2nd preferences at the European Election May 9, 2014Posted by WorldbyStorm in Economy, Irish Politics, The Left.
John Goodwillie points in comments to the data from the latest RedC polls on the European elections in Dublin. Well worth a look for those hoping to parse potential outcomes from the upcoming contest. Check 2nd preferences (with the caveat that this is a small sample). Eamon Ryan has some intriguing 2nd preferences. Though so does Brian Hayes (and who are the 5% voting for him who are transferring to SF?). 19% of Murphy’s vote transfers to SF, 43% to Brid Smith. Whereas only 12% of hers transfers to Murphy.
And a further thought about the latest SBP/RedC tracking poll. Odd that it was released mid-week and not at the weekend. Anyone know why that would be. But… more interestingly, just look at the figures again.
Fine Gael 25 (-1)
Labour 11 (+2)
Fianna Fail 21 (-1)
Sinn Fein 18 (-3)
Independents 25 (+3)
Independents and Fine Gael neck and neck? That’s something else. Perhaps it is true that the local’s and European elections are no cost in the sense that they precipitate no immediate change, but… this poll – and those contests, will solidify some votes in the patterns we are seeing here. Which is good good news for everyone concerned. And just by the by, let’s note that at the last general election Independents/Others were at 15.4%, Fine Gael at 36.1%, FF at 17.4%, LP at 19.4% and SF at 9.9% (one caveat, the GP, now in with Ind/Others, was on 1.8% leading to a comparative figure of 17.2%). That’s some realignment of the vote, is it not?