European Election results – Ireland and Europe – And so we continue, Day 3 of Election results May 25, 2014
Posted by WorldbyStorm in European Politics, Irish Politics.trackback
Just thought it would be handier to pull this side of the elections into a single thread…
Monday morning and in Dublin there’s a recount scheduled for 2pm so that it can be determined which of himself or Childers will take the seat. I’d almost put good money on it being the latter, but we shall see. Just on the thought of that, isn’t it telling that the GP has become once more a repository of votes? The implications of that are worth working through.
Elsewhere the count resumes this morning. Slow isn’t it all?
And let’s take the opportunity to congratulate Brendan Young of Community Solidarity in Celbridge-Leixlip LEA, hard fought hard won.
The Cedar Lounge Revolution 
They’re saying between 3.5% and 4.5% for the Tsipras list in Italy on euronews.
LikeLike
4% threshold I should add.
LikeLike
Looking like 6 seats for La Izquierda in Spain, plus another 5 for the new party Podemos who I think are leftist if I remember correctly.
http://elpais.com/tag/elecciones_europeas/a/
LikeLike
A good advance for IU, Podemos I am sure grew out of the ‘ Indignatos’ protest movement.
LikeLike
A good advance for IU
Mmm. They’re nowhere near PSOE and came fifth in Madrid. I don’t think they’ll be delighted.
LikeLike
Just 30% of Smith’s transfers were going to Murphy, apparently, with another 30% going to Boylan
LikeLike
Heh heh. IT reporting a tweet from Nick Griffin
“If anyone can tell me how to change my twitter title without losing the account I’d be obliged! ; – ) ”
His handle is @nickgriffinmep. Now why would he need to change that 🙂
LikeLike
You know what RTE have just posted up on their Election blog? The front page of the Financial Times with a story saying that the Front National have led a wave of populism across Europe.’ They really are very sore about the Irish results out in Montrose.
LikeLike
Have to say I enjoyed listening to Bryan Dobson’s obvious discomfort as he had to list the seats won by the AAA and PbPA and not have recourse to the old ‘Independents and Others’.
RTE correspondent now hailing ‘new, young, fresh professional’ FG and FF candidates elected in Galway.
We’ve had a big change in party composition but it remains to be seen if we have had such a huge shift in policy.
SF will face a huge test in December when the next round of council budget cuts are up for rubber stamping.
They could always vote against them prior to this weekend, safe I’m the knowledge that FG, FF, Lab and some Independents would approve the budgets.
Where SF are now the decisive factor in a ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ vote for budget cuts they are faced with a reL dilemma. Shades of Militant in Liverpool in the eighties? No. SF will find a cute hoor way to get the cuts through while not voting directly for them.
So, a huge shift to SF but in actual fact no change in local government policy. Good news for SF as a party, same as it was before for the rest of us.
LikeLike
Poor Brian. He can’t call them ‘idiots’ with the same impunity after they’ve been elected. I wonder how that Labour Party guy who used to come on here and sneer at the little far left grouplets with their paltry number of elected representatives feels now. Well done by the way CMK.
LikeLike
Thanks, EC. Nerves not the best. I saw someone earlier saying that Labour are now in the ‘others’ category!
LikeLike
Likewise CMK, well done.
LikeLike
Thanks, WbS. Close, very close.
LikeLike
Heard Pearse Doherty on RTE today saying that he supports the 2 billion euro cut in the deficit planned in the next budget. Very responsible and mature of S.F. But its not obvious that Labour backbenchers will now go for the total 2bn in cuts.
LikeLike
That didn’t take long!
LikeLike
indeed, listening to Pierce Doherty on Radio 1 today , he beat about the bush and wouldn’t answer the question about what SF would do if in government regarding water charges. He said they were against water charges, that’s not an answer, the LP said they were against a lot of things when in opposition but when they got in ’twas a different story.
FF the biggest party in Local Government is bad news. when comrades said in2011 that FF “were finished”, I did’t agree, but I did’n see them making a comebackn so soon.
We still have a big fight ahead-
So Comrades come rally!
But it wont be the “Final Fight”, we have many battles ahead.
LikeLike
‘The grievance vote’
LikeLike
He didn’t!
LikeLike
Yeeehaw. Tom Healy of Sinn Fein elected on the 13th count in Connemara after it looking like a long shot all day. 3 out of 9 for Fianna Fail in an area which used to be among their most rock solid in the country. Tomas O Curraoin remains Republican Sinn Fein’s one councillor in the state. Nothing to do with the left but I’m glad because my mother voted for and thinks highly of him. Result may be mentioned to Eamon O’Cuiv by other Fianna Fail people one suspects.
LikeLike
yes is a positive sign to see FF monopoly broken in Connemara, in the early 70s the Gaeltacht Civil Rights Movement were very militant, in the says of Saor Radio Connemara.
In fairness to Tomas O Curraoin, he supports the Shell To Sea Campaign and is generally anti-imperialist.
LikeLike
roughly
85k votes for SF Dublin, Childers 30, Costello 25, DDI 4, Fitzpatrick 40, Hayes 50, Murphy 29, Ryan 44, Smith 23,
LikeLike
What’s your read on that for seats? Boylan, Hayes, Ryan I suppose.
LikeLike
Hayes should be up around 60 at least. He’ll have problems with transfers.
Boylan then any two from Hayes, Ryan, Fitzpatrick & Childers.
LikeLike
Isn’t it possible that Smith and Costello will put Murphy above Childers? Anyone from the SP got any transfer indications? And if Smith transfers put Boylan well over the qouta, won’t these come back to Murphy?
LikeLike
Smith seems to be splitting between Boylan & Murphy; however its impossible to know with 3rd preferences.
There’s already a gap of 6,000 between him and Childers at the 2nd count. (increased by 1k)
LikeLike
Lynn Boylan SF 83,264
Nessa Childers 35,939
Emer Costello Lab 25,961
Mary Fitzpatrick FF 44,283
Brian Hayes FG 54,676
Paul Murphy SP 29,935
Eamon Ryan G 44078
Brid Smith PBP 23875
Excluded
Jim T ? 2,224
R Whitehead, DDI 3033
D Wise 1147
Day 4022
LikeLike
Quota?
LikeLike
second count
Boylan SF 84,289; Childers Ind 37,706; Costello Lab 26,232; Fitzpatrick FF 44,954; Hayes FG 55,132; Ryan GP 45,173
quota = 88144
Smith out
LikeLike
Murphy, you tease?
LikeLike
sorry
LikeLike
Brid Smith just killed Paul Murphy.
LikeLike
Can I admit to a significant degree of satisfaction that PM came in ahead of BS?
LikeLike
And also ahead of Emer Costello. SWP/SP vote bigger than that for Brian Hayes.
LikeLike
Well if the split in the vote leads to Ryan returning to the national stage and if that makes you happy, go right ahead,
LikeLike
In fairness John I think Wbs would have the same view on this as you and that’s why he’s happy that Paul Murphy came first there.
LikeLike
ach, that’s true it’s just the folly of it all is wearing. I’ll expect we’ll see similar me-feinism at council level.
LikeLike
I understand your weariness John and my feelings would be the same.
LikeLike
Exactly EC, the SWP running a candidate was futile and destructive of PMs chances, and unless things go very well I can’t see him getting elected, my satisfaction comes from the fact he deserved so much better and at least he’s ahead by a good wallop – it’s small vindication but it’s real.
LikeLike
The Irish employers using JobBridge to cut their wage bills could care less who goes out first. Paul was an incredibly effective MEP. If he were in Labour he’d never have been off our screens since 2011. That he is a revolutionary socialist means he’s never going to get the same coverage as the mainstream parties.
LikeLike
Hitting my head against the wall here.
LikeLike
Smith is a fairly repulsive trot zealot who will, along with the inner cabal of the SWP, look upon this result, costing Murphy a seat, as the biggest of the weekend. When the SWP just fuck off.
LikeLike
No she’s not. Brid Smith is a hard-working, dedicated working class activist. Just because this strategy was counter-productive from a class perspective does not make Brid Smith a “repulsive” person. Try trolling somewhere else.
LikeLike
Plus 1. In fairness the PBP’s triumphs have been celebrated here by people of all persuasions over the last couple of days.
