing Ryan for several months now in an effort to ensure the left will not retain the MEP seat. They clearly realise now that Ryan will get savaged for his role in the FF/GP government during the next couple of weeks and switched to pushing Childers.
Childers is a bigger threat in that she is seen as decent and harmless and is transfer friendly. Despite the fact that she backed every austerity measure under the sun she is now ‘sorry’. Childers will keep out of any debates, dialogue, interviews as much as possible so that she won’t have to answer any questions. The problem for Childers is two-fold 1. she has no organisation on the ground, nobody knocking on doors, and 2. she supports water charges (and universal health insurance). Childers is transfer friendly at the moment but is vulnerable on water charges and could be undermined as a result.
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Good to see some of the SP are not as hysterical as others (hopefully this is not the beginning of a split)
The establishment will try to come to terms with any political change. This doesn’t mean that there is not a political change. Yes they would prefer that SF joins one of the establishment parties as a minority, but what if it doesn’t work like that and SF manages to head a government?
True that the race for the last seat is likely to be between the “left” that breaks out of the pack and FF.
Childers has the advantage of being mostly harmless (as far as most people are concerned),
In transfer terms Smith and Murphy have the advantage of not threatening the establishment (a bit like Childers). Hard to say which of them will be more transfer friendly for the middle-class (probably Murphy – good family/class background for picking up a lot of the Labour transfers – if he can get ahead of Costello)
If Ryan can get ahead of FitzPatrick then he’ll sweep up a lot of her transfers and take the seat. And he has the advantage of possible picking up a fair few of the middle-class “left” transfers.
Hard to call.
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This drivel is so transparent it’s hard not to laugh. Insinuations that Paul Murphy is posh from a supporter of Richard Boyd Barrett. No shortage of cheek, as usual.
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Why are two leading proponents of the working class, middle class – surely a failure of the Left. Childers is dithering twit, she should be elected comfortably.
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Yes but Mark, everyone knows about RBBs class origins, going to a private school etc so its a fair point to ask about Paul isn’t it? It shouldn’t matter of course, both men are “class traitors” as Paul Foot once said about himself.. I understand PM is from the Clonskeagh area, correct?
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E, criticising Boyd Barrett for his background rather than his politics, ideas or actions is indefensible stupidity and I’m certainly not going to engage in it. For an admirer of Boyd Barrett to try to use someone else’s background in that way goes beyond indefensible stupidity and adds a dose of rank hypocrisy.
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But why can’t these people stand aside to allow working class people to represent their own interests?
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Murphy is a candidate for the first time this year, RBB ran for the first time in 2002, I think. Were there left-wing working-class candidates in the field before they ran? If not, might it be a little more complicated than ‘standing aside’?
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‘In relation to the Euros the media have been pushing Ryan for several months now in an effort to ensure the left will not retain the MEP seat. They clearly realise now that Ryan will get savaged for his role in the FF/GP government during the next couple of weeks and switched to pushing Childers.’
I take the point you make here but I think it’s a bit misleading. The ‘left’ (SP) will not retain their MEP seat because there isn’t a strong enough candidate to do so. The money being spent by the SP seems exhorbitant and is in stark contrast to the limited campaign for JH, 5 years ago but it does illustrate just how difficult they see the challenge for PM. BS has less of a profile and doesn’t have the resources of the SP. I think they will both get a decent vote but both will be well off the pace I believe. It is a shame because there is a left seat there but it would need a candidate like Clare Daly, Joe Higgins or possibly Richard Boyd Barrett to pull it off. For the record I think the outcome will be 1. FG, 2.SF, 3. Childers (higher profile than Murphy and Smith – which will make her more transfer friendly, she will pull big chunks of Labour voters too).
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Murphy has to have name recognition by now, they really pushed the boat out on pr alright, would put him close to the top part of the race at this stage. Do people see hayes getting elected on the first count? surprised he is that popular, how much transfers will costello be able to send to him, if she gets a small vote he’d need to be near the quota for it to count, who else will send them to him? anacdotaly was under the impression that when greens did well it was at fg’s expense. Reading pheoinex today, they have ff in Dublin below 10%. Would suspect this one will be a long night.
