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Projections after the latest poll March 26, 2015

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Irish Politics, The Left.
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Impressive work from IEL getting those results of the IT poll so early – earlier than the IT website, for at 3am I went looking and they weren’t posted up on it. Anyhow, some poll that, indicating both FG and SF up, Ind/Others still with a huge bloc of support, the LP making utterly marginal gains and FF… well, that’s all analysis for another day.

But someone else burning the midnight oil is the indefatigable Adrian Kavanagh who projects the following:

Independents and Others 28% (down 4%), Fine Gael 24% (up 5%), Sinn Fein 24% (up 2%), Fianna Fail 17% (down 1%), Labour Party 7% (up 1%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 28, Fine Gael 46, Sinn Fein 40, Labour Party 4, Independents and Others 40.

SF contesting for 40 seats? Ind/Others likewise. An LP that is hardly even a rump (fascinating how the strength of others renders even 7% for that party less useful, though presumably there’d be some transfers on election day that might buoy it up a little). And overall. SF and Ind/Others on 80 seats.

Of course that’s not going to be the election result, or probably anything like it. On a good day if SF and Ind/Others get 60 between them they’ll be doing remarkably well, but… how things have changed that FF and FG would hardly muster 75 seats between them. Is that the sound of leadership challengers massing? Might be for one. All that said the logic remains of FF and FG forging, presumably with the assistance of the Ross Brigade or RENUA (they like the name written in caps I’m told), an alliance to govern.

And that alone would represent a fundamental rupture with the previous settled dispensation in this state…

Comments»

1. sonofstan - March 26, 2015

A rupture?

FG V SF is still civil war politics.

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WorldbyStorm - March 26, 2015

That seems to me to be a somewhat reductionist reading if by civil war politics the dynamic is one of difference over the particulars of the civil war with no ideological (for which read left/right) differentiation between the protagonists. I’m even leery about the notion that SF today represents an unbroken continuity with that period given the ruptures within it.

But the point is that fundamentally the hold FF and FG have had on the polity, particularly the former, is it would seem fading. And it’s not just SF but also Ind Ofhers.

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sonofstan - March 26, 2015

I could turn it around and say that the notion that the FF/FG duopoly was ‘just’ about the civil war is itself reductionist, or, certainly, was not the way a lot of FF voters up to at least the ’50s would have seen it. I’m not claiming that FF were a ‘left’ party, but they were certainly not ‘the same’ as CnaG/ FG

You’re right though; my earlier snark was a bit, well, snarky.

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WorldbyStorm - March 26, 2015

And there I was thinking my response could be taken as snarky! 🙂

But I think you raise a valid point – a lot if the analysis from all quarters is reductionist and class bases aren’t negligible in all this either.

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PaddyM - March 26, 2015

AB voters: FG 43, Ind/Oth 31, FF 14, Lab 7, SF 6
C1 voters: Ind/Oth 29, FG 24, FF 19, SF 19, Lab 9
C2 voters: Ind/Oth 31, SF 30, FG 19, FF 14, Lab 5
DE voters: SF 36, Ind/Oth 26, FF 16, FG 15, Lab 8
F1/F2 voters: FG 35, FF 29, SF 17, Ind/Oth 17, Lab 2

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6/5against - March 26, 2015

Would I be right in saying that the class differential in voting intentions has never been so stark? (In Ireland)

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WorldbyStorm - March 26, 2015

It looks that way, doesn’t it?

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Pasionario - March 28, 2015

But F1/F2 voters plump overwhelmingly for FG/FF. If memory serves, results at the last election were similar. What’s that about? Shades of the 18th Brumaire?

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2. Joe - March 26, 2015

At 3am you went looking WBS?

CLR the site that never sleeps.

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WorldbyStorm - March 26, 2015

Hahah, yeah, I’m a light enough sleeper. Often wake for half an hour during the night and if I can’t get back immediately I’ll check the headlines.

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sonofstan - March 26, 2015

We reds don’t get much sleep under the bed.

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WorldbyStorm - March 26, 2015

Or on it.