LikeLike
I find her politically repulsive
LikeLike
swp defended their own seats and set themselves up for the future, given that the ULA collapsed whats wrong with that. The phoenix this week was saying lynn boylan was a bit of a surprise for the shinners, could have gone a different way. was worth a punt from the swp. Since she is eliminated any votes she took from the SP will go back in second preferences, if its not enough to get murphy elected then some blame needs to be apportioned else where. The electorate decide this stuff not parties.
LikeLike
+1 there, The pity is the faction fighting. I just hope that they co-operate in the councils, bur Ruths public comments re. Brid is ominous I wish Icould b3e more optomistic
LikeLike
BBC analyst says the surprise is that Syriza didn’t do better.
LikeLike
Maybe they lost some votes to Potami? I believe their overall vote was some way down on elections in 2012 (though comparing elections for different legislatures is something one should be careful of).
LikeLike
Left transfers will knock out Hayes I just don’t see where his transfers are coming from.
A bit of humble pie for me. PBP and AAA done better than I expected. Congrats and well done to all. The WUA result in Tipp is very poor in the circumstances. WP Ted Tynan the only bright light really, a real good guy too.
LikeLike
Looks as though Lib Dems are fifth, behind Greens.
LikeLike
UKIP 33.3% in SE England (*my* constituency) – I’m surrounded by them 😦
LikeLike
Or you outnumber them two to one
LikeLike
Only if he’s half Tory G. You may have just libelled him.
LikeLike
Umm, popular frontism!
LikeLike
One in three of everyone you know is a kipper. Sleep tight now.
LikeLike
I still know a lot of people in Ireland and elsewhere, Michael 🙂
LikeLike
Fair point. Just as well Ireland’s turned left.
LikeLike
South West: two UKIP (one of whom I worked with), one Labour, two Tories, Lib Dems lost their seat, Greens taken one.
LikeLike
The perils of coalition.
LikeLike
And LibDems talking openly about sacking Clegg. Spot the difference?
LikeLike
FG managing to sound conciliatory whereas Labour just sound completely disconnected
LikeLike
Very disconcerting.
First Ryanair start being nice, now Fine Gael…
LikeLike
Jesus Christ they’re all at it. Irish Times election blog: ‘There is also an outside chance of a Socialist Party candidate taking the final seat if they transfer to one another. Candidates Paul Murphy and Brid Smith’s tallies taken in tandem put them in contention with Ms. Fitzpatrick and Mr. Ryan.’
The ignorance is astounding.
LikeLike
So, the question as to whether the Soviet Union was state capitalist or a deformed workers’ state scuttles the 2014 european election for leftists in Ireland. Madness? This is Éire.
LikeLike
I think it’s more the question of whether the PBP thought it was more important for the left to win a European seat or Brid Smith to be positioned for a run at the Dail. I think they’re wrong but I don’t think it had much to do with the differences between Ted Grant and Tony Cliff.
And it’s Ireland.
LikeLike
Is about damaging your rival and the Left. There was a time that the SWP’s operation by the CIA was not questioned by knowledgable sections of the Left.
LikeLike
John, your point doesn’t make any sense. If someone on the left was “knowledgeable” about whether someone was working for the CIA or not, it could only be because they were as well – and is that the type of person you listen to?
dear oh dear oh dear. such a naive little man.
LikeLike
John, information has many sources, it’s proven the SWP is the US was in receipt of state funds around the time they were backing CIA support for the Taliban – throughout it’s history the SWP has been used to undermine the left, there cadres I’d imagine unknowingly.
LikeLike
their their.
LikeLike
wow!. such sources. much facts. so knowledge.
LikeLike
🙂 even by the standards of bat-shit crazy conspiracy theorists, this is mental stuff – the SWP in the US (which is now an empty shell) has nothing to do with the SWP in Ireland or Britain; their US affiliate was called the ISO (I say ‘was’, even though it’s still around, because it left the British SWP’s international more than ten years ago).
The US SWP was infiltrated by US government agents, it’s true (although I believe it would have been the FBI rather than the CIA who took charge of domestic surveillance), albeit not to the same extent as the reliably Stalinist CPUSA (one of its most senior leaders was given the Medal of Freedom by Reagan for his services to US capitalism after coming out as an informer). In any case, being infiltrated by government agents is not the same as being ‘in receipt of state funds’. Despite knowing more about far-left trivia than is healthy, I haven’t a clue what the US SWP said about Afghanistan, but seeing as they had gone from Trotskyism to a kind of Castroite-Brezhnevism by the 1980s, I would have expected them to support the PDPA and the Red Army ahead of the Islamist rebels.
(I suppose this is all in vain, by writing this I’m merely revealing myself to be a CIA stooge, but honestly, this is on a par with the 9/11 truther folk …)
LikeLike
As for Éire, assonance 🙂
LikeLike
Any chance at all for PM?
LikeLike
Sum of FF+ FG+ Lab in Dublin Euro Poll is 35%! ! ! Two thirds did not vote for them! Earthquake Confirmed as I predicted http://wp.me/pKzXa-kQ
7.25% for Labour in DUBLIN is disastrous !!!!
LikeLike
Amazing prognosticating psephology! But alas nationally the tremors are not so strong with F.F+F.G+Lab taking over 50% (plus the Greens, plus F.F dna independents, perhaps pushing the % towards 60). It looks as if the Sinn Fein upsurge may have broken the hegemony of this conservative bloc, yet it remains a strong, reactionary force.
LikeLike
paddy- what happened to wua in tipp? Only one council seat out of 40? Did mattie mcgrath, shinners and lowry hoover up the protest vote?
LikeLike
For all the talk of left unity surely the mood between the SP and the SWP will be septic after this. Pretty much looks like Smith has cost Murphy his seat or at least a very good defence of it. Desperate stuff from PBP/SWP.
SP can take a huge amount from AAA candidates results and Coppinger taking the seat.
Feel terrible for Paul Murphy, his performance on the debates was excellent.
LikeLike
But Paul Murphy hasn’t made an impact like Joe Higgins has (admittedly a hard act to follow).
Ruth Coppinger on Sunday night TV panels already looks like a more effective/personable communicator.
LikeLike
I’d agree he is not as popular as Joe but he has a significant profile. Smith split the vote and it is depressingly predictable Trot stuff. Ryan or Childers to profit from it baring some late miracle.
What was a good weekend for PBP and AAA will be sullied by this sectarian shite in my opinion.
LikeLike
RAI giving PD 41.4%; M5S (Grillo) 22.4%; Forza (Berlusconi) 15.7%; Lega Nord 6.1%; Tsipras list 4.1% for Italy.
LikeLike
I’ve seen a lot of stupid sectarian shit over the years, with the SWP responsible for as much of it as all other grouping on the Irish left combined. But the decision to try to cut across Paul Murphy’s defence of the MEP seat may well rank as the nastiest, stupidest and most destructive stunt of all.
And it will have consequences for a long time to come.
LikeLike
+1.
LikeLike
True, unfortunately, although plenty of talk from RBB about closer co-ordination of the left and from R. Coppinger about the need for a new left party. Do you think that last-minute transfer deal had anything to do with the improvement in AAA/PBP numbers?
LikeLike
Costello gone. Boylan elected.
Murphy on 39k votes. Possible but improbable that he might make it.
Childers is looking likely as the third MEP.
LikeLike
Paul has conceded and gone for a pint. I’d have thought Ryan was in the driver’s seat for third position, although where Paul’s vote will transfer with both Smith and Boylan no longer involved is very unpredictable.
LikeLike
I know. I just have a feeling about Childers.
Incidentally, RTE is listing smith as a Green Party member on their election programme. Great stuff.
LikeLike
Likely to be a large non-transferable Mark
LikeLike
Yes, I guess so. Childers is the only one I can see get anything notable.
LikeLike
Eoin O’Broin doing well up against the bluster from Timmy Dooley.
LikeLike
It’s like watching James Joyce play scrabble against Brendan O’Connor.
LikeLike
There can only be one winneq
LikeLike
good performance form o broin and coppinger- dooley is afraid of capital flight- even the imf is rethinking its anti- capital control ideology.Same shite wa sthrown at Lua Lua each time he was going for election- capital will fly, nobody will lend to us- when he did get in Brazil had no problems getting loans.