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Outside of Dublin. A prediction informed by an FG source. South: 2 FG, 1 FF, 1 SF. North and West: 1 FG, 1 FF, 1 SF, 1 Ind.
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I would concur with those. Possible, though not probable, upset results would be Jim Higgins getting past both Ming and Harkin to give FG a second one in North and West. Or possibly Hartley for FF edging out Harris and Clune in Munster.
I hope O’Flynn does well in Munster, I know him of old and he is a tremendously genuine character without an ounce of opportunism or malice about him. He would be a fine presence in Europe and will probably get a bit of a GAA transfer from Sean Kelly but I don’t see him doing it. Hope I’m wrong.
I think there’ll be a very good battle for the last seat between Ming and Harkin and maybe even Mullen in Connacht. But Jim Higgins might trump the lot of them.
Hayes and Boylan are nailed on in Dublin, which is a big achievement by SF. Mary Fitzpatrick will probably be third on the first count and it will then depend on who out of Childers, Ryan and Murphy gets ahead to benefit from transfers from the others and from Costello or Smith. I think the SP have half a chance though not much more than that. Given that Nessa Childers has been willing to engage with people on this site and done so without defensiveness, I’d be well disposed towards her. And I’d like to see Brid Smith finish ahead of Emer Costello to render Labour’s humiliation absolute.
None of these results will change anything but it will provide a decent night’s entertainment.
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A good night’s entertainment and the odd bit in the coming weeks too, please God. As you say, that’s pretty much all it all is.
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I don’t know I’d go that far as to say it’s just entertainment, Joe.
I’d agree that the EU Parliament is at the moment pretty toothless (what parliament isn’t?) and most opposition must of necessity be extra-parliamentary, but the left there could be a focus for, for example, the resistance to TIPP.
Or even a longer term focus for the democratisation of the EU.
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There’s a poll in today’s Irish Indo of the Munster and Connacht/Ulster constituencies. Very interesting.
It would seem to suggest that in Connacht there will be seats for FF, but Thomas Byrne rather than Cope Gallagher, FG, Higgins and McGuinness running neck and neck and SF, Matt Carthy. The last one seems to be a toss-up between Harkin, Flanagan and the second FG candidate, probably whichever of the independents attracts the most transfers gets it. Total Labour vote collapse is striking and so is the fact that Ronan Mullen is down near the bottom, theories of a John Waters supporting silent majority notwithstanding.
In Munster it seems like Brian Crowley has about a quota and a half. Liadh Ni Riada for SF also polling well and one safe seat for FG, either Sean Kelly or Deirdre Clune. FG look favourites for the second because Kieran Hartley is hardly registering at all for FF and I think some of that Crowley vote is personal rather than FF. Diarmuid O’Flynn has an outside shot perhaps if he gets a lot of transfers but he’s only polling the same as FG’s number 3 Simon Harris. Labour vote negligible here too.
All the usual disclaimers about margin of error. Poll carried out by Millward Brown, the Dublin one is in tomorrow’s Sindo.
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Gilmore’s silly buggers I don’t know why people don’t want meters performance suggests he has a large bet on Labour achieving their worst election performance ever. Can you call him back to the WP soon lads, I think his mission is accomplished.
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There’s also the fact that IMHO the polling results tend to affect the election to a small extent so it will be interesting to see how the next polls are affected by these ones. An independent or left candidate probably needs a good showing to convince the undecided that they have a real shot at the seat, the best place for a party candidate to be is probably slightly down on a rival so voters don’t think they’re safe and pass them by. In that respect the likes of Sean Kelly and Cope Gallagher might not be too displeased by their surprisingly unimpressive showing. I think whoever is showing best out of Childers, Ryan, Murphy and Smith in tomorrow’s poll will receive a bit of a boost. Fingers crossed.
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Haha, that last thought struck me quite a while back!
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I suppose it’s only fair to note that Mullen’s poor showing could be down to a sinister homosexual conspiracy.
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And the 1% achieved by both Ben of the Clan Gilroy and the DDI might have something to do with the number of chemtrails present in the sky when the poll was being taken. Not that you’ll read about that in the MSM.
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So that would be 2-3 GUE-NGL from Ireland. A respectable contribution.