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LeftAtTheCross - March 27, 2015

Decaffinated tea and coffee, it’s yer only man. Well worth the cold turkey for the good sleeps afterwards.

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3. Liberius - March 26, 2015

When that figure is broken down, 21 per cent say they will vote Independent, 3 per cent will vote for the Green Party and 4 per cent for other smaller parties or groups.

It would be good if they could be bothered to actually tell us how that 4% breaks, to AAA & PBPA, or to Renua (I’m having none of these caps, if they want caps then they’ll have to make it an acronym)?

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/fine-gael-support-bounces-back-after-12-year-low-in-last-poll-1.2153425

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Jack Jameson - March 26, 2015

Are we presuming that AAA = SP here, Liberius?

If not, we need to see separate polling for AAA, SP and PBPA.

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Liberius - March 26, 2015

The pollsters would no doubt be recording the AAA and the SP separately, B&A did it their recent poll anyway. Personally I don’t really see what the point would be in that given that the SP looks like running candidates under the AAA banner for the time being. Take the obvious comparison, does anyone care about how many people are supporting the SWP specifically rather than PBPA more generally?

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Jack Jameson - March 27, 2015

I don’t think too many would support the SWP under their own banner, hence the PBPA front.

The SP, on the other hand, is a stronger brand/identity (and claim to be more principled), so why don’t their candidates stand as SP rather than AAA?

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Mark P - March 27, 2015

Because the Anti Austerity Alliance is the Socialist Party plus a bunch of activists from the campaign against the household tax, not just the Socialist Party. More than half of the AAA’s local election candidates weren’t in the SP, and more than a third of its councillors aren’t.

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4. Paddy Healy - March 26, 2015

Adrian Kavanagh gives predictions based on final outcomes though the core votes in the two most recent polls are the same!

The Only Difference in the Polls is the the application of outdated Filters by B&A and Red C
Read Full Analysis http://wp.me/pKzXa-jh

IPSOS/MRBI(Irish Times) to-day is virtually identical to B&A(Sunday Times) March 16

Ipsos/MRBI Mar 25 Undecided 24, Others 22, FF 13, FG 18, Lab 5, SF 18

B&A Mar 16 Undecided 24, Others 19, FF 14, Fg 19, Lab 5, SF 19

The probable error for 95% confidence on each party score is approximately 3% in both cases

Ipsos/Mrbi unlike B&A, does not use likelihood to vote or recall of vote in the last general election filters.

The final outcome in B&A for FG was 27% and for SF was 19% !!!

The final outcome in IPSOS/MRBI for FG was 24% and for SF was 24% !!!

The difference is the application of outdated filters by B&A!!!!

I can see or hear no comment in the media this morning to the effect that the results of the two polls are in fact statistically identical. !!!!!

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5. roddy - March 26, 2015

Pardon my stupidity but could someone explain the various voter categories ,(ie) ab cd f1 etc

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CMK - March 26, 2015

AB = rich, upper middle classes; CD = middle income/class; EF = ‘working class’/lower orders. In rough terms, it’s gibberish from the market research industry but influential among wannabe Blairite types.

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PaddyM - March 26, 2015

F1/F2 are farmers (over/under 50 acres, I think).
C2 is meant to be skilled working class, DE semi-skilled and unskilled working class respectively.

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6. roddy - March 26, 2015

What are f1/f2 then?

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Liberius - March 26, 2015

Farmers.

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Kieran Glennon - March 26, 2015

F1 = farmers with over 50 acres land, F2 = less than 50 acres. I think an acre is roughly two football pitches but I could be wrong.

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que - March 26, 2015

That would not be too far off.

50 acres is a funny division point. As if the farmer with 60 acres is in a sweet position.

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No splitter - March 26, 2015

An acre is less than a football pitch

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7. Paddy Healy - March 26, 2015

Labour Comes Last Among the Poorest Strata
D+E voters: SF 36, Ind/Oth 26, FF 16, FG 15, Lab 8
Analysis http://wp.me/pKzXa-jh

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