jump to navigation

Election 2016 – Day Two of the Count – Open Thread February 28, 2016

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
trackback

And so it continues. And it looks like it’s going to be a very very long day. So far not bad for the left, and some potential gains in the next twenty four hours still on the cards – but it still is disheartening to see how FF have come back. Can’t see a threat to M. Martin’s leadership any time soon. One E. Kenny though…

One thing that is very clear is that an enormous amount of money was wasted on pre-election and campaign polling by everyone. Sure, everything was hedged in caveats – and yet those caveats weren’t sufficient. So much action in Irish politics, in this state at least, takes place in the individual constituencies. Lucinda Creighton gone. A GP, perhaps two, TDs in the Dáil. And the limitations of national polling – the SDs so far only returning the TDs they had (bet they’re sorry they didn’t establish themselves earlier – pre local elections would have been perfect). AAA-PBP doing well, maybe an extra two seats in contention. All the Independents4Change people reelected. Maureen O’Sullivan making it back. Labour shattered but not gone. SF consolidating in a way that on any other day would be remarkable but somehow in the context of all else doesn’t quite seem it.

Last time we saw a structural shift – this time – perhaps not so much, other than the partial rehabilitation of FF. But that’s a pretty big shift.

And more to come.

Comments»

1. Gewerkschaftler - February 28, 2016

Apologies about raising people’s hopes re Alan Kelly yesterday – one shouldn’t expect fact-checking from the Irish Times.

Liked by 2 people

2. Michael Carley - February 28, 2016

Listening to the RTE radio feed (O’Broin is impressive) and Noel Dempsey talking about a D’Hondt system for selecting ministers, a connected thought occurred to me. Does it make a difference that Michael D. is in the Aras?

Like

Jolly Red Giant - February 28, 2016

O’Broin is a media performer – that’s his forte – you will see him all the time on TV from now on.

Like

Michael Carley - February 28, 2016

Paul Murphy is on now and he is no slouch as a media performer. I hadn’t heard him before and he comes across very well.

Like

3. Jolly Red Giant - February 28, 2016

SF will make gains – but not as many as they should have.

The reality is that FF stole SF’s clothes in the election – they took over slogans like ‘for a fairer recovery’.

SF refused to back a boycott of water charges claimed that the only way to abolish water charges was by having SF in government – FF then proposed to also get rid of water charges ‘delaying their nitro diction until the network is fixed’. SF stated that they would not refund people who had paid water charges – FF happily did the same.

SF banged on about a variety of issues and FF galloped up the inside on every issue yanking the shirt off SF’s as they went past.

In the end many working class people simply decided to back the bigger party that was pitching a similar message.

Like

gendjinn - February 28, 2016

Will they remember this when FF breaks it in an FF/FG govt?

Liked by 1 person

4. fergal - February 28, 2016

JRG- pity Prendiville didn’t get in- next time…maybe not too log away
But the sf ff thing can also work the other way.
Sf promised to keep the usc ff didn’t
sf said they would get rid of supreme court non jury, ff didn’t
sf said they would put a third rate of tax on higher income ff didn’t

Like

Jolly Red Giant - February 28, 2016

I think the USC thing would have been an issue – the SCC and the third tax rate, naw – few SF voters earning over €100K

Like

Dekkard - February 28, 2016

Apart from Slab obviously .Wha wha

Like

5. fergal - February 28, 2016

Funny how on the radio when people are asked about ff-fg there is no mention of the dark forces beyond. No mention of our friends in the eu, no mention of our old friends in the imf, no mention of the international financial markets, no mention of foreign direct investment, no mention of the ratings agencies.
Not so long ago these forces dicated our politicians’ decision- making process.

Like

6. Michael Carley - February 28, 2016

RTE saying Mick Barry is a hundred odd votes short and GP transfers should put him in.

Liked by 1 person

7. Jack Jameson - February 28, 2016

Green Party leader Eamon Ryan on RTÉ proposing talks between left of centre parties – including SF, Left Independents and maybe Labour and even FF if they could agree basis.

Paul Murphy rules out FF, of course.

