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Fianna Fail and The Next Election…. February 27, 2015

Posted by irishelectionliterature in Irish Politics.
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Carlow-Kilkenny (5) Probably run three candidates with 2 Kilkenny and 1 Carlow based candidate. Labours seat is vulnerable and one of the Fine Gael ones is too. Polled well in the Local elections in both Counties. Should win 2 seats, although Geography could give them a surprise third were the Carlow based candidate to outpoll Pat Deering.

Cavan-Monaghan (4) Reduced to four seats from five. Will win at least one seat. A big ask to win a second seat as three of the five seats are currently held by Monaghan based TD’s.

Clare (4) Fianna Fail polled just over a quota here in 2011 but polled 36% here in the Locals. The Labour seat will go but I’d imagine that will go to an Independent. Good vote management and just two candidates and there is a possibility of a second seat but unlikely.

Cork East (4) Polled .85 of a quota in 2011 , Should win a seat here at the expense of either Fine Gael or Labour. If not it’s going to be another very long day for Fianna Fail
Cork North Central (4) Boundary changes here have removed some of Billy Kellehers base. Likely to be gains for at lest one SF or AAA candidate. Should hold on.
Cork North West (3) Should hold the seat here easily.
Cork South Central (4) Reduced from five to four seats with some Boundary changes. Some high profile TD’s with Micháel Martin, Michael McGrath running for FF, Simon Coveney and Jerry Buttimer for FG , Ciaran Lynch for Labour. Should see a gain for Sinn Fein. There will be at least 1 FF, 1 FG and 1 SF. I’d imagine it’s going to be a battle for the final seat between FG and FF, LAbour transfers could swing it for FG. Possible FF loss

Cork South West (3) Will win at least one seat here.
Donegal (5) Two 3 seaters made into a five seater. Should win at least one seat here, although Geography could give them a second.
Dublin Central (3) Would take quite an upturn in the polls to win here especially after Boundary changes.
Dublin Bay North (5) Should be a seat here but only if they run a single candidate. Should be some Selection Convention.
Dublin Bay South (4) Unlikely to win a seat here.
Dublin Fingal (5) Missed out narrowly the last time, should win a seat here.
Dublin North West (3) Highly unlikely
Dublin Mid West (4) Could be in with a shout of the last seat but unlikely.
Dublin Rathdown (3) Could be in with a shout of the last seat but unlikely
Dublin South Central (4) Highly unlikely
Dublin South West (5) The addition of Rathfarnham should help them be in with a shout of the last seat.Probably won’t win though.
Dublin West (4) A big battle here to win a seat. With Ruth Coppinger, Leo Varadkar and Sinn Fein looking good bets for a seat, will probably have to unseat Joan Burton.
Dun Laoghaire (4) If Sean Barrett stays as Ceann Comhairle will in effect be a three seater. FG will win at least one seat. FF polled well in the Locals but would need to unseat Gilmore or Boyd Barrett to win, to complicate matters there may also be a Ross candidate here. As is stands a big ask to win a seat here. This is another selection convention that could surprise.

Galway East(3) Most likely just the one.
Galway West (5)  Second seat a possibility, just a question of who takes the Derek Nolan seat.
Kerry County (5) No current FF TD, likely 1 seat at least.
Kildare North (4) Will win a seat here .
Kildare South (3) Will retain their seat.
Laois (3) Will win a seat here.
Offaly(3) With a bit of luck they could win a second seat here.

Limerick City (4) Willie O’Dea will retain his seat, unlikely to bring in a running mate.
Limerick County (3) Niall Collins will hold on here again unlikely to bring in a running mate.
Longford-Westmeath (4) Will win the one seat, if they have a good Longford based candidate, may win a second.
Louth(5) Will win the one seat here
Mayo (4) One seat a certainty an outside chance of a second.
Meath East (3) Should regain seat here
Meath West (3) Should regain a seat here also
Roscommon-Galway (3) Should win here, but I’ve a suspicion they may be squeezed out.
Sligo-Leitrim (4) Should be a seat gain for FF here.
Tipperary (5) Highly competitive constituency with some high profile Independent candidates. Winning would mean at least two of the six sitting TDs Alan Kelly, Michael Lowry, Noel Coonan, Seamus Healy, Mattie McGrath and Tom Hayes would lose out. There should be an FF seat here. Running two candidates might scupper hopes of winning a seat.
Waterford (4) With Sinn Fein poised to take a seat here from Labour and John Halligan looking safe it would be one of the Fine Gael seats being targeted. I think they will just miss out.
Wexford(5) Currently have one seat here, unlikely to win a second.
Wicklow (5) Sinn Fein will gain a seat here, one of the FG seats will fall. Stephen Donnelly should hold leaving FF chasing after the Labour seat. If Anne Ferris runs as an Independent she could hold on. There is also Joe Behan to take some of the FF genepool vote. I suspect FF wont win here.

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Comments»

1. WorldbyStorm - February 27, 2015

Brilliant rundown. Just looking at the Dublin constituencies and the ones potentially without FF TDs. Amazing. But the loss of a seat in Cork, possibly, the inability to bring in running mates in Galway and Limerick and what about Waterford.

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Tawdy - February 27, 2015

You have Limerick East and West bang on. But it signifies an overall loss for ff.

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WorldbyStorm - February 27, 2015

Strange times!

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WorldbyStorm - February 27, 2015

BTW, I must be undercounting but from the above I get 28 FF seats? Is that right?

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irishelectionliterature - February 27, 2015

Yes I think 28 but they will probably pick up one or two of the unlikely ones.
A lot of course can change in the lead up to the election. For FF to go up a good bit they need to be able to sufficiently differentiate themselves from the other parties, which is something not happening at the moment.

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WorldbyStorm - February 28, 2015

That’s a stunning result. Less than Kavanagh’s predictions but as you say local oddities count for more than a little in such contests. Again, brilliant post.

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2. sonofstan - February 28, 2015

5% fewer seats on offer, and more three seaters, with the vote in much of the country splitting 5 ways, and we could be looking at the least representative seat tally V vote percentage since the consequences of the Tully-mander in ’77. A party that breaks 30% could be in for a significant seat bonus, assuming they have the candidates.

If the Ind/Others vote stays where it is in polls, there will be a lot of votes ‘wasted’ in the sense of not electing anyone, and party candidates will be drifting into final seats on way below the quota

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WorldbyStorm - February 28, 2015

That’s a dynamic that needs to be looked at more. Kavanagh’s projections kind of catch it but there will be a lot of wasted votes.

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irishelectionliterature - February 28, 2015

There will be lots of factors, for instance Labour transfers will probably save a few FG seats and vice versa.
WIll have one up on the Dublin constituencies at some stage next week.

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sonofstan - February 28, 2015

Actually, maybe I’m wrong about more 3 seaters? was looking at the new ones, but missing that Donegal, Kerry and Tipp are seeing two 3s become one 5 – all of those will be interesting, because the North/ South divide in each reflected the fact that all three have poles that are quite distinct in quite a few respects

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