More unintended consequence after the referendum on Scotland and independence October 30, 2014
Posted by WorldbyStorm in British Politics.trackback
…or perhaps not. A new poll suggests that in Scotland there may be significant losses for the Labour Party as the SNP increases support substantially. And the knock on effect is that that may dent Labour’s prospects come the next British General Election.
The dramatic poll for STV said the SNP could win up to 54 Scottish seats and said Labour’s popularity was its lowest level since 2007, only a month after Labour had spearheaded a victorious referendum campaign against independence.
The poll put the SNP at a record high of 52% in Westminster voting intentions and Labour at just 23%.
It’s not just the referendum, there’s also this:
In a mark of the damage caused by the bruising resignation of Scottish Labour leader Johann Lamont last week, when she accused Miliband of treating her party like “a branch office”, Miliband said his party had already been though a “tough week” and implied it would get worse.
Of course there’s a way to go to the next election, but…
With the Ipsos Mori poll for STV implying that the SNP would win 54 Westminster seats – a ninefold increase on the six seats it currently holds – losing scores of crucial Scottish Labour seats would be a potentially fatal blow to Miliband’s hopes of winning an overall majority at Westminster, since UK-wide polls suggest Labour and the Tories are neck and neck.
It’s difficult to blame the Scottish electorate. Some like to see the flow of support to the SNP as ‘nationalism’ incarnate, but I tend to see that as a shallow reading of the situation. When contextualised with the support for devo max options in polling the support of the SNP suggests that the dynamic both at the referendum is more one of disenchantment with both Labour and the Tories (the latter being all but wiped out in terms of representation at UK level in Scotland). Given that the SNP pushes a mildly progressive line (though with some pretty gaping flaws) it’s hardly surprising that many might prefer that over a Labour Party that appears transfixed with fear at the idea of articulating anything more than the mildest most anodyne centre (with the emphasis on centre) left ideas, and even then resiling from that. Add to that a sense that they are makeweights for a British Labour Party that is incapable of making headway under its own steam, and Scotland and the Scottish must suffer due to that incapacity, and it’s hardly surprising there’s a detachment from it. Indeed it’s also important to note the demographics of this. Prospect recently had some intriguing thoughts on why outright federalism is unfeasible in the UK, in large part because of the different weights of population in England, Scotland and Wales. Simply put England is too big, Scotland too small, and Wales too small again. So any simple federal arrangement simply results in English predominance. Given the actual distinctions between those areas (different legal and other systems) it’s hardly surprising that that would rankle.
UK Polling Report has an interesting take on this:
[polls] have been suggesting a strong showing for the SNP since the referendum. Today we have a proper, bespoke Scottish poll by Ipsos MORI and if anything it shows the SNP doing even better than the crossbreaks suggested. Topline voting intentions in Westminster with changes since the general election are CON 10%(-7), LAB 23%(-19), LDEM 6%(-13), SNP 52%(+32), GRN 6%(+5).
And…
This would, to say the least, be rather a radical turnaround from the last general election. I don’t think swingometers offer much guidance in the case of really extreme results (a uniform swing would be mathematically impossible on this results – for example, there are about 9 seats in Scotland where Labour got less than 19% in 2010, so couldn’t lose 19% this time round…. but for the record on a uniform swing these figures would result in the SNP winning all but two seats in Scotland.
Well, who can tell? The politics of this subsequent to that sort of an outcome are fascinating. As is the question as to who might be pleased with such outcomes…
The Cedar Lounge Revolution 
On the other hand, 50+ SNP MPs are hardly going to troop through the lobbies supporting Cameron for PM are they? They’d almost b obliged to support a minority Labour administration
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Would the press not pull the same trick as last time though if the LP had less MPs than the Tories and say the latter had the moral right to form a government. Of course we’d need to see the seat projections. Though just looking here you’re right… on current figures the LP would still be ahead of the Tories even if it lost all 52 (I think that’s the total at the next GE) Scottish seats .. http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/ukpr-projection-2
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Speaking of unintended consequences it would seem to me that one is ukip can now deflect the whole argument that a vote for then is a vote for labour. If labor lose 40 or so seats then voting 10 kippers doesn’t seem to be as serious a blow to conservatives.
Still labour made their bed so good luck to them. Voting labor and getting better together was surely to much for people to stomach.
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Just how out of touch Labour in Scotland is can be seen by the fact that the front runner for the leadership is the ultra-Blairite, expenses fiddling, member of ‘Friends of Israel’, Westminster insider Jim Murphy. It beggars belief that they would think that this right-winger will be the one to win back the third of their voters, mostly working class west of Scotland voters, that voted Yes. On the positive side his likely victory will only accelerate the process of decline.
To really understand how desperate things are for Labour in Scotland note that they refuse to release their current membership figures, which on the last count was 13,000, but is more likely to be around 5000. Thats less than the membership of the Scottish Green Party! So while pro-indy parties and groups have seen a massive surge in membership, the ‘victors’ in Labour are afraid to admit how small their membership is.
Anyone familiar with whats happening on the ground in Scotland will know that the surge in SNP membership and support has little to do with nationalism: its a massive reaction to the referendum and to peoples correct perception that Labour is a rotten pillar of the establishment. The problem is that without a united left party its a logical, though in my view mistaken, thing for people to opt for the main pro-indy party. On the positive side the Radical Independence Campaign is helping to fill that vacuum on the left, its Nov 22nd coference is sold out (3000 places)and a number of RIC activists and others have started the process of working towards the formation of a new left party. Its not something that can be done overnight and it will have to involve lots of people in different organisations, or not in any orgs, but its a start.
http://thepeopledemand.org/#Statement
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Good luck with the conference, Colm – I’m fascinated to see what may come of it. Scotland may lead the way for the rest of the d(isunited)UK.