LikeLike
Are they doing any more counts tonight?
LikeLike
I don’t think so.
LikeLike
They’ll keep going – many counts are already conducted – they couldn’t release the results before 10pm
LikeLike
Hayes was saying they could finish tonight
LikeLike
56% did not vote! Sum of FF +FG + Lab is 35% of VOTERS-people who actually voted! Earthquake: Only 15% of ELECTORATE voted for them http://wp.me/pKzXa-kQ Polls said 30%
LikeLike
The view from France:
Front National on top with 26 % — their highest share in any election ever.
The right-wing UMP on 20% — bad news for them. Looks like major internecine bloodletting is about to commence. Their corrupt leader Copé is surely finished.
The PS on just under 14% — their worst showing in any election to date. No surprise really.
Centrist europhiles on 10% — treading water
Greens on 9% — well down on 2009. They are missing Danny the Red and have been harmed by their participation in government.
Front de Gauche on just over 6% — ever so slightly down on 2009. Big disappointment but expected. Melenchon appeared on television on the verge of tears because of the FN score. He’ll win a seat along with 3 or 4 others.
Various Trotskysists are on 1.5% and will get no seats. They’ve never recovered from Besancenot’s retirement and are invisible in the media.
Disaffected working class voters have flocked to the extreme right and the left isn’t making any impact. Marine Le Pen has cannily infused her traditional anti-immigrant, anti-Muslim line with leftish-sounding rhetoric about neo-liberalism and austerity. She also has a genuine common touch and people think she’s authentic — a bit like Farage.
The upshot is that it now looks nigh on unavoidable that she will make the second round in the 2017 presidential election. The only question is whether the PS or UMP will limp through to join her. One way or another, the existing political system is broken. Hollande may well not even bother seeking re-election because, on this evidence, he is toast and his party won’t let him hang them out to dry without a fight. Expect the ring-wing Prime Minister Manuel Valls to start manoeuvring to become the PS candidate.
LikeLike
Thanks for that Pasionario – this is the worst result in all of Europe.
It means essentially that either Berlin rules Europe unchecked by an even weaker France or that the EPP will seek to co-opt more of the racist right’s programme. Or both.
LikeLike
Front de Gauche on just over 6% — ever so slightly down on 2009. Big disappointment but expected.
Why though? I’d have expected a reasonable number of disaffected PS voters to leak to the left.
LikeLike
They voted FN in large numbers, unfortunately.
LikeLike
Well yes, but I realise that. What I don’t understand is why the phenomenon of leftwing voters abandoning the social democratic party and going further left seems to have been absent in France. People who would never vote for the right, let alone the FN:
LikeLike
Perhaps because the meeja concentrated exclusively on the FN and hardly ever mentioned Front de Gauche?
LikeLike
Maybe, but we’re not talking about the sort of people who’d be swayed by that. (And here, for instance, the media was pretty much all PP and PSOE, and much good did it do them.)
LikeLike
Excellent Pasionario – that sounds convincing.
I’m not sure how many of those points are fixable in the short term.
LikeLike
There are a number of reasons for this failure:
First and foremost is the political effectiveness of the FN under Le Pen. They propose cheap and nasty albeit concrete policies like stripping immigrants of welfare entitlements, exit from the EU, and zero tolerance for Romany encampments.
By contrast, the Front de Gauche say they want to change Europe and no-one is too convinced.
Secondly, the PS is still, unlike other traditional social democratic parties, rhetorically identified with the Left and has a significant left wing within the party which is even represented in cabinet at high levels; Melenchon himself only split from them six or seven years ago. Consequently, the failure of Hollande is perceived as a failure of the Left which makes the FdeG less appealing as a protest vote. I also suspect disaffected PS voters just stayed at home in general.
Thirdly, the FdeG is openly split between Melenchon and the Communists — who provide most of the muscle and are preoccupied about hanging on to their remaining mayoralties and council seats which meant that they allied themselves with the PS for the local elections a few months ago. This makes the FdeG look completely incoherent.
Fourthly, Melenchon is a terrific speaker but his style is a bit dated — grand age of political oratory stuff reminiscent of Blum or Jaures. Le Pen is a more understated and she uses a conversational tone which is more effective these days. She’s also younger and hasn’t been around for so long.
LikeLike
see reply that wandered above 🙂
LikeLike
Thanks for that. Very good.
LikeLike
Actually the more I think about it ejh – that is the key question for the left after this election in many contexts – how do we prevent people betrayed by so-called Social Democrats from going over to right populism. It’s all so late 1920s, early 1930s.
I suspect since it worked so well for Le Pen, other essentially right wing formations will adopt anti-neolib rhetoric.
LikeLike
Quite possibly. Italy next up, perhaps.
LikeLike
31% of Costello’s transfers going to Hayes
LikeLike
Seamie O’Boyle wins seat for PBP in Sligo town. Excellent result, beating Labour (and former Fine Gael) man Jimmy McGarry.
LikeLike
LikeLike
Extremely silly Irish Times article says that the real movers are Fianna Fail who’ve increased their general election vote more than Sinn Fein. And echoed the Sindo’s comment that Sinn Fein didn’t do that well at all.
The reality is that Fianna Fail have had exactly the same result as at the last local elections, in and around 25%, which was then their worst ever local election result. To claim that they’ve had a great result, by focussing entirely on their utterly anomalous showing in the general election is to wilfully misrepresent the facts. The Times are as obsessed with bigging up Fianna Fail as the Sindo are at doing down Sinn Fein.
A more interesting figure is the one of 74% for FF, Labour and Fine Gael at the last local elections and 72% at the general election compared to roughly 50% this time. Only a fool could pretend that the big story is some kind of Fianna Fail revival and that what’s actually happened is business as usual with Fianna Fail merely moving up vis a vis Fine Gael.
But this is the kind of partisan shit you’re up against.
LikeLike
And of course then you have the usual pack of unfortunates commenting underneath along the lines of, “Oh look at the Irish, we’re terrible, voting Fianna Fail back into power,” when the party has got 24% of the vote.
LikeLike
Nessa Childers takes 13k of Paul Murphy’s 42k
Mary Fitz takes just 2225 and will be eliminated
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rfbRatxo2K4C14OyNhuJJw7dfXmOyactJX6Kim6g1TY/htmlview?usp=sharing&sle=true
LikeLike
Spain – 18% of the vote and 11 seats for the two left parties – Izquierda Plural and Podemos.
LikeLike
Just under 50% for the main Troika parties – a bit like Ireland.
LikeLike
Some commentary here
LikeLike
On TVE this morning the leader of Podemos( guy with the ponytail) said the Spain is now a colony of Germany. No beating around the bush there.
LikeLike
Pablo Iglesias. On what I’ve seen so far (and I follow him on Twitter) I think he’s what the doctor ordered.
LikeLike
ejh Political earthquake here in the Canaries, IU which used to come bottom behind the seperatists and had no seats even on councils now on 10% Podemos slightly more, both parties on total of 25% in some municipalities. A low turnout and these percentages will probably fall next year but even on 10% a major breakthrough. My first time voting here for IU. you are right about Iglesias a charismatic orator.
LikeLike
Childers and Hayes elected but Ryan demands recount. Back at 2pm.
LikeLike
Well hopefully that will fail, and at least Ryan was not put in by the SWP.
LikeLike
Excellent. Couldn’t stand looking at Ryan’s smug mug for the next few days. Nessa Childers at least had the gumption to come on here and argue her case.
LikeLike
Right, Smith should not have stood. But we have to get over that. 18 months left to create some kind of Left Pact. Or we we leave it to the SFers because we cannot get our act together.
LikeLike
+10
LikeLike
Jim, the SWP’s pattern of sectarianism relies on others just “getting over” their behaviour. Instead, what’s needed is for the left as a whole to learn some hard lessons from this experience, rather than rush to put it behind us until the next time the SWP pull some malicious stunt.
The wider left should draw some conclusions about what the SWP is and how we should interact with them in campaigns, elections, etc. And members of the SWP should be encouraged to question the behaviour of their own organisations. People do after all join the SWP because they want to bring about a socialist future, not so that they can help damage the socialist left.
