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Projections on foot of RedC/SBP poll January 30, 2016

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.

From Adrian Kavanagh.. 

Fianna Fail 27, Fine Gael 56, Sinn Fein 25, Labour Party 14, Independents and Others 36. 


And from the recently revenant Irish Polling Report, and good to see it back. 

Fianna Fail 29, Fine Gael 56, Sinn Fein 27, Labour Party 17, GP 2, AAA/PBP 2 SDs 2 RENUA 0,  Others 23. 


All usual caveats apply.



1. Tomboktu - January 30, 2016

I’d say SF would not be to thrilled to see FF still be the largest opposition party on election day.


Jack Jameson - January 31, 2016

That goes without saying about FF being ahead of SF but if it works out it’s marginal at 2 seats.

Best bit for me is seeing Irish Polling Report giving Renua a nice round number.


WorldbyStorm - January 31, 2016



Dotski - January 31, 2016


While I also can see some aesthetic beauty in that circle, I’d warn against assuming it will happen..if that 1% is rounded down 1.4% they’d probably hold Creighton seat, also margin of error etc etc…plus I think they’ll poll more than this on day as will get good media coverage.

But yeah…


Liberius - January 31, 2016

Is there any chance you could give us a bit of detail on how you arrive at these figures?


Dotski - January 31, 2016

Pretty much as 2011, will do new post in next few days, main diff is re-jig of base for new constits/parties/defections, plus manual apportioning of prob where I judge last cpl of seats could go either way based on count simulation (also manual) -I had done this pre-2011 but didnt last time as slightly messier (but tends to be slightly more accurate).


Liberius - January 31, 2016

Is it even possibly to re-jig the base figures reliably? Besides, I’m more interesting in what method is used to assign the seats. D’hondt? Sainte-Lague? Largest remainder Droop quota? Hare quota? Hagenbach-bischoff quota? Throwing darts at a dart board?


Jim Monaghan - January 31, 2016

Rotten as they are FF is more transfer friendly than SF.


2. Jim Monaghan - January 31, 2016

Good grief, they are nearly back. Failing that FF and FG are comfortable. What a FG/FF government and time for Labour to do a Green type recovery in opposition.


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