Waiting for the election… June 29, 2015
Posted by WorldbyStorm in Irish Politics.trackback
A revealing aside in the SBP at the weekend where it noted that on foot of the most recent polls, with FG support holding steady in the high 20s…
The Sunday Business Post has learned that Fine Gael has been conducting focus groups in recent weeks in which it has tested key election messages, and also the timing of an election.
…
Fine Gael usually conducts focus groups about every six months, but has stepped up election preparations in recent months. The groups were watched live in Washington DC by a firm of political advisers employed by Fine Gael.
It is understood that the groups were asked about their reaction to an early general election, and were largely non-committal. They were also asked about election themes and campaign strategies.
What, one wonders, does non-committal mean? They were neutral about it, or unenthusiastic? Which ever it is is important, but perhaps more important is the idea that FG has been asking this question. Of course it would, wouldn’t it? But given the relative closeness of the election, one way or another, now much less than 9 or so months away…
The Cedar Lounge Revolution 
“non-committal”, does that mean they wouldn’t mind a early election? those American advisors Greenberg Quinlan Rosner who ran the their Marriage Equality referendum focus groups http://www.huffingtonpost.com/kristi-lowe/how-ireland-embraced-marriage-equality_b_7505172.html
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I think you are onto something with the unenthusiastic responses being related to FG as the questioner.
IMO If FG does not call the election in Sept/Oct it means they are highly concerned about the outcome. Thing is, if they don’t call in S/O their prospects will deteriorate further as they run out the clock.
The independent vote is the one I’m most interested in. I have a hypothesis that SF is going to get about half of the indie votes that transfers out of the Indie/GP pool along with about a 1/3 of LAB transfers. If true SF will outperform the Adrian Kavanagh seat predictions, which won’t be good for the stability/longevity of the next coalition govt.
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Very interesting theory you got there re ind transfers, could well be right particularly if people move between those categories in any great number back or forth.
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The caveat I forgot to mention is the transfer drop off problem. Something new in the 31st Dáil by-elections that isn’t seen in the 30th. The CWKK by-election in particular saw 8k out of 66k wanting nothing to do with FG/FF/SF and a further 10k wanting nothing to do with FG/FF/SF. All of which makes predicting the next GE outcome really challenging.
Adrian Kavanagh’s work is great and all but it’s predicated on the previous GE models/trends continuing.
I reckon the final outcome will be something like FG 50, FF & SF 40, IND 25 and LAB 0 – which +- 3 seats on each of those.
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Pat Leahy said on Drivetime today that he thinks the election will be in 2016 http://www.rte.ie/radio/utils/radioplayer/rteradioweb.html#!rii=9%3A10435832%3A0%3A%3A at 1hr
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Which is no harm!
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