LikeLike
“The wider left should draw some conclusions about what the SWP is and how we should interact with them in campaigns, elections, etc.”
You should spell out what you’re calling for here, Mark: my guess is that it cuts directly against the conclusion drawn by most observers here over the course of the past few days.
I think the situation calls for thinking outside familiar habits and routines, and that’s no less true in the SP than anywhere else. You might start with your own.
LikeLike
+1but that’s not going to be easy. The choice for both is between narrow party ambitions and class politics.
LikeLike
My +1 and comment was to Jim’s comment not to that of Mark P, which sounds like more of the same wrangling. Both the SP and SP need to sit down and, “bury the hatchet” and work together, for the Working Class.Recriminations don’t help, party rivalry is doing the damage.
LikeLike
SWP and SP , both of them.
LikeLike
Well, that’s all well and good but the unilateral actions of the SWP have caused a major setback for the Left, and the working class, with the loss of Paul Murphy’s MEP seat, which no-one could argue was used to solely benefit his party.
You can’t argue unity with an organisation that have just stabbed up in the back. It’ll take time and lots of it for many people to work comfortably with the SWP/PbPA. The disgust at their decision to run against Paul may well be repeated when they run against Joan Collins.
Paradoxically, although the SWP will never see it like this, they themselves have been set back by the loss of Paul’s seat. The slave employers of Dublin using JobBridge to reduce their labour costs can thanks the SWP for remove their most formidable foe from the scene.
‘Left Unity’ is a bit hollow after the SWP’s carry on in Dublin.
Childers won’t work nearly as hard as Paul and Boylan will follow what long term strategy that SF have to enter government and bring about simultaneous SF government North and South. While Hayes will row in with whatever viciousness the EPP and their chums in the Commission are hatching. All in a context where austerity is looking like it will be intensified if John Bruton’s comments today in the Indo are to be believed.
THAT’s the legacy of the SWP’s decision to stand Smith.
LikeLike
Neither Lyn Boylan nor Nessa Childers supported the militarisation of the EU and both supported Margaretta D’Arcy release from prison. Her next trial will be in June 24. It’s been a good result for anti war activists when two out of three of its MEP’s take such a position. There is also the possibility that six out of the 14 MEP’s elected to represent Ireland in the EU Parliament will hold such views.
LikeLike
Think I saw the point made here that Smith’s transfers to Murphy (8,000) perhaps indicate that even had she not run, Murphy would not have done much better; ahead of Costello but still behind Ryan and thus eliminated on the third count or so. Although in that case some of Smith’s vote may have gone to Boylan instead and given her a surplus that could have helped Murphy, but again probably not by enough.
If you look at the 2009 counts:
https://electionsireland.org/counts.cfm?election=2009E&cons=524&ref=
Higgins was behind until Mary Lou’s elimination, when her massive transfer to him put him over; this time SF got to keep that vote for themselves, and instead Murphy’s transfers (including the portion coming from Smith) put Childers out in front – assuming a recount doesn’t change that. Unlike in 2009, there would be nowhere for the SP to get a transfer vote from, because SF has risen to a quota.
It seems like Dublin has the vote for one FG seat, one centre-left seat and one further left (or whatever category you want to put SF into). In this case the non-SF left were the deciders for the centre seat, and in a way I’m surprised so many of Murphy’s votes were transferable; I’m always urging people to continue preferences for as long as you can make a distinction, and that’s clearly what they did between FG/FF/GP on the one hand and ex-LP/ex-GP/FF family on the other.
LikeLike
Is it possible though that Murphy could have got ahead of Childers and benefitted from her transfers? When he went out, he wasn’t that far behind her and his transfer to her might have been reciprocated the other way.
LikeLike
I think that is a possibility. The argument put forward by Smith was that even adding her votes to his, it would still only add up to about 50k votes. But 50k votes in the early stages can help a candidate along and such a vote would have put Murphy just behind Brian Hayes.
You also cannot discount the effect a stronger pre-election polling figure has on the electorate. A higher number may have made Murphy seem like more of a contender and he may have attracted more votes/first preferences as a result.
LikeLike
Agree strongly with the second par and with the self fulfilling nature, to a certain extent, of polls.
LikeLike
Yes, I’d agree with the polling element. I’m only working the figures as they are.
I still think the lack of a SF transfer is a big problem, though; and PR-STV does otherwise go some way towards mitigating the effects of a split vote.
LikeLike
RiD, that 50k is taking *all* of Smith’s votes, while only about a third of them transferred to Murphy; even allowing for plumpers that could have been swayed to one or the other, that’s an optimistic figure given that Higgins’ vote was 50k on a higher turnout (400k rather than 350k) and SF must be considered to have leached some (more) of the left vote to reach their current figure, which is equal in % share to Higgins and Mary Lou combined – just about 1 quota.
My contention is there’s really only one seat to be filled in the current circumstances by SF and the SP. Combining Murphy, Smith and Boylan’s vote is about 1.6 quotas, doable for two but only if they transferred strongly internally and attracted transfers from outside. On the first part there are doubts about Smith’s vote, whether she stood or not, but the second is the real issue. If Murphy had got up behind Hayes with 50k votes, how would he stay there?
I think transfers to the left and/or to SF are an interesting thing to look at in the locals. Certainly in DLR, while SF did well and won three seats, it was virtually all on the strength of first preferences and they slipped down the running order before getting elected.
LikeLike
I agree about the 50k, but I am taking that figure directly from Brid Smith, who was claiming that even if she had transferred all her votes Murphy it would not have helped him. I am of the belief that she is wrong to say that.
We can argue the toss about whether she was obliged to stand aside for Murphy while he defended his seat (although, doing this and calling for Left unity is inherently contradictory/dialectical), but I think it is incorrect to say that it did not have an impact.
LikeLike
Scope though, surely, for SF to become a more acceptable mainstream soft-left option over the next five years and leave room for the radical left with only a small drift in that direction (ie, FG/SF/SP)?
LikeLike
RiD – I’d say it didn’t help Murphy’s chances, but they weren’t that great to begin with. I don’t see how his position without Brid Smith on the ballot paper would be overall much better than his position after the elimination of Smith – unless as you say, a unified left candidate featured strongly in the campaign and opinion polls and, crucially, took votes away from SF.
Rockroots – interesting idea, but SF would have to become a lot more acceptable to take the likes of Childers and Ryan’s votes I think. And the SP would need to be more transfer-friendly on their own. Could happen!
LikeLike
Possibly, and Smith’s transfers did put them within a couple of thousand votes – but then Costello’s transfer restored the gap of about 5,000 which was there from the beginning. But then there’d still be Ryan some way ahead and I’d say he’d attract more of Childers transfers than Murphy – or even Fitzpatrick, on a gender basis. On the other hand, at the 2009 count McKenna and De Burca’s transfers went respectably to Higgns – but it’s hard to read because De Rossa took a lot at that time too. My point is that there’d have to be a solid source of further left transfers for Murphy to climb over the more centrist candidates.
It’s rather like chess really in that you need to see several moves ahead. Noel Whelan was making noises on RTE about Childers early on in the count, but he misread Costello’s transfers. Murphy’s really were the surprise.
LikeLike
It’s rather like chess really in that you need to see several moves ahead
This isn’t as true as people think.
LikeLike
Anyone using a chess analogy on this site is courting danger.
LikeLike
In chess or PR-STV?
LikeLike
It might be true in PR-STV, but I know next to nothing about it. In chess – even top players don’t operate by calculating a few moves ahead nearly as much as people think.
LikeLike
Still none the wiser as to what grouping Childers will join. I Googled a few key words and saw someone tweeted her something along the lines of ‘I’d vote for you as long as you don’t join a far-left grouping’, to which she replied, ‘I won’t.’ On Prime Time she said she’d join a centre-left group, but there’s really only one, and they mightn’t let her back in. Will she join the Greens/EFA group then? Could they be considered centre-left? Still think there’s a possibility she might (have to) join GUE/NGL, despite her indication to the contrary. She was pretty adamant she wouldn’t stay in the non-inscrits either.
Seems she’s pretty much ruled out everything?
LikeLike
Will the S&D not let her back in though? The Labour Party were stopping that… and they’re no longer represented in the EP. If they admit her again they’ll have salvaged one vote from Ireland.
