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Dublin South West July 31, 2015

Posted by irishelectionliterature in Irish Politics.

A fascinating constituency (aren’t they all!). The current TDs are Paul Murphy (AAA), Sean Crowe (SF), Pat Rabbitte and Eamon Maloney (Lab). Both Labour TD’s are retiring and we also have an extra seat here with the addition of part of Templeogue and Rathfarnham from Dublin South. None of the current Dublin South TDs have moved constituency. So we will have just two sitting TD’s contesting.
The line up so far is Colm Brophy and Anne-Marie Dermody for Fine Gael, John Lahart of Fianna Fail, Pamela Kearns and Mick Duff for Labour, Sarah Holland and Sean Crowe of Sinn Fein, Francis Noel Duffy of The Greens, Ronan McMahon of Renua, Katherine Zappone Ind, Deirdre O’Donovan Ind (Ross Alliance), Declan Burke IND and I’d imagine Nicky Coules of PBP will probably run too. There may be some others yet to surface.
I’d expect Sean Crowe and Paul Murphy to get in with one of the Fine Gael candidates. The final two seats could go anyway.
John Lahart of Fianna Fail is popular in Rathfarnham and has a profile after the by-election. His problem may be that Holland, Dermody, Duffy, O’Donovan, Brophy and to an extent McMahon and Kearns are all within a few miles of each other.Still if he stays ahead of Labour and the second FG candidate he could be in with a good chance.
Katherine Zappone is unproven electorally but has a sizeable team and is out canvassing already. Her team would have learnt a lot from the Marriage Equality Campaign. She may well get a good portion of the former Labour vote in the middle class areas , whilst her work in An Cosain will reflect well on her in certain parts of Tallaght. Like most Independents she will also be transfer friendly. Will be a possible destination for former many Labour voters.
Both Rabbitte and Maloney retiring as well as the selection of two candidates would lead me to believe that in a constituency where Labour got 36% in 2011 …. they will struggle here to be in with a chance. They also won’t be getting too many transfers. Amazingly I think both seats are gone.
Deirdre O’Donovan polled well in the Locals and it will be interesting to see if being part of The Independents Alliance will help her much. Again if she gets a decent first preference the lack of party logo beside her name could keep her in the mix.
Ronan McMahon of Renua unlikely to make it unless something happens the Renua brand between now and the Election. He would probably have done better staying ‘Independent’.
Francis Noel Duffy of The Greens won’t win a seat , nor will Declan Burke. Nicky Coules will poll OK but again won’t be in the mix.
A lot will also depend on how the Fine Gael vote is split. Both polled similarly in the Local Elections and Cait Keane didn’t exactly set the world alight in the By-Election. I have an inkling that Dermody will poll better of the two. Brophy will also be sharing the Templeogue area with Ronan McMahon.
Then we have Sarah Holland of Sinn Fein who is the current Mayor of South County Dublin. She will poll well and it will be interesting to see how SInn Fein will split the constituency for vote management. If there is a surge in the SF vote she is in with a chance.
The way I see it panning out is probably 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 AAA, 1 Ind and 1 FF


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