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Last pre-election RedC/SBP poll January 30, 2016

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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…the headline on the RTÉ website optimistically, or perhaps not, suggests that:

Gains for Labour and Independents in new poll

But it’s all MOE stuff. Headline figures:

FG 29 – 1%

LP 10 +1%

FF 17 – 2%

SF 19 – NC

IND/OTHERS – 25  +2%

Within that, Independents are on 16%, the Greens and the Anti Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit group are both on 3%, while the Social Democrats are on 2% and Renua is at 1%.

So, will this stuff about LP etc frame the contest ahead? Possibly, and the LP were already making hay (as best they can) rhetorically.

Initial observations. Still no great appetite for the newer parties. FF actually lower than its 2011 GE level. SF doing well, be interesting to see if that carries over on the day or does it slip somewhat. The Greens on 3%? Really? Really? 

But really, the situation demonstrates that the support levels that we’ve seen for quite some time now appear well locked in. Can that last through out the election process? It will be educative to see what happens next.

 

Comments»

1. Alibaba - January 30, 2016

‘Brendan Howlin says the number of seats labour will win will confound critics.’

‘… the number of seats’: So says the master of equivocation.

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WorldbyStorm - January 30, 2016

100% agree. And how about this from JB…

“The Taoiseach and I share a vision for sustainable public finances, for jobs and growth and for a better security,” she said.
“Each party fights its corner. We have a battle of ideas. We negotiate, we compromise. The centre left and the centre right find centre ground and we reach agreed solutions in the best interests of our people.”

Urghhhh

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PaddyM - January 30, 2016

It could be a negative number, I suppose.

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WorldbyStorm - January 30, 2016

heheh… yeah. That hadn’t struck me.

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2. Tomboktu - January 30, 2016

A tad tangential, but BBC Radio 4 is running a 3-part series on opinion polls. Two have been broadcast so far (part 3 is tomorrow):

The focus is Britain, so points discussed may not apply here, or here in the same way.

The blurb for programme 1:

Last year’s general election should have been an easy result to predict. There was a constant stream of opinion polls, many more than in previous campaigns. But they turned out to be highly misleading, suggesting a hung parliament. The actual result was a huge shock to the polling industry. So went wrong with the polls, and why? And how easy will it be to put it right?

In the first part of a series examining the role of opinion polling in British politics, David Cowling looks at the track record of polls in previous elections. He explores why their results matter and whether there were warning signs that should have indicated they were going wrong before last year’s general election.

I don’t know how long they will remain online. Here’s the programme’s web page:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b06z66dl/episodes/player

Liked by 1 person

3. Jack Jameson - January 31, 2016

Did I hear someone at the Labour conference say that 30 seats was possible?!!

Then again, anything at this moment in time is ‘possible’ – even a majority Labour government!

Liked by 1 person

4. CL - January 31, 2016
5. Liberius - February 1, 2016

Click to access SBP-31st-Jan-2016-Poll-Report.pdf

Red C’s report, again same as usual, thin on detail. The core vote is as follows:

FG 24%
SF 18%
FF 15%
IND 15%
AAA-PBP 2%
GP 2%
SD 1%
Undecided 15%

Interesting thing is that the Workers’ party are included in the list, though don’t attract enough support to get more than an asterisk; neither did Renua in the cores.

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