LikeLike
I can’t see salvaging a vote as being sufficient of an incentive.
LikeLike
Sinn Fein has broken the duopoly of the two conservative parties, and put their facilitator, the Labour party in intensive care. We now have a lame duck government.
Enda Kenny has indicated F.G could coalesce with S.F; Gerry Adams has laughed at the idea.
As we approach 2016 Sinn Fein is stressing the all-Ireland nature of their party and project. Will this have resonance?
The success made by PBP, WP, SP, AAA, and left-inclined independents is a base for further advancement.
Adams in this clip criticizes the government for the proposed 2bn euro cut in the deficit in the next budget. But S.F. also favours the cut; it differs from the govt. in how the burden of the cut should be distributed. S.F. is committed to the conservative economics of the Fiscal Treaty.
http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/elections/election-results-a-sea-change-for-irish-politics-gerry-adams-30305132.html
LikeLike
Any chance for anyone but FG for fourth seat in South.
1st count (quota 131,500).
Crowley 180,329.
O’Riada125,309.
Kelly 83,520.
Harris 51,483.
Clune 47,453.
O’Flynn 30,323.
Prendergast 30,317.
Hartley 29,987.
O’Sullivan 27,860.
Heaney (Catholic Democrats) 13,569.
Cahill (Independent) 10,719.
Inspector Van Der Valk of DDI 9,255.
Jillian Mansion Mortgage 9,179.
O’Loughlin Independent 6,561.
Fis Nua 1,634
LikeLike
“Inspector Van Der Valk of DDI”
…or as our esteemed leader would say, ‘sure you’re not from round here at all’
LikeLike
I am a martyr for name resemblances. I’ve spent the last couple of days wondering if Thomas Welby topped the poll in Connemara because he sounded like an under-rated eighties synthpop star. And if this means there might be a case next time out for running Midge Furey and Phil Coakley.
LikeLike
Not forgetting Hugh Lewis.
LikeLike
He believes in socialism, he believes it’s true, he believes in socialism and he’s making you believe it too.
LikeLike
+1
Every time I saw his poster.
LikeLike
Jan Van Der Ven certainly matched Ming Flanagan in the impressive beard department (although he did remind me of Robert de Niro in ‘Angel Heart’ for some reason). If only they had been in the same electoral area: http://directdemocracyireland.ie/candidates/jan-van-de-ven/img/janvandeven.jpg
LikeLike
Ming has been looking very Game of Thrones the last few days. I hope he keeps an eye out for the palace guard at the count. Though I suppose Fine Gael’s equivalent to Prince Joffrey has just been elected in Dublin so his lust for power may have been slaked.
LikeLike
On the South fourth seat. Newstalk’s talking heads’ initial view as that its FG for the fourth seat – only question was which FGer?
However, Joe speculates… is there a possibility that O’Sullivan of the Greens will become the transfer magnet as counts continue? Or maybe O’Flynn? A bit like Childers in Dublin?
There’s a trick there isn’t there for such candidates? Become the transfer magnet – the one people will transfer too because you’re a sort of nice enough type who doesn’t get up anyone’s nose.
Actually as I read your candidate list, EC, and the subsequent posts – would Jillian Mansion be anything to Marilyn?
LikeLike
Looks like the Workers’ Party of Belgium have missed out on a seat in Brussels(ba-dum-tish!). Otherwise they’ve won 2 in the 150 seat Belgian chamber of representatives, 2 in the 75 seat Walloon Parliament and 4 in the Brussels regional Parliament; nothing in affluenza ridden Flanders though.
http://elections2014.lesoir.be/result/europe
LikeLike
First Count MNW (Quota 129,290).
Ming 124,063.
Carthy 114,727.
McGuinness 92,080.
Harkin 68,986.
Cope 59,562.
Byrne 55,383.
Jim Higgins 39,908
The Hammer of the Gays 36,326.
Lorraine Higgins 31,951.
Lad from Greens who runs pub in Dundalk 9,520.
Ben of the Clan Gilroy 7,683.
Sundries 6,200 between 3 of them.
LikeLike
You’d imagine it would take a monumental vote management cock-up for Fianna Fail not to get the last seat here. Byrne might edge out the Cope though.
LikeLike
Again, though… Harkin will be a lot more transfer-friendly to the likes of Higgins and even Hammer of the Gays when they are eliminated. It ain’t over.
LikeLike
Bit more of a chance than Munster but at the end either Byrne or Gallagher will have a huge load to transfer to their colleague. Fianna Fail will want Byrne out first because Gallagher will have more personal votes.
They’d have taken two in Munster no sweat with some effort at vote management, even allowing for Crowley’s personal appeal.
LikeLike
Fianna Fáil 369,544 22.31%
Fine Gael 369,120 22.28%
Independent 328,766 19.85%
Sinn Féin 323,300 19.52%
Labour Party 88,229 5.33%
Green Party 81,458 4.92%
Socialist Party 29,953 1.81%
Direct Democracy 24,093 1.45%
People Before Profit 23,875 1.44%
Catholic Democrats 13,569 0.82%
Fís Nua 4,610 0.28%
Total 1656517 100.00%
,
Totals nationally for the Euros, sorted from largest to smallest.
LikeLike
FF/FG/LAb 49.92%
Everyone else 50.08%
Nice symmetry to it.
LikeLike
Sinn Fein “in the Republic it won 25% of the vote and its highest number of councillors.”
And “As well as Sinn Féin, leftwing independent candidates did well in the elections on both sides of the border with smaller parties gaining 20% of the vote.”.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/25/sinn-fein-gains-elections-gerry-adams
LikeLike
Confirmation of Dublin result. Boylan, Childers, Hayes
LikeLike
Sorry for the long post
In answer to shea and others above – With all due respect – the SWP have the attitude that the PBPA is the only game in town and they are willing to walk over any other left organisation to push the PBPA to the fore.
The antics of the SWP in running Brid Smith in the Euros had nothing with defending ” their own seats and set themselves up for the future,” It had everything to do with
1. Raising the profile of Brid Smith for the general elections
2. A bonus of shafting Paul Murphy and the SP
3. Getting ready to shaft Joan Collins in the next election
Those who claim that even if Murphy had got all of Smith’s transfers it wouldn’t have got him elected – or – that because he only got 8,000 votes from Smith that if she hadn’t stood he would only have got an extra 8,000 – demonstrate that they completely misunderstand the nature of elections and the process of voting. Elections are about momentum – that task of Paul Murphy retaining the MEP seat was always going to be a big ask – the Socialist Party and anyone who considered it knew this. In 2009 it suited the SWP to stick a big photo of Joe Higgins on the local leaflets of the PBPA candidates – they never expected him to win and hoped to piggyback on his profile – absolutely not problem with any left candidate doing that. This year the SWP didn’t see any strategic interest in putting Paul Murphy’s name on the PBPA leaflet but saw the opportunity to deprive the SP of the platform afforded by the EU Parliament. It took a lot of effort to get the SWP to agree a trnsfer pact and even then they were half-hearted in their efforts.
However, the biggest problem with Smith standing was that it undermined the potential for Paul Murphy to build a momentum behind his campaign that was needed to hold the seat. This allowed SF and Boylan to attract many potential votes that Murphy could have garnered. As a result Boylan got probably 4% or 5% more first preferences than SF were polling. On top of this Smith split the vote and splitting the vote results in leakage of anything up to 50% of the vote – in other words if Smith hadn’t stood then it is likely that Murphy’s first preferences would have been up by about 17,000 (rather than the 8,000 transferred). The potential FPV for Paul Murphy if Smith didn’t would have been in the region of 15%. Now other factors could have come into play to impact on the vote for Paul Murphy that could have pushed it up or down.