People’s thoughts on the general idea (with/without FF)?

*Pearse Doherty just on ruling out propping up FG or FF Govt.

Like

rockroots - February 28, 2016

Eamon Ryan has really learned nothing at all from 2011, has he?

Interesting parallels being made between the challenge of the two right parties co-habiting and of the various left groups cooperating. Very different details and contexts of course, and it would be sheer poison for the radical left to link up with FF or Labour.

Like

fergal - February 28, 2016

Eamon Ryan has really learned nothing at all from 2011, has he?Rockroots it looks like an awful lot of people haven’t either- ff doubling its seats and then some, admittedly from a low base.right wing indos cleaning up in various constituencies etc

Like

8. WorldbyStorm - February 28, 2016

Two GP TDs. That I did not see.

Like

Michael Carley - February 28, 2016

Second most stupid voters in the country after whoever gave Lowry a quota.

Like

Ivorthorne - February 28, 2016

Just heard Ryan on RTE Radio 1. He actually sounds incredibly naive. Perhaps Green voters are not stupid and merely incredibly naive as well.

Like

WorldbyStorm - February 28, 2016

I have to be honest, I think you’re onto something there. Some genuinely decent people involved, and overall a political approach which doesn’t quite get the reality of political activity and/or are somewhat insulated from those realities.

Liked by 1 person

WorldbyStorm - February 28, 2016

Just on the GP their revival is actually much more remarkable than that of FF.

Liked by 1 person

Michael Carley - February 28, 2016

In fairness to some Greens, I’m not sure that’s true: Trevor Sargent had the integrity to step down as leader in 2007 after the FF deal was made.

Like

Liberius - February 28, 2016

I’m not so sure it is remarkable, Ryan has been bigged up a lot over the last five years and did reasonably well in the euros, while Catherine Martin’s job was made easier by the weakness of both Labour and Sinn Fein in that Dublin Rathdown constituency. It’s also not surprising that they’ve got nobody anywhere else as the demography of those constituencies aren’t like the rest of the country, or even the rest of Dublin.

Like

WorldbyStorm - February 28, 2016

I don’t disagree in so far as I think they – and I said this earlier – represent a very polite form of dissent for those who are disenchanted but would Neverland vote left as such, I guess though I didn’t expect that in those constituencies dissent would go to them sooner than say Renua or Ross wouldn’t have swept it all up leaving the rest to FG or FF

Like

CMK - February 28, 2016

Two highly affluent, electorally volatile constituencies. That’s about the limit for the Greens in terms of Dáil representation. Both could be turfed out next time round, whether that’s in 8 months, 18 months or 5 years. Ryan has not served in a Dáil where the socialist Left were a force. They will be in this Dáil. He might be grateful to the electorate if they kick him out next time. As someone who not only participated in a regime of utterly disastrous policy decisions, which quite literally ruined the lives of hundreds of thousands, and who defended those decisions doggedly since 2011, he’s in for a rough ride. His lack of political self awareness will mean he’s guaranteed a battering from the AAA-PBP bloc in the Dáil pretty soon. He won’t like that and I doubt he will appreciate getting grief from Gino Kenny or Ruth Coppinger over his role in the 2007-2011 coalition. But it will be amusing to see how he fares in a Dáil where there are 9 real Left TDs who’ll take no crap from him.

Like

9. Jolly Red Giant - February 28, 2016

You have to love the way that Dobson twisted the comments by Paul Murphy to get a dig in and allow Adams to call the AAA ‘sectarian’.

Dobson is actually an idiot – because he didn’t do it consciously – he just is not capable of understanding what are quite clear clarifications on a political position. He has also repeatedly called the election counts wrong because he forgets that surpluses have to be distributed.

Like

10. Enda - February 28, 2016

Yeh, if I had a quid for all the times the “experts” on RTE were saying Adams was a possible disadvantage to the SF vote I’d be up a tenner anyway. Compared to how many times the same question was put out there re Kenny and FG. I think Irishelectionliterature predicted C Martin wd get in

Like

11. Michael Carley - February 28, 2016

Barry Desmond is edging towards hysteria.