Do you think there’s a chance of a good number of candidates being fielded in the coming elections?
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There are a number of problems with the upcoming Westminster elections from a left perspective:
1. Many people, obviously including the huge number of left/working class people who’ve joined the SNP, argue that we should just vote SNP in these elections, to sweep away Labour and to establish the strength of pro-indy sentiment etc. because SNP is only force capable of doing this.
2. Many across the left argue more broadly for a Yes Alliance for these elections: i.e. that an agreed Yes Alliance candidate (SNP, Green, SSP, indep etc.) would stand in each constituency, again based on the same arguments as above minus the carte blance to the SNP.
3. A third option would be to run pro-indy left candidates based on the need to keep alive a pro-indy current to the left of the SNP.
4. Another option would be for the left not to participate at all on the basis that the Westminster elections are irrelevant to the building of an indyleft movement.
The reality is that no left candidate that I know of would be in the running in any constituency: its going to be a straight SNP/Labour fight almost everywhere (with a few exceptions like the Tory seat in the Borders and the Lib Dem strongholds in Orkney/Shetland). The second issue is that there is not much prospect of a new left party/left allaince being in place by May 2015 . I might be wrong but I think we’re talking about a longer time frame.
Like a lot of people on the left Im still trying to get to grips with this but let’s take it that the following form basis for a serious left approach:
1. The need for an indepedent working class representation
2. The SNP is not a left party/working class party but a nationalist party with social democratic and neo-liberal wings, albeit with the s.d. wing in the asendence
3. The need to ensure that a strong indy left movement exists for when Scotland becomes indep (only a matter of time in my view)
How do we connect the realistic options with this approach? I just don’t have the answers now, which in a way is not a bad thing because the answers should emerge from discusssion and debate. The good news is that lots of that is happening right now and hopefully the RIC conference will begin a process of clarification.
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I agree there’s no time to set up a left party as such before the upcoming general election and the best plan is to get behind the SNP/Green or SSP candidate that is most likely to win in each constitutency .
there’s an interesting multi-medial portal being set up to maximise the campaign for pro-scotland candidates in the 2015 GE. Well worth supporting
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Yougov also came out with a Scotland poll to compliment the Ipsos-MORI one. Less extreme results, but still terrible for SLAB. SNP 43%, SLAB 27%, CON 15%, UKIP 6%, LDs 4%, Greens 4%.
Yougov also asked about Scottish Parliament voting intention; in the regional question the SSP popped up with 3%, which must be enlivening to them, it might be enough to get them some seats if it’s sufficiently concentrated in the Glasgow and Lothians regions.
Click to access Times-results-141030-scotland-day-1.pdf
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I would suggest that its unlikely that the SSP will be at the races. Presumably Sheridan will top a Glasgow list under some banner, and even if he doesn’t, there will be other left wing contenders, and even if there aren’t there will be something of a squeeze from the SNP.
A united or semi-united Scottish left party/alliance/whatever may make an impact, but I suspect that such a thing won’t happen.
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I’ve seen claims they’ve gained 2,500 new members, I would have thought though that those newer members wouldn’t exactly be comfortable with idea of not turning up, that is barring some sort of broader lash-up.
https://twitter.com/scott_eff/status/514910745113677825
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I’m sure they will run. What I’m very dubious about is the idea that they will be in the running for a seat. Post split the SSP have occasionally featured in a poll, but in practice, to the very limited extent that such a poll result turned into actual votes, they have gone to Sheridan more than the SSP.
Maybe it’s different this time and really does reflect a small new enthusiasm for the SSP rather than an old enthusiasm for its former leader. You never know, I suppose.
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On the point of Sheridan’s ability to attract votes, the SSP managed 5.4% in the Glasgow South-West constituency in 2005 without Sheridan as candidate, rolling on 5 years to 2010 Sheridan ran as Solidarity’s candidate and got only 2.9%. Now this isn’t exactly categorical, and he might rebound in the future, but I can’t help up think that his shine isn’t exactly blinding anyone these days.
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Post split, the only thing less “shiny” in electoral terms than Sheridan has been the rump SSP. Consistently so.
Maybe one or both will benefit from the independence movement. Just as the SSP has been claiming a surge of membership applications, Sheridan spent the campaign addressing very large gatherings, largely pulled by his name. I would still be very surprised if the SSP took a seat and slightly surprised if Sheridan did (assuming both run).
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Mark, is not the SP affiliate in Solidarity. What are teh relative strenghts and relationships between Solidarity, SSP an dthe Radical Independence Campaign. Oh you will be glad to hear that the IMT group has converted (without saying so) to Independence and joined the SSP.
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You have to love how the Grant/Woods group came to the party 25 years too late. That’s in Scotland by the way, in England the IMT is still embedded in the traditional party of the working class waiting for the masses to flood back into it.
I don’t know a huge amount about the left in Scotland in recent times – the entire Sheridan ‘controversy’ did a lot of damage. I suspect that the SSP has a more structured organisation than Solidarity, despite the fact that the SPS and SWP are in Solidarity. Votes-wise Sheridan can still attract a bigger vote than the SSP.
I am dubious about the claims of the SSP for 2500 new members. I suspect that this is more a case of people who signed something or other about wanting to join during the campaign (from what I understand the Socialist Party Scotland has a stack load of names from the campaign as well – there may even be some cross-over). How many of these people become active in some way or other remains to be seen.
It is the height of opportunism for the IMT to join the SSP – they only did it because of the SSP’s claim of new members in the hope of poaching a few.
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A couple of articles http://links.org.au/node/4126 and SSP conference http://links.org.au/node/4123. Well with a overfilled RIC conference there is obviously a huge ferment. And if the stopped clock marxists of the IMT are getting involved, surely that is proof.
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