Now – I am outlining the impact of the SWP’s decision to stand Smith here – the political implications of this sectarianism for the wider left have been debated before. But there is a further issue that should be considered after the locals. The WUAG claim that that the PBPA cost them a council seat in Tipperary. I would have to look at the count details by from what I can see from an initial glance at the numbers I think the PBPA could have cost the AAA two or three council seats by dropping candidates into areas targeted by the AAA and pulling the votes from AAA candidates. This once again demonstrates the continuing attitude of the SWP – they have been brazen in ignoring the criticism they received from the wider left over the decision to stand in the Euros and clearly are continuing the strategy of all for the PBPA and bugger the rest of the left. This is likely to continue in the next general election – the SWP have already signalled that Smith will run against Collins in a new four seat constituency and will have no option but to take out Collins to get Smith in. They are also likely to run Martin in Dublin North – previously I advocated the running of an AAA candidate in Dublin North because I felt there were a potential two left seats including Clare Daly – now with SF doing damage and Clare Daly supported candidates performing very poorly I think that Clare Daly should be given a clear run – splitting the vote could, potentially cost her seat. Bayliss will be stood in Dublin West (again the potential for a second left seat is gone because of the massive jump in SF support) – the PBPA will run against a much stronger AAA campaign in DSW and could cost the left a seat. The PBPA will probably run against Healy in South Tipp and will definitely run against Bree in Sligo and against Ciaran Perry in DC. There could be other examples. Now if the AAA ran a candidate in Dun Laoghaire given that RBB is in a major dog-fight to win a seat with the LP and FF or the AAA ran a candidate in DMW where Gino Kenny has a good chance of winning a left seat you can be sure the SWP would be screaming ‘sectarian’ from the roof-tops.
There is a wide a disparate left in Ireland and it is in the interests of the working class that the left co-operate when possible. The are indications (from the growth of the AAA anyway) that new layers of activists are moving into political activity and that bodes well for building a broader left alliance / party. That work will be undermined by the attitude of the SWP. In my opinion if the SWP doesn’t change it’s attitude then the wider left from the AAA to the WP to the CPI to the UL to the ISN to the independent lefts and their supporters will have to act to protect the potential that the left has in its grasp. This is even more important given the surge for SF and the negative impact this could have on the growth of the left in the short to medium term.
LikeLike
Murphy gave it a decent shot under the circumstances and I was surprised he got as many FPVs as he did.
On that basis, and given the gains in the locals, he’s probably got a good chance of winning a Dail seat somewhere next time out. But which constituency would he run in?
LikeLike
Brid Smith’s!
LikeLike
🙂
LikeLike
Judging by your post you think the AAA are the only gamein town- how arrogant can you get- the PBPA cost AAA seats where they had targetted seats. So even in places where you didn’t have sitting councillors the AAA- they had first call on the anointed candidate. Give it over. Who was it again who walked away from the ULA?
LikeLike
In fairness, everyone in the ULA knows that for all intents and purposes, the SWP left the ULA before the Socialist Party.
LikeLike
And here is the nonsense – The Socialist Party will work with anyone who is opposing austerity. The Socialist Party has in the past and will continue in the future, to promote left co-operation. The SWP appear at this time not to be interested in left co-operation and have acted in a sectarian manner in these elections (and I agree with Jim that the Euros is water under the bridge) – but it also happened in the locals.
The Socialist Party had a sitting councillor in Castleknock. The AAA ran two candidates to win two seats. The AAA won one seat but PBPA ran a candidate who had no base in the area but took enough votes to deprive the AAA of the second seat. A similar thing happened in Balbriggan. The PBPA won a seat on the back of the work of the AAA in the area but in the process probably cost the AAA two seats in the ward. This may have happened in other areas too – I haven’t looked at all the counts yet – the WUAG blame the PBPA for costing them a seat in South Tipp.
There is no area where the PBPA lost a seat because of the AAA standing. For example the AAA could with some validity have run a candidate in Lucan and likely would have cost the PBPA a seat there – but it didn’t. The AAA took the approach of what maximised the success of the left – the PBPA took the approach of what maximised the success of the PBPA and said f*ck the rest of the left (and who cares if out antics cost the rest of the left council positions).
LikeLike
Your really are having a laugh-
“The Socialist Party will work with anyone who is opposing austerity. The Socialist Party has in the past and will continue in the future, to promote left co-operation.”
Not always the case. When people stray from the ‘one true path to socialism’ of the sp- they are shunned by sp.
“The PBPA won a seat on the back of the work of the AAA in the area but in the process probably cost the AAA two seats in the ward.”
If the AAA has done work in the area how come the AA candidate got less than 2% of the vote? In Ballbriggan a sitting SP councillor only managed 3.5% of the vote. That PBPA fault?? One AAA candidate got 1.8% and a 2nd SP candidate got less than 1%. The PBPA candidate got over 5% of the vote and went on to win a seat. I would say the decision to run 2 SP candidates and 1 AAA candidates had more to do with no building on the sitting councillors work or the work of AAA in the area.
“This MAY have happened in other areas too – I haven’t looked at all the counts yet – the WUAG blame the PBPA for costing them a seat in South Tipp.”
“May have”- speculation on your part- stirring the pot.
there is no evidence on the figures that the single PBPA candidate in Tipperary cost WUAG a seat.
LikeLike
“Sinn Féin’s approach is about making the necessary deficit adjustment without harming families or frontline services, by asking the wealthiest to pay more and by cutting waste from public spending…..
One-party rule in the North has gone and two- and-a-half party rule in this State is going also. Sinn Féin is now a major player in both states on this island with policies, objectives, and an expanding organisation which transcends partition.” -Gerry Adams.
http://www.irishexaminer.com/analysis/time-right-for-a-fundamental-realignment-of-irish-politics-269942.html
LikeLike
Worked well for Hollande in France that approach…
LikeLike
“the necessary deficit adjustment”-This means that S.F accepts the conservative economics of the Fiscal Treaty. At this point that probably puts S.F to the right of what’s left of the Labour party.
LikeLike
Not sure about that now, on the CAHWT website their slogan is make the rich pay for their crisis. Taking the cutting waste stuff with a pinch of salt how different is that slogan from what SF is saying?
LikeLike
I thought that the left, generally speaking, is opposed to the conservative economics embedded in the Fiscal Treaty; Sinn Fein is not.
LikeLike
Yes that’s true re the left or much of it but that doesn’t mean that there is no deficit at all or that everyone will have the same view as to how to deal with it. And I do think there’s a significant difference between accepting tax increases on the wealthy to deal with it and the LP or FF and FG approach.
LikeLike
Sinn Fein is on record as supporting the coalition’s proposed reduction in the deficit by 2bn euro in the next budget. This is required by the Fiscal Treaty. The Fiscal Treaty has been widely criticized as embodying anti-Keynesianism in European law.
Certainly making the rich pay is important. But accepting the Fiscal Treaty and the conservative economics underlying it is contrary to even the mildest versions of social democracy.
Don’t be surprised if Joan Burton attacks the necessity of a further 2bn euro reduction in the deficit at this point.
LikeLike
Incidentally, cutting a budget deficit in a time of economic recession, is a usual definition of austerity. Being in favour of cutting the deficit and at the same time being anti-austerity is Sinn Fein’s oxymoronic position.
LikeLike
I’d like their line on it parsed out a bit more than Adams comment, but it’s worth considering that this is easy for SF in that the likelihood of the government falling before next December and the Budget is probably not very high – even taking into account the weekend – and therefore they’ll not actually be asked to do anything one way or another. Cynical – surely, but another means of putting the govt and FF under pressure. I do take your point re the budget deficit and I’d certainly call SF on that aspect of it, but while having no illusions as to how far left SF is it’s worth keeping in mind it is the only formation of any great size that is willing to implement even mildly progressive policies (at least as its stated aim – if it ever makes it into power we can therefore hold it to its own standard).
LikeLike
Wbs,
Pearse Doherty made the same point re the deficit yesterday morning on RTE. Cathal McCoille programme?
“SF .. is the only formation of any great size that is willing to implement even mildly progressive policies” That’s true, all the more reason to criticize their policies when needed.
LikeLike
Surely. No argument from me there. But I don’t expect that SF is going to operate too far to the left. At this stage it’s mild dissent is near enough radical in itself given the FF/FG/LP approach. Near enough. But not exactly.
LikeLike
Good Lord, cutting waste from public spending. Why did nobody think of that before?
LikeLike
It’s so crazy it just might work
LikeLike
And why not support apple pie as well.
LikeLike
SF lining up a coalition – and spouting the nonsense we all know from the LP.
LikeLike
I take it the Socialist Party won’t ever enter government unless it has a majority then.
LikeLike
Socialist Party has zero intent on entering any capitalist government.