Like

12. rockroots - February 28, 2016

Frank Kelly’s observations as accurate today as 30-odd years ago, looking at some of the results. RIP.

Like

WorldbyStorm - February 28, 2016

Cool, by the by Brendan Young has done very well in Kildare North – kudos to him and all the peoplev working there with him.

Like

13. Jolly Red Giant - February 28, 2016

That gobsh*te Kelly is going to scrape in for the last seat

Like

14. Michael Carley - February 28, 2016

I’m not sure Clare Daly has done herself any favours saying AAA-PBP hasn’t really advanced because they were people who were there already.

Like

Ed - February 28, 2016

Where did she say that? Doesn’t make a lot of sense, new seats (compared to 2011) in Dublin South West, Mid-West and maybe South Central, plus one in Cork, and a good showing in Limerick. Now if she’d said something about what if the ULA had held together, with Daly, Collins and (hopefully) Healy elected on the same slate as the others, that’d be more to the point.

Like

Jolly Red Giant - February 28, 2016

If she actually was interested in building the ULA rather than undermining it at every turn she might have a basis to make that claim as well.

Like

15. Jolly Red Giant - February 28, 2016

Clare Daly is wrong – the AAA had 3 seats – only one seat won at the last election – Joe Higgins – who retired. The other two seats were by-election wins – one of them in DW where the AAA already had a seat.

None of the AAA TDs elected yesterday/today were elected in 2011.

For the first time the AAA has a seat outside Dublin and came within a couple of hundred votes of winning in Limerick.

PBP had one seat going into the election and have gained 2 (pending a recount) and are fighting for a seat in DBN.

In all honesty Clare Daly should look at Fingal – this constituency was wide open for two left TDs and Clare Daly engaged in sectarian antics to prevent it happening (and to try and prevent AAA/PBP getting 7 seats).

Like

Michael Carley - February 28, 2016

In fairness to Daly, she didn’t say AAA-PBP had no new seats, but that the seats were won by people who had been slogging away for years so they don’t represent much of a breakthrough. She’s wrong: what is odd is that she said it.

Like

Liberius - February 28, 2016

It’s petty, like successful candidates appear out of nowhere in our personality inflected political system. It’s also more of a breakthrough than her I4C lot who’ve added how many to their ranks?

Like

Jolly Red Giant - February 28, 2016

And Wallace was down in the dumps yesterday convinced he was beaten

Like

16. Aonrud ⚘ - February 28, 2016

I’m not sure what this tells us. Does RTÉ want us to vote Independent Alliance to keep Google’s taxes low?

Liked by 2 people

17. fergal - February 28, 2016

Healy back in in Tipp- as is ..Kelly!

Like

18. Jack Jameson - February 28, 2016

Noel Grealish – former Deputy Leader of the Progressive Democrats – elected in Galway West as Independent.

Like

WorldbyStorm - February 28, 2016

Again

Like

19. fergal - February 28, 2016

John Lyons pbp on 6,400 in Dublin Bay North- in with a chance- Labour’s intellectual colossus O Riordain also hanging in-Sf’s second candidate should push Denis Mitchell into a seat-

Like

RosencrantzisDead - February 28, 2016

If you had told me on Thursday that AAA-PbP would be looking at seven seats, I would have called you a Pollyanna.

Well done to them and all the other left candidates. Without a doubt there has been growth here as well as a proven ability to retain seats and vote-share.

Liked by 1 person

EWI - February 28, 2016

If they get the seven, and Labour get only six, do AAA-PBP get to call the ILP a ‘fringe’ party?

Liked by 3 people

Jolly Red Giant - February 28, 2016

you betcha

Like

John Cunningham - February 28, 2016

Ex-TD Derek Nolan doesn’t want Labour to respond to its humiliation by becoming a ‘Trotskyite’ party http://www.advertiser.ie/galway/article/83137/im-not-in-favour-of-labour-becoming-a-trotskyite-party

Like

EWI - February 28, 2016

Regrettably, anti-trade union Labour T.D. Seán Sherlock has survived.

