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Projections on foot of the latest SBP/RedC poll June 1, 2015

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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…Adrian Kavanagh has them. 

The headline figures were:

Fine Gael 28% (up 3%), Independents and Others 22% (down 4%), Sinn Fein 21% (down 1%), Fianna Fail 19% (NC), Labour Party 10% (up 2%).

Which

Fianna Fail 34, Fine Gael 52, Sinn Fein 32, Labour Party 12, Independents and Others 28. 

Pat Leahy in the SBP pointed out the inconvenient truth that Fine Gael and Labour are still a long long way from a working majority, with 64 between them and needing in the next Dáil to get 80 or more. Actually more. That’s a good 16 to 20 extra to have a whisper of state power.

Can it be done? Well sure, anything can be done, but one has to wonder. Not that anyone else is int he running either. Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin, both level pegging and unable to deliver more than 66. Ind and Others in something of a decline – that’s a most telling aspect of the poll, and indeed the polls across the last year or so, from implausible heights of as much as 30% they’ve lost considerable support. Of course even on 22% they’d still do remarkably well, but not as well as some might have expected.

That said it will be useful to see if there’s any increase in those figures should the Denis O’Brien/Catherine Murphy/Parliamentary Privilege controversy roll on in any substantial way, as it almost certainly will. One of the complaints about Independents and Others has long been that they play no useful role in this parliamentary democracy, but surely the past four years points to precisely the opposite given the centrality of that cohort, or some of that cohort, to matters of scrutiny?

Comments»

1. NollaigO - June 1, 2015

How does 19% for FF map to 34 seats?!

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WorldbyStorm - June 1, 2015

I think it’s down to projected transfers, etc. Also they get a seat boost as against SF even though they’re on lower.

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irishelectionliterature - June 2, 2015

The boundary changes favour FF. On 2011 levels of support they would have got seats in a number of the new constituencies such as Tipp, Sligo Leitrim, Dublin Fingal and Kerry. In 2011 they also had to field two outgoing TDs in certain places when a single candidate would probably have won them a seat.
There are a few of the FF projected gains that look vulnerable enough.
Kavanaghs projections of SF omit a few places where I think they will win seats and over plays them in others. I cant see SF winning 3 seats in Donegal or 2 in my own Dublin South West. That said I’d give them a good chance of seats in Dublin West and Galway West where Kavanagh doesn’t have them down to win. There is an added factor with SF in that it probably is the most powerful ‘brand’ at the minute. So it will take unexpected seats due to the ‘brand’ as opposed to the candidate.

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Liberius - June 3, 2015

From the article linked to above on AK’s blog:

The constituency level analysis involves the assigning seat levels to different parties and political groupings on the basis of constituency support estimates and simply using a d’Hondt method to determine which party wins the seats, while also taking account of the factors of vote transfers and vote splitting/management (based on vote transfer/management patterns observed in the February 2011 election).

Personally I’m not much taken on using d’hondt for this as it really isn’t a good way of replicating the actual method of allocating seats, it’s far too friendly to parties with large amounts of votes in the constituencies and I don’t think Adrian Kavanagh’s ‘I reckon’ method of levelling off the worst aberrations is particularly sound, it’s just too arbitrary.

To give an example on why D’hondt is problematic, using the last GE’s results I’ve calculated that D’hondt would have allocated 2 seats to FG, 1 seat to Labour and 1 to Fianna Fail with the socialist party missing out; that wasn’t what happened.

For the interested the distribution is as follows:

FG 1st 15488
Labour 2nd: 13014
FG 3rd: 7744
FF 4th: 7634

SP 5th: 7513

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Liberius - June 3, 2015

Sorry I’ve omitted that I used Dublin North for that.

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2. Joe - June 1, 2015

Met a long-time Bohs fan this morning. He gave the credit for the Corpo rescue of Bohs to Joe Costello. Costello couldn’t save his seat in Dublin Central, could he?

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irishelectionliterature - June 2, 2015

From experience it was the then minister for Sport John O’Donoghue who gave the green light for funds to finish Rovers move to Tallaght. …… I didn’t make me vote FF.

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3. gendjinn - June 1, 2015

Of course the current high court saga is not doing FG/Lab any favours.

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4. An Cathaoirleach - June 2, 2015

Looking at Dublin NW, there is no way the Provos will take a second seat. The final seat will be between John Lyons and Noel Rock, with Rock probably shading it. The redrawing of the constituency adds lots of Glasnevin to the constituency. Shortall, Ellis & Rock on current form.

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5. roddy - June 2, 2015

Alisdair McDonnell used to spout about the “provos” during election contests.Seems to have lost the firebrand image recently.

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6. Liberius - June 3, 2015

Quite late with their ‘report’ are RED C this time, the back end of it is dedicated to analysis of the referendum polling plus some questions on the last page asking voters about what they think will happen following the referendum.

Click to access SBP-May-2015-Poll-Report-GE-and-Same-Sex.pdf

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