LikeLike
The Socialist Party will never enter government as part of a coalition involving capitalist parties. Not that we are expecting any of them to offer us the opportunity any time soon.
LikeLike
So how does the Socialist Party intend to change the system and policies (including fighting austerity) which we are saddled with this side of the turn of the century?
LikeLike
Through non-parliamentary campaigning, using the platform provided by elected positions to help raise issues and organise people.
We are not opposed to going Into coalition government with non-capitalist parties, but rather obviously we don’t expect the issue to arise in the near future.
LikeLike
Interesting watching the mainstream media cry “populist” when the people fail to vote the way they’re supposed to. Entirely unsurprising that they keep stressing right-wing parties by way of tarring any hostility to austerity politics with the same brush.
Guardian has a quick run-down (http://www.theguardian.com/politics/shortcuts/2014/may/26/european-elections-six-countries-went-left) of countries which have seen decent results for the left including, em, minor cases like Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal (surely Ireland should be in there somewhere too?)
This site (http://www.results-elections2014.eu/en/election-results-2014.html) has a breakdown of first prefs across Europe: big story on these terms is actually EPP from 36% to 28.4%. S&D no change (25% – 25.3%); ALDE down (11.4% – 8.5%); Greens little change (7.5% – 7.1%); EUL-NGL up (4.8% – 5.6%); ECR down (7.3% – 6.1%). EFD, notoriously, up (4.3% – 5.1%) but hardly such a dramatic swing. (Figures all rounded to one decimal point.)
A fairer description of the elections across Europe than “swing to the right” or “populist surge” would be to say “some fall off in mainstream conservatism (EPP, ALDE, ECR go from 54.7% to 43%) and some rise in the non-party-group-aligned (from 27 to 64 seats; can’t see what percentage they got in 2009 but the general picture is clear from the stats above).
Obviously things haven’t stayed static at national levels – far from it – but the point is that the story of “Europe swinging to the populist right” is a self-serving media myth rather than any representation of reality. “Christian Democrats, conservatives and liberals lose some voters” would be a more accurate account of what has actually happened at European level.
LikeLike
Should have put that last point more clearly: the swing to the populist right (to the extent that non-party-group-aligned MEPs represent that; it isn’t always the case) is at the expense of the mainstream right, not any kind of left-to-right shift.
LikeLike
You’re dead right about the strategy of tarring those on the left who oppose TINA as the same as the racist, xenophobic right. Expect much more of it, including from lazy liberal organs like the Guardian.
And the growth of such parties was something assiduously promoted by a large majority of the meeja, by means of their structuring the reportage around them, while giving hardly any space to critique from the left.
That said, your statistics are out, in that many of the racist and Nazi right have yet to find a Fraction in the EU parliament. And most worryingly, the NF in France have found the kind of formula that was so succesfull in the 1920s and 1930s, namely a combination of:
a) A faux-critique of globalised capitalism
b) An (undeliverable) promise of re-nationalising the French economy
c) A scapegoating of Muslims, Roma & Sinti, foreigners in general and an underlying anti-semitism
With that they captured a significant portion of the disenchanted working class and under/unemployed white vote.
See Pasionario’s analysis elsewhere for more detail.
LikeLike
Yes, the final far right groupings will be larger. But it still won’t amount to a shift rightwards overall, rather a realignment within the right.
I agree too about the NF but it’s important to remember that they are not exactly new, nor is electoral success. They are perhaps unusual on the European far right in being able to hold themselves together as an electoral force over this length of time: more commonly such parties decline as electoral forces fairly quickly.
+1 on the faux-critique of capitalism – as anti-semitism used to be, the far right is often socialism for fools. In this case exacerbated by the decline or destruction of many of the working-class institutions which used to make actual socialist ideas available – and of course by a “mainstream” centre-left which has identified itself thoroughly with Europe and neo-liberalism.
One of the most hypocritical aspects of the establishment horror of populism of course is the ways in which it has been bang alongside racist policies of many kinds as well as the flexing of military muscles and a gung-ho approach to policing – and cries foul when it is outflanked on this particular terrain.
LikeLike
And that’s a key question. Much of the old Social Democratic tradition (I’m going back to it’s origins in Germany here) was essentially educative and allied with the provision of new opportunities for sociability and solidarity for the poor.
What, I’ve been increasingly wondering, could a ‘left populism’, one that didn’t compromise fundamental tenets and practices, look like? How do you motivate at the emotional level and simultaneously guide people towards analysis and action?
LikeLike
Why should I be elected:
“Like so many others, I voted Fine Gael in the last elections, hoping for a change….Unfortunately these promises were broken, but this is our chance to pay them back”
Above are the words of one of the new AAA Councillors for Limerick. He was asking for support in local paper before election. Not an admission that many on the ‘left’ can make, I suppose.
LikeLike
Paul Keller is a genuine bloke who admits he was taken in by the hype of the current government parties – his eyes were opened and he began asking questions and realised that he needed to fightback. He stepped up and stood for the AAA in the election. Paul Keller is a fighter and will be a major asset to the AAA as a councillor and will be a key player in building opposition to water charges and the wider austerity agenda. He is smart and level-headed and will be a thorn in the side of the establishment on the council.
LikeLike
No problem with any of that JRG. I look forward to seeing him do just that and to him working with other left wing councillors both inside and outside AAA in the new Limerick Council. I think his comment is worth highlighting in reflecting on the building of broad fronts but also in the maybe broader definition of ‘left’ post election. Wish him well and congratulations on a well worked strategy.
LikeLike
[…] mixed results from across Europe it’s interesting to see the importance of progressive nationalist parties amongst those historic […]
LikeLike
Arghhh! Make it stop!
OK – I’ve had enough now. For a moment I saw a Green success in Ireland and thought that banksters moll Ryan had been elected.
When’s the count going to finish, people? Any idea?
LikeLike
You’ve been in Germany too long Gewerker. This is the Irish way. String it out for as long as we can – adds to the drama and to the paycheck of the counters.
Should be done by teatime tonight.
LikeLike
Ah well – if it’s an earner for someone … I’m happy.
LikeLike
Last count in West. FF’s Byrne eliminated on c60000 votes. FF’s Gallagher about 30000 behind Harkin. Can he make up the gap? Unlikely I’d say.
LikeLike
I think he will, 60% or so shouldn’t be beyond Fianna Fail. However, the surplus might put Carthy over the quota so there’s votes to be distributed there then.
Meanwhile in the South the thrilling battle between Simon Harris and Deirdre Clune continues.
LikeLike
Sean O’Rourke ‘Will you go into the next election promising to repeal the legislation that had brought in the water charges?’
Pearse Doherty ‘well, well first of all the bills haven’t been rolled out and in the North we were at the exact same stage and
Sean O’Rourke ‘you’re dodging the question and waffling on about stopping it now. You know full well the government have no intention of stopping it. What I am asking you is will you repeal the legislation?’
Pearse Doherty ‘well we want to, we’re opposed to water charges, ah, we want water charges, we want water charges scrapped, its a very simple thing, you know’
Sean O’Rourke ‘so will you promise in the next election to repeal the water charges legislation, it’s a really simple question’
Pearse Doherty ‘Our first and foremost is to stop the water charges being introduced’
Sean O’Rourke ‘but that’s not going to happen, you know that’
Pearse Doherty ‘well, um, you may think it’s not going to happen, what we, what we want to do is to build a consensus to stop water charges being introduced’
Sean O’Rourke ‘but if it doesn’t’
Pearse Doherty ‘we will… but … but… our platform at this point in time is that we can provide an alternative that doesn’t include water charges and if we are in government at that time then that will be a priority for us to not have water charges implemented on people who are, ahm, the working poor’
Sean O’Rourke ‘Aahh’
Pearse Doherty ‘afford to pay these new charges’
Sean O’Rourke ‘so there will be water charges but you have to be the working poor to not pay them’
Pearse Doherty ‘ no, no’
Sean O’Rourke ‘ that’s clearly what you are saying’
Pearse Doherty ‘no, that’s what you are reading into it. What I am saying very clearly is that Sinn Fein’s position is that of opposition to water charges, we want to stop water charges from being introduced, just what I was saying, in the North, we were in the exact same position in North where legislation was introduced, metering was rolled out, and when Sinn Fein got into government we stopped charges being introduced and we want to do the same thing here.