Like

Michael Carley - February 28, 2016

They should have taken the chance to become a Trotskyite party when we gave them the chance: nobody likes Johnny-come-latelies.

Like

Pasionario - February 28, 2016

I think Nash might survive in Louth now. Kelly was elected on FG transfers over the FG running mate (maybe AK47 is the more authentically right-wing voice?).

In so far as Labour still has a left, it’s Nash. Sherlock, Kelly and he will be fighting for the “soul” of their groupuscule. I wonder will Kelly end up in FG or FF if he loses out.

Looking good for Lyons in DBN on the back of transfers from running mate. That’s how you win elections.

Like

Admin - February 29, 2016

One of the really good things about this election is surely the thrashing that Labour took. Pity that evil anti-working class wretch Burton managed to hold her seat, but the organisation must be in tatters.

In the past when the do the dirty in government a force on their left grows, but they’ve never been overtaken. This time they have declined to a point where they will struggle to rebuild, although I wonder whether the SDers will merge with them and turn out to have been a way of boosting the LP electorally.

Funny that the Trotskyists, if we include Clare Daly and Joan Collins, have more seats than Labour.

The ideal, as I’ve said before, is that FG/FF are forced together by the rise of the left. Who knows, if the left rises significantly further they may even be forced into a party merger.

But I think the election also points up a certain petty sectarianism on the part of SP and SWP. Instead of putting their own organisational interests first – and their alliance doesn’t change that – a serious ULA could deal a fatal blow to Labour and open up things for a serious left of real size and impact, well beyond their still very small groups.

Phil

Like

Jolly Red Giant - February 28, 2016

Rosen – the AAA came within 277 of winning in Limerick when everyone outside of the AAA were dismissing any chance of the AAA ever being in the mix.

Like

RosencrantzisDead - February 28, 2016

I know! Great result! Well done to Prendiville and yourself, JRG.

Like

Ivorthorne - February 29, 2016

+1

Hope you’re preparing for the election we’re bound to see in the next 18 months or so!

Like

20. fergal - February 28, 2016

Denise Mitchell

Like

21. Ivorthorne - February 28, 2016

6 or 7 seats for AAA-PBP?

Like

Jolly Red Giant - February 28, 2016

5 at the moment

Brid Smith won in DSC but now a recount – that would be 6

John Lyons with a ‘chance’ in DBN – that would be 7

Like

Alibaba - February 28, 2016

Is a recount different from a recheck? Does a recount mean that candidates already ‘elected’ could have their votes changed, should the numbers come out differently? Or does this recount only apply to those candidates in contention? What about adjudication of the 694 spoiled votes too?

Like

Jolly Red Giant - February 28, 2016

Yes – a recount is basically the same as starting from scratch.

The bundles will be kept together but every vote will be scrutinised.

Like

gendjinn - February 28, 2016

What is going on in DBN wrt the fourth count?

Like

Ivorthorne - February 28, 2016

I think it could make a rather significant difference if AAAPBP get to 7. Fingers crossed here.

Like

22. gendjinn - February 28, 2016

Polling’s only as good as your voter turnout model. It’s been the source of most of the error in the US Democratic primary polls.

The personal tax cuts issue FG raised in the last week seemed to backfire. Although FG & LAB voters seemed to help each other out a lot with transfers and even 1st prefs. 5 of the seats I thought would break SF/FF last night went LAB/FG, so far.

Like

23. gendjinn - February 28, 2016

There has been an unending stream of LAB/FG TDs gurning on with extreme self-satisfaction that they are martyrs for taking the hard necessary decisions to save the country. Wrapping themselves in the armour of dismissing the electorate as ungrateful, shortsighted in their rejection of them at the ballot box.
If anything that narrative needs to be squashed. FG/LAB did what they said they wouldn’t do in the 2011 campaign. End of. Had the electorate wanted what they did they could have voted FF.

