SP/AAA and PBPA/SWP results — an alternative reading June 3, 2014Posted by Tomboktu in AAA, PBPA, Socialist Party.
In the local election, both the Anti Austerity Alliance and the People Before Profit Alliance won 14 seats. Those figures have been hailed by both groupings as successes, and they certainly are when compared with the number of seats they had before the council elections. Adrian Kavanagh, of NUI Maynooth, has described their results as especially good.
I wondered to what extent the two outcomes are due to the two parties/alliances distinguishing themselves and to what extent are they due to getting their “share” of the votes for “none of the above” (that is, none the mainstream parties). Put another way, the question is: if the AAA and PBPA candidates had simply run as independents, would have have fared better or worse on average than they did as AAA or PBPA candidates?
The answer is: they did a small bit above average. It would seem that the rising tide of “others” that the opinion pollers lump the AAA and PBPA into may simply have lifted the AAA and PBPA to their 14 seats each. Sums are below the “fold”.
A total of 17 “entities” contested the council elections — counting all actual independents as an entity for the calculations. Four of these are the big parties of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Sinn Féin and Labour. In addition to the AAA and PBPA, the others are: CPI, DDI, Eirigí, Fis Nua, GP, LRP (in Letterkenny — one candidate), SKIA (in South Kerry — one candidate), UL, WP, and WUA
I excluded the four big parties (and in a second run, I also excluded the Green Party, but it did not change the findings significantly).
Outside those four parties, 766 candidates ran, and 237 were elected. Here are the success rates
- All of those outside the “big four”: 31%.
- The actual independents (that is, not counting CPI, DDI, UL, etc.): 33%
- AAA: 36%
- PBPA: 33%
Taking the Green Party out of the calculation, so that the “big four” becomes “Big four and GP” leaves the election rate for for all others unchanged.
In contrast, Sinn Féin were streets ahead of the four parties that have been in government (south of the border), getting 81% of the their candidates onto councils. Labour lagged behind the PBPA and AAA, getting 27% of their candidates elected.
But for the moment, the AAA and PBPA are not distinguishing themselves in success rates from the “others”.