LikeLike
Probably better to have posted this in the ‘Meet the new (prospective) boss,… Same as the old boss’.
LikeLike
Sinn Fein will not abandon their principles when they enter government. They are staunchly anti-austerity. They are also in favour of the proposed 2bn euro reduction in the deficit in the next budget. Reducing the deficit during a severe recession and mass unemployment is the usual definition of austerity. On this Sinn Fein is probably to the right of what’s left of the Labour party.
LikeLike
Maybe I’m reading it incorrectly but with respect lads that interview segment doesn’t seem to quite be the smoking gun you think it is.
LikeLike
The contradictions in it seem to have more to do with incoherence under pressure than outright treachery.
LikeLike
Fair point, but hundreds of thousands voted for SF in the belief that by so doing they were voting against water charges. Pearse could have been unequivocal and stated that, yes, they would scrap water taxes. An avowed ‘anti austerity’ party’s spokesperson engaging in seeming evasiveness on the core austerity measure of this year, just three days after winning a huge ‘anti austerity’ vote, is not a great harbinger for the future, I would argue.
LikeLike
Perhaps not CMK. But I suppose my point is that right now we just don’t know. How Sinn Fein utilises its position of power on Dublin City Council will give us a much better clue as to its long term behaviour than jumping all over an interview where Doherty does in fairness say that he’s against the introduction of water charges at the start and for their abolition at the end. Though I confess to being a sucker for the odd bit of interview exegesis myself.
What I’m saying is that we’ll know soon enough. No great need to go kicking them for their rhetoric just yet. As we know, declarations of intent in Irish politics aren’t always the best indicator of what will actually happen.
But you’re right to say that if Sinn Fein row back on water charges they’ll be behaving no better than Labour before them. And the danger for them is that their vote down here is entirely different to that in the North. It’s based on the specific anti-austerity policies they advocated. Whereas in the North they’ve been round long enough to build up the kind of voter loyalty which Fianna Fail and Fine Gael commanded whereby a person votes Fianna Fail because they’re a Fianna Fail voter and gives the party wiggle room on issues of principle. Sinn Fein don’t have that kind of loyalty as a sizable proportion of voters never voted for them before. Sinn Fein is the shape anti-austerity is taking at the moment. But they’d be making a mistake if they think the only way is up from now on, if they break their promises they’ll go the way of Labour after 1992 and 2011.
If I was Labour, I’d disband the party altogether and create from the ashes this new mass social democratic centrist party I’m still convinced is the missing element in the political picture at the moment.
LikeLike
Sinn Fein distributed hundreds of thousands of leaflets during the election that state ‘Sinn Fein when in government will abolish water charges’ . Doherty had several opportunities during the interview to state ‘yes Sinn Fein will abolish water charges if in government after the next election’ – he avoided making this commitment like the plague.
The content of this interview has to be seen in the context of Adams committing to the €2billion deficit reduction the same day – it was the well worn ‘we accept that cuts are necessary, the only question is what do you cut?’
LikeLike
Doherty also committed to the 2bn Euro reduction in an RTE interview with Cathal McCoille (I think) on Sunday morning. To claim to be anti-austerity and to be in favour of this core austerity measure is nonsensical.
LikeLike
I’m with you on this EC, let’s see how SF operate on councils, in the Dáil, etc, before rushing to argue that they’re somehow selling out. Again, it comes down to holding them to the standard they’ve set themselves.
Again, CL, I take your point, but given that SF is never going to be the party you want them to be, isn’t it a bit redundant to be complaining that they’re not that party?
When they are faced with a clear decision, and in a position to implement it let’s see what they do. Until then I’ll reserve judgement on them.
LikeLike
I fundamentally disagree that we should be holding people to the standard they set themselves. That’s a way of judging hypocrisy not of judging the merits of what they are doing.
We have every reason to believe, given their record in government in the North, that SF will prove to be hypocrites. But whether they are hypocrites are not isn’t really any more important than whether FF meet the standards they set themselves or FG or Lab. What matters is whether what they do matches up to what the left should be doing. And on that we can say with certainty that it won’t.
The answer to “they’re not that kind of party and don’t pretend to be” isn’t to shrug and say well, fair enough then let’s not criticise them. It’s to say what kind of party we need and why SF aren’t it, whether they live up to their own standards or not.
LikeLike
The specific problem with that line – which I don’t disagree more broadly with in relation to political formations in general – though with some caveats, is that in relation to SF in the North not all of us agree that they’re hypocritical, given the specific set of circumstances in that particular polity.
Nor do all of us agree that your definition of what the ‘left’ should is the correct one, or even what the left actually is.
That’s latter is surely so obvious that I don’t have to mention it, no?
LikeLike
Of course not all of us agree, that’s why we argue it about here and elsewhere. But if we are so far in disagreement that you actually do think that SF are the kind of “left” party we need, then you should argue that openly. Rather than shielding them by arguing that criticism of them for not being that party is “redundant” because, well, at least in your view they aren’t hypocrites. (Just to be clear, I don’t think that you have all that rosy a view of SF, which is precisely why I find the “they never said they were that kind of party” argument so mystifyingly irrelevant).
CL thinks a party of the left should be certain things and argue certain things, few of which SF are or will do. Criticising them on that basis is perfectly reasonable, regardless of whether SF meet their own dubious standards. The issue is whether CL is right about what kind of party we need, not whether SF are hypocrites for not meeting his/her standards.
I’m not going to have another go around on the issue of SF’s role as austerity enforcers in the North this evening, so I’ll let that one pass.
LikeLike
It’s not that I think SF is the left party we need. It’s that it’s the only left of centre formation that exists at this point in time of any size. I agree with you, there’s many deeply problematic aspects to it, not least how even that mild left of centre aspect will hold up over the next few years. But I’m not trying to shield them from criticism so much as point out the paucity of other forces capable of doing much at all.And therefore it seems to me to be logical to hold SF to the standard they’ve set themselves, even if that is not ideally the standard I would set.
I don’t want to criticise CL but I do think that his definition of a party that would satisfy him is probably so specific and so unlikely to appear – given that he continually argues that social democracy of any form is an utter failure – that I’m not entirely convinced of the utility of his argument. It is in fact true that traditional social democrat parties have failed in the last quarter century, perhaps more, but citizens do not seem to be attracted in any significant numbers to formations much further left than what I would broadly regard as mid to left social demccracy, and often not even then.
So what he, or you, or I, might want, or what we might think we need, seems to me to be in most respects quite irrelevant. I can’t see it happening any time soon – particularly if after the worst crisis of capitalism in our lifetimes it hasn’t happened yet.
BTW, none of this is an argument against the further left, or that people should fold their tents and go home. The influence of the further left is limited but not entirely non existent. It’s difficult to believe that the framing of the most recent elections in relation to austerity (though again, CL doesn’t really believe anti-austerity is a left issue) would have occurred without the input of the further left, at least to some degree. But it is to suggest that worrying about the sort of parties we need is all a bit academic.
LikeLike
I don’t want Sinn Fein to be any particular kind of party, so I’m not complaining that they are not that hypothetical party.
As citizens we have a right to know from a party that aspires to state power why it does not have a coherent, consistent economic policy.
I’m not saying Sinn Fein are selling out. But I would like to know which stance is the principled one that they assert they won’t compromise on: the pro-austerity position or the anti-austerity one?
LikeLike
I think it’s true to say it was a mintake of the SWP /PBPA to run Brid , but to claim that Paul would have been elected if Brid hadn’t ran, is going to far; the numbers don’t add up.If people would’t give Paul a 2nd pref why
would they give Paul a 1st if Brid hadn’t stood.
The real damage to the Left and indeed to the SWP/PBPA , is the bitterness this has caused, illustrated by the comments here and Ruth’s comments on TV.
I hope the SWP/PBPA IS cop on and do not repeat the error and consequent damage by running a candidate against Joan, a veteran hard working grassroots working-class activist
LikeLike
Why do people wish for an affinity between parties who cordially hate each other ?
Brid smith ran an effective campaign
Paul Murphys poster messaging was all over the place…maybe a question of too much European money….
What are the financial implications for the SP of loss of euro funding ?
LikeLike