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That poll at the weekend… December 14, 2015

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Got to be honest, at this stage the polls are so similar from whatever source that there’s a real sense of dialing it in in regards to analysis. But – deep breath – I’ll do my best to find something new to find here.

Adrian Kavanagh’s projections on foot of the B&A/ST poll here are interesting:

 Fine Gael 31% (up 5%), Independents and Others 24% (down 2%) – including Green Party 4%, Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 4%, Fianna Fail 19% (down 1%), Sinn Fein 17% (down 4%), Labour Party 8% (up 1%).

Fianna Fail 31, Fine Gael 64, Sinn Fein 24, Labour Party 7, Green Party 3, Independents and Others 24. 

As always, let’s treat this with considerable caution. But let’s also note the trends. Fine Gael inch upwards, something that other polls appear to reflect. Fianna Fáil remains becalmed, hardly more than a percentage point or two above 2011. Sinn Féin is doing okay, but hardly stellar, though in line with RedC/Paddy Power which had the following:

Fine Gael 28% (down 3%), Independents and Others 25% (NC), Fianna Fail 20% (up 1%), Sinn Fein 18% (NC), Labour Party 9% (NC). 

Fianna Fail 31, Fine Gael 54, Sinn Fein 27, Labour Party 9, Independents and Others 37.

Ind/Others are widely at variance with that last poll in terms of seat numbers (37 in RedC/PP – only(!) 24 in B&A).

Labour at or around RedC/PP’s figure.

But what does all this mean? It’s difficult to say because a difference of just 3% for FG makes a difference of 10 seats for that party in outcomes. And intriguingly that is mined, as it were from Ind/Others who consequently see their numbers differ between 37 TDs in the RedC poll and 24 in the most recent one.

That said, consolidation, as noted here many times before, for FG makes sense. This comment here at the weekend from 6to5against sums up my thoughts on that perfectly. But then…but then… are matters fundamentally stable enough to deliver them the high numbers? Probably yes, definitely – perhaps not. The newer parties, Renua and the SDs are simply not making any great impact.

Independents (11%),  the Independent Alliance (2%), Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit (4%), Social Democrats (1%), Green Party (4%), Workers Party (1%) and Renua (1%)

The WP tenaciously hanging on in there is fascinating. But look at how even the Independent Alliance, which has a fair number of TDs already is just about not there. Hardly surprising, they’ve not been doing that much promotion of the alliance, but one would have to wonder whether they’d even return their current crop of TDs on the basis of this. AAA/PBP is doing well, perhaps it should be doing better, but 4% is a solid figure.

What’s most obvious is that with an election surely no more than 12 or so weeks away there’s still no clear path to government. 158 seats in the next Dáil. 80 is the key figure for a bare majority. No one, on these figures is likely to have it, bar unlikely/and/or unwieldy combinations of TDs. There’ll be many hoping that 12 weeks concentrates minds. But with Christmas up next will they?

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1. ivorthorne - December 14, 2015
2. CL - December 14, 2015

“We have outlined in all of our alternative budgets that all of our policies will be delivered within the fiscal space outlined by the Irish Government,” Pearse Doherty told the Sunday Independent.”
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/investors-warned-about-sinn-feins-economic-policies-34282432.html

Tsipras has morphed into Papandreou and now Pearse Doherty is morphing into Howlin, or maybe Noonan. Some alternative.

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makedoanmend - December 14, 2015

Depressing.

On today’s menu! – Any shade of neocapital tripe.

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3. John Goodwillie - December 14, 2015

I have always assumed that half of the lingering 1% for the Workers’ Party are Eamon Gilmore, Eric Byrne etc. voters who have forgotten (or never realised) that their favourites are now in the Labour Party.

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Joe - December 14, 2015

Could be a bit of that. And/or a bit of voters who remember the heady days of the WP of the eighties and are saying I’d vote for that WP if it was around again or still.
When it’s as little as one per cent, it could mean anything. Most likely “I’d vote for the likes of the Workers Party i.e. for some party a good bit to the left of Labour”. So AAA/PbP should take some comfort and some votes from that 1% too.

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4. ringacoltig - December 14, 2015

Of course you couldn’t possibly acknowledge the possibility that the WP is making progress. It’s interesting to look at the breakdown of the Inds / Others vote for Munster in the poll. The WP is at 13% of that grouping in Munster which put it slightly above the AAA.. Now some of this could be from Halligan supporters in Waterford who haven’t realised that he left the WP in 2008 or perhaps some might be Ted Tynan supporters in Cork. Tynan was at 5.8% in a recent AAA poll in Cork North Central. It could represent any number of possibilities of course and at the end of the day it’s only a poll.

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WorldbyStorm - December 14, 2015

It is interesting the geographic spread, Munster primarily. I’d have to think a part of it is indeed Ted Tynan’s sterling work. And that of people in Dublin and Meath.

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5. Jack Jameson - December 14, 2015

The Social Democrats’ actual election showing versus poll ratings beyond their ‘star’ names will be interesting for their future.

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6. eamonncork - December 15, 2015

I wonder if the whole ‘things are back to normal’ narrative might also benefit Fianna Fail with disillusioned members of that party who might have turned to Sinn Fein opting to vote for a return to the two and a half system. I have a feeling that Sinn Fein’s momentum has stalled, I don’t exactly know why, but I think Fianna Fail may benefit from it as may a lot of Independents of whom I suspect there will be about thirty. I may be enormously wrong on this but a few months ago I thought SF would replace FF in second place and basically finish them off. Now it wouldn’t surprise me if Fianna Fail even got twice as many seats as Sinn Fein. I still can’t see Fine Gael topping sixty and if they do it will be at the expense of Labour candidates. The current coalition won’t be coming back.

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irishelectionliterature - December 16, 2015

SF have stalled, the reason I think is that there is little or no prospect of them being in government, which wasn’t the case six months ago.

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7. benmadigan - December 15, 2015

@Eamonn: what effect do you think SF’s new health proposal will have?

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eamonncork - December 15, 2015

I don’t know Ben. I hope it gets the reward it deserves. It’s bold, it’s something new and it certainly gives the lie to anyone who claims they’re just Fianna Fail in disguise. I just hope it gets a fair hearing. I’d love to think it was a game changer but who knows? What do you reckon?

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