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Tipperary and the next election May 29, 2015

Posted by irishelectionliterature in Irish Politics.
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The two three seaters of Tipperary North and Tipperary South united to form the new five seater Tipperary Constituency. A part of North Tipp has gone to the new Offaly constituency. It is thought that this area was an area where Labours Alan Kelly would have polled well.
Currently the sitting TD’s are Noel Coonan and Tom Hayes of Fine Gael, Alan Kelly of Labour , Seamus Healy of WUAG as well as Independents Mattie McGrath and Michael Lowry. All are due to contest the next election.

So we have a redraw, going from 6 to 5 seats and all six sitting TDs due to contest. Fianna Fail won 3 of the six seats available in 2007 but lost out in both North and South in 2011, so they will be looking to win back at least the one seat.

Sinn Fein won a seat in each of the five council areas in 2014 and if the polls are correct they should be in with a chance here. Their main problem is that although their councillors would be known in some areas they wouldn’t have a Countywide profile so it may be difficult to win a seat here. This could also be a place where Renua could be in with a chance were they to attract a well known respected candidate. So thats at least nine candidates with decent prospects of winning a seat.

Talking to Tipp contacts there is an assumption that Michael Lowry and Tom Hayes should be safe. After that it’s anybodys …..
Fianna Fail have selected former ICMSA head Jackie Cahill ,he has should have a good chance (however the area gone to Offaly would have been good FF country).
Tom Hayes has been a TD longer and is better placed geographically of the two Fine Gael TDs, so he is more likely than Noel Coonan to hold on.
Alan Kelly should be in trouble and Labour only won the one seat in Tipperary in the Local Elections, part of his Nenagh hinterland has moved to the new Offaly constituency what could save him is if Fine Gael lose a seat it could be those Fine Gael transfers that get him over the line.
Mattie McGrath has a high profile and would be ‘a good constituency TD’ and there are plenty of FF gene pool votes in Tipp. His base in Newcastle in the South West of Tipp may do him no favours geographically.
For Fianna Fail Jackie Cahill has a good chance, although it is suspected that Siobhan Ambrose and/ or Michael Smith jnr will be added to the ticket. They certainly need a candidate in the South. There should be an FF seat here but it is one hell of a competitive constituency and Mattie McGrath and Michael Lowry may hoover up potential FF support .
Seamus Healy , who lost his seat in 2007 before regaining it in 2011, is probably vulnerable, especially with the Geographical situation of Clonmel and WUAG only winning one Council seat at the Local Elections. The scrapping of Clonmel Borough Council was also a blow for WUAG ….. which has led to unlikely talk of him running for Sinn Fein. Sinn Fein will poll well but will find it hard to win a seat as they have no particularly high profile candidates . Were Healy to run for Sinn Fein he would hold his seat easily. An unlikely scenario but you never know. That said he could probably rely on some Sinn Fein transfers depending on the candidate they select.

A bloodbath of a constituency so. I have a funny feeling it will end up being Lowry, Hayes, McGrath, Healy and somehow Alan Kelly will win a seat…….. but I could be totally wrong

Comments»

1. Paddy Healy - May 29, 2015

Firstly let me assure everybody that Seamus Healy will be a candidate of WUA, a nationally registered political party at the next Ggeneral election. There are many rumours circulating in Tipperary probably arising out of the delayed selection conventions of FF and SF. There is another rumour circulating thaty Brendan Ogle will be the Sinn Féin Candidate!! I assume this is being put out by people who are not friends of Brendan Ogle or of Sinn Fein. Seamus Healy actually first heard that he was to be a SF candidate 6 months ago in the Dáil restaurant from now Commissioner Phil Hogan. Now it has reached Irish Election Literature!!!!
STOP PRESS
I have just been informed that Martin Masergh came last of five candidates at the FF convention held last night. The nomination was won by Jackie Cahill, former President of the Irish Creamery milk Suppliers association from the Thurles area . Cllr Smith (Roscrea) headed the poll but got few transfers. Immediately after the Local elections in which Smith headed the poll in his area, Smith was regarded as a certainty. But Smith did not support the FF candidate for Mayor of Thurles/Roscrea/Templemore and did a deal with Ml Lowry instead!!!
FF will add a second candidate. Will it be Martin Mansergh? Will it be one of the two female contenders, Cllr Siobhán Ambrose, Clonmel or Clrr Golsboro, East Tipperary?
WATCH THIS SPACE!
The Sinn Féin convention will be held shortly. A numbe of Sinn Féin councillors are seeking the nomination.