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Come the results of course, the official meeja line will be talk of the worrying rise of the ‘two extremes’. They’re already running this one in Greece to subconsciously associate SYRIZA & KKE with the Greek Nazis.
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Meanwhile, outside Dublin
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Has anyone any insights into how the EU elections are predicted to go for the various Lefts beyond these islands, in Italy, France, Germany, Spain, Portugal etc.?
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European Left has some information here.
I don’t think they’ll mind if I quote the entire thing 🙂
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Thanks G. I’d read that alright.
The assessment of the Italian situation of uniting Left forces overlooks the apparent exclusion of the PdCI from the Tsipras List, while the PRC have joined it. Unfortunately neither my Italian nor the powers of Google Translate are up to figuring up what happened there other than to note that the PdCI seem pissed off.
Hopefully the FdG in France will hold together, after the local election rift between the PCF and the PdG over the issue of co-operation with the PS.
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Give me a link and I’ll work it out.
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Thanks Michael. There are a few statements on the PdCI website, comunisti-italiani.it i think, cant copy and paste on the mobile unfortunately. The PRC seem to be keeping shtum on it. I don’t know if there has been any commentary in the press? The List managed to get their 130k signatures without the PdCI but without knowing the details it reads as silky buggers to be excluding them. You’d never get that carry on here.
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Most recent statement on their site (7 April). Quick translation, errors and exceptions excluded.
C. Procaccini: Tsipras List, our exclusion is serious, we will conduct
our own electoral campaign
The discrimination against and resulting exclusion of PdCI from the
Tsipras List has caused an unjustified split on the left. This has
happen while there is a need to unite communist and left forces for an
alternative politics in the EU, which carries on its anti-people
policies of austerity and is complicit in US imperialism supporting
the right-wing and fascist coup in Ukraine.
The authors of this split have taken on a serious responsibility which
goes beyond the electoral and which already disconcerts left and
communist workers and voters who ask themselves how other parties now
on that list could have made use-without speaking up-of that
discrimination. It is clear that the PdCI (yes a small party but part
of the better history of the PCI), will not let itself be imprisoned
by the electoral turn in the view of those responsible for, and those
who have taken advantage of, our exclusion. We are not the sectarians
here, who instead restate the need for a reamalgamation of communists
and of a real left front with progressive parties, and not for some
small electoral gains but for a political representation of workers,
whose material and democratic rights are attacked by government and
EU.
At the same time it is obvious that the PdCI will not support or ask
for signatures for the Tsipras List. I want to emphasize that in the
face of the extremely serious split carried out by the `holders’ of
the list, the PdCI will not retreat but will continue to intervene
with activists and candidates, some of whome have signed our appeal
against our exclusion. This intervention on our part is sincere, but
it will be confirmed in our independent electoral campaign starting
from our support for the reamalgamation of communists, of the left and
our support for the document of the GUE on Europe and against
imperialist policies.
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Thanks for translating that Michael.
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It should be noted that while the le Pen fille’s re-branded fascism got all the coverage Front de Gauche got 13% in the recent French elections. Similarly Izquierda Unida and May 15 / Indignados got 1.5 Million people on the streets very recently, followed by the usual police repression and riots.
Not that you’d know by reading any of the mainstream press. It’s called a news blackout. See above for comments about SF.
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This could be useful euobserver.com/eu-elections/123586. What “left” is runnig across the water?
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None that I can see (though I haven’t checked on Respect). TUSC are running in the local elections on the same day, but not in the Euros.
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‘No2EU – Yes to Workers Rights’ are running candidates in the Euro elections. Don’t have a full list of candidates but I know Dave Nellist is on the list for the West Midlands.
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Any chance of getting anybody elected?
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Not in the euros anyway.
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Mark is right – 2% would be a good result. There are potential seats for TUSC in the locals. Electoral development on the left in the UK is significantly behind most of Europe (including Ireland) primarily because of the nature of the voting system.
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Gewerk,SF are on course for 4 (Martina Anderson) and if Murphy or Smith make it ,that would be 5 GUE-NGL from Ireland.
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[…] interesting analysis from eamonncork here on the latest Irish Independent poll on Munster/Connacht/Ulster constituencies. I’ve just got the […]
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