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Latest RedC Poll for the Sunday Business Post May 30, 2015

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.


Support for Government parties has increased according to the latest RED C opinion poll, to be published in the Sunday Business Post.

The prominence of Government ministers and TDs before and after the referendum on same-sex marriage, may be a contributing factor to the boost in support.

The figures are:

FG 28% [+3], IND/OTHER PARTIES 22% [-4], SF 21% [-1], FF 19% [NC],  LP 10% [+2]

It notes:

Within IND/OTHER PARTIES the Green party are on 3% and Renua on 1%.


Despite the gains in this and other polls the Government is still a long way off the kind of support it needs to be returned as a two party coalition.

However this opinion poll suggests Government popularity with voters is well up on what it was last winter.

Some obvious thoughts. Ind/Other is soft enough, albeit the figures for changes bar it are all around or within MOE. Still, that figure would return even more TDs in that cohort than are currently there. Secondly last weekend isn’t going to happen again, so the increases in the government party figures even if reflecting a real phenomenon may not be lasting. We’ll see.

And is there going to be any impact of the O’Brien/Murphy story?


1. Tomboktu - May 31, 2015

“For the Irish Left the latest round of polls should make sobering reading.

To understand why they are so depressing you have to look at the trends which have emerged in the polls during recent months. The water charges struggle has been the largest social movement in Irish history, beginning on a small scale in the summer of 2014 and progressing to mass mobilisations in the Autumn. The first Right2Water national demonstration in Dublin on October 11th drew over 100,000 people to the city, while the second on November 1st mobilised in excess of 200,000 across the state.”



2. Tawdy - May 31, 2015

Would it be enough to fool this quango of a government in the direction of a general election?


3. Nessa Childers MEP (@NChildersMEP) - May 31, 2015

I’ll say it again: Labour will get between 10 and 15 seats. On a very good day possibly more. (Transfers from FG) That will be portrayed as a “win”. But almost all extra seats from 2011 will be lost. There future as a Party will depend on whether they go into government after. FG may, on the other hand, may gain seats from Labour. There will be an election in Autumn if the polls start wobbling. Independents are falling in the polls. But may go back up cos of Murphy and redacted. But in the end economics will be the issue. Expect a giveaway budget for 2016 and 17. But not subsequent.


4. Paddy Healy - June 7, 2015


Why the huge Discrepency in “Undecideds” between RED C and All other Polling Companies? The Discrepancy is more than 3 times the statistical Margin of Error on polls Why? Analysis wp.me/pKzXa-jh

Red C SBP JUNE 7 FG 25 Others 18 SF 19 FF17 LP 7 Undecided 14 MoE 3.2%

Ipsos/Mrbi 18/5 FG 22 Others 19 SF 17 FF 15 LP 6 Undecided 21 MoE +or-2.8%

B&A 17/5 FG 19 Others 23 SF 17 FF 12 LP 5 Undecided 25 MoE +or -3.2%

MB Feb 15 ,FG18, Others 17, SF 19 FF14 Lab 4, Undecided 29

Red C Feb 22 Fg 21 Others 26 Sf 19 FF 15 Lab 5 Undecided 14

Red C Mar 29 FG23 Others 24 SF 16 FF15 Lab 8 Undecided 14

Ipsos/MRBI Mar 25 FG 18, Others 22, SF 18 FF 13, Lab 5, Undecided 24

B&A Mar 16 Fg 19 Others 19, SF19 FF 14, Lab 5, Undecided 24

Millward Brown April 4 FG 20 Others16, SF 19 FF 15 ,Lab 7, Undecided 20


Red C (3polls) Average Undecided 14%

All other Polling Companies (6 polls) Average undecided 25%

Margin of error on Polls is typically c 3%

RED C must be doing something quite different in determining “undecideds” than all other polling companies

Red C site: Vote intention results are based on those who will actually go and vote, using a 10 point scale, where 1 is not at all likely and 10 is very likely, those rating 4 to 10 are included as being those who will actually go and vote

Does this mean that only those rating 4 to 10 are included in “core vote”.

After a core vote is established in Red C polls a likelihood to vote filter is applied subsequently!


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