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irishelectionliterature - May 29, 2015

Thanks Paddy, what way would you see the seats going?

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2. Paddy Healy - May 29, 2015

Sorry, I fotgot to chrck the box

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3. Joe - May 29, 2015

When will the next election be?

I would say that Labour will want to hold out till spring 2016. They will put all their eggs in the basket of the “€1000 per annum” increase which will appear in the pay packets of public servants in Jan 2016.

Would love to see Enda throw them under a bus before then by calling the election for autumn 2015. But I doubt he will.

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irishelectionliterature - May 29, 2015

You wouldn’t know, there’s a few things that could brew nicely over the Summer and they would also be gambling on Interest rates staying as they are. If interest rates go up, for many that’s the €1000 gone straight to the bank rather than into your pocket.

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4. Paddy Healy - May 29, 2015

Irish Election Literature seems not to realise that it is the North Tipperary sitting TDs and candidates who will be disadvantaged by the constituency revision. Firstly, The area from Nenagh up to Portumna Bridge has gone into Offally (local wags have dubbed this area “The Gaza Strip”!.) But this is not the only reason. Significant partts of the old Tipperary SR Co Council were in the old North Tipp constituency and were unable to vote for South Tipp candidates, including councillors from their areas, in General elections!
This has now changed with voters from Killenaule, Holycross/Hollyford and Cappawhite now free to vote for South Tipp candidates.
In addition, the balance of population is strongly in favour of South Tipp based candidates.
Thanks to IEL for drawing attention to this highly interesting new constituency
QUESTION
Within parties, wht will be the rate of transfer from Noth to South and vice versa.
I look forward to the election and to a fascinating tally.
When the constituency was last All Tipperary, the Healy family from North and South Tipp canvassed for Paddy Kinanne (Clnn Na Poblactha-Upprchurch,Thurles) and he won a bye-election (1947)!

Blame IEL for getting me started!!!

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irishelectionliterature - May 29, 2015

Paddy in my final prediction I had 2 North Tipp and 3 South Tipp TDs holding on.
It is a fascinating constituency and one that should be watched. I do think Geography will play quite a part in transfers rather than just voting the FF or FG slate. Tipp hasn’t got the attention yet it deserves.
Kerry and Donegal are similar in that you have two 3 seaters being turned into a 5 seater. Anyway there’ll be more of these over the next few months.
Any suggestions as to where outside of Dublin might be worthwhile to do next?

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5. Paddy Healy - May 29, 2015

The thing that is unique about Tipperary is that it also had TWO COUNTY COUNCILS. This is not so in Kerry and Donegal. Voters in Co Kerry, Donegal would be familiar with councillors from all over the County
The longstanding division of Tipp into 2 Ridings corresponds to the fact that South Tipp was a relatively highly industrialised part of Ireland for over a century.It is a natural part of the Suir Valley, including Cahir, Clonmel, Carrick-on- Suir and Waterford City. It was unionised before Larkin, both my grandfathers being members of “The Amalgamated” now called UNITE. That is why the Irish TUC Congress which founded the Labour party was held in Clonmel in 1912.
North Tipp particularly the Nenagh and Roscrea areas and hinterlands were naturally part of the midlands region.

Transfers within parties from North to South and vice versa are much more problematic in Tipp for this reason. Carlow-Kilkenny is a much closer analogue to Tipperary than Kerry or Donegal. Like Carlow/Kilkenny, SouthTipp is part of the South East Region while North tipp is part of the Mid-West Region.
See my stuff on the recent Carlow-Kilkenny bye-election on my blog http://wp.me/pKzXa-kQ

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6. roddy - May 29, 2015

I would be hoping for a SF seat in Tipp but would not like to see it at Seamus Healey’s expense.

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7. More on Tipperary at the GE… | The Cedar Lounge Revolution - July 21, 2015

[…] Paddy Healy sends this which links back to IEL’s post here on that constituency. […]

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