Like

24. fergal - February 28, 2016

rte are giving the last two seats in Louth to FG and not Nash- here’s what they were saying at 4.30 – Barring any major upset, it is expected that Nash will be eliminated and the two remaining seats being filled by the two FG candidates, Fergus O’Dowd and Peter Fitzpatrick.
What has chnaged?

Like

25. Jolly Red Giant - February 28, 2016

Apparently Jack Chambers is trending on twitter after Ruth Coppinger tore him a new one over the 8th amendment on RTE.

Like

26. fergal - February 28, 2016

Nash may get in on Munster’s surplus in Louth? Both from Drogheda?

Like

Jolly Red Giant - February 28, 2016

The surplus will come from the Weldon bundle – unlikely to be any different than Weldon’s elimination.

Like

WorldbyStorm - February 28, 2016

It’s fascinating how the local functions in these contests (Tom Fleming realised at the last minute how screwed he could be!). Could be.

Like

ThalmannBrigadier - February 28, 2016

Nash gone. Hopefully Aodhain gets the bullet in DBN next.

Like

27. Jolly Red Giant - February 28, 2016

looks like Pringle will lose to SF in Donegal.

Like

rockroots - February 28, 2016

I have a lot of time for MacLochlainn, it’s a shame it’s at Pringle’s expense though. I look forward to O’Broin in the Dail too.

Like

ThalmannBrigadier - February 28, 2016

All depends on the transfers from a pro-life candidate.

The word “recount” has been mentioned again.

Like

WorldbyStorm - February 28, 2016

Yeah, Pringle and MacLochlainn are both pretty good.

Like

28. RosencrantzisDead - February 28, 2016

Alan Dukes has just proposed that the magic number of TDs needed to form a group should be revisited in the next Dail. This is in response to Labour possibly losing their speaking rights.

Like

eamonncork - February 28, 2016

Surely there must be a way by which speaking rights privileges could be tied to the years the party has spent in the Dail and by their history of displaying a responsible attitude to government. This would mean you’d be able to facilitate Labour while still excluding the AAA-PBP.

Liked by 1 person

RosencrantzisDead - February 28, 2016

In the spirit of the year that is in it, maybe they could require all TDs to take some kind of oath to fiscal responsibility and to honour the letter and spirit of the Troika edicts. Sure, isn’t this what governing is all about.

Like

WorldbyStorm - February 28, 2016

What a genuinely laughable crew Dukes represents. Everything it out until it affects their pals.

Like

Gewerkschaftler - February 28, 2016

…some kind of oath to fiscal responsibility and to honour the letter and spirit of the Troika edicts

… is what exactly Schäuble demands and that’s what Schäuble gets. Otherwise he sends in the ECB.

Actually he and Wiedmann (the monetarist true-believer at the Bundesbank) are getting worried about possible insubordination and are pushing the idea of a European Finance ministry where all national budgets would have to be formally approved.

Like

29. fergal - February 28, 2016

Funny how the rules can change when it doesn’t suit the established parties. Maybe Alan Kelly ould become the new Ceann Comhairle even.
Sad to hear about Pringle- also think that MacLochlainn is well above the average TD in Dail Eireann

Liked by 1 person

30. Ivorthorne - February 28, 2016

How many of the Independents and small party members who have been elected would you count as being of the Left?

Like

WorldbyStorm - February 28, 2016

Wow, that’s a great question. Is it a case of left and left ish and soft left and…

Like

Ivorthorne - February 28, 2016

I would usually define it widely and say we should take anybody who self identifies as left at their word, but this election that would include the likes of FF and Labour who both have a strong record of right wing policies.

You have the likes of Catherine Murphy in the SDs with a history in DL and the WP who resigned from Labour over the austerity policies. Then you have Donnelly who while claiming to want a Nordic model does not seem very “left”.

There’s Daly and Collins who have good left credentials but they associate with Wallace who does not seem to be particularly leftish but seems to be on the same page as left wing people a lot of the time.

You’ve got Séamus Healy. Pringle (if he makes it). Lots of people who have been called left at some point or other . . .

Like

Jolly Red Giant - February 28, 2016

Murphy resigned from the LP because Stagg shafted her for a run at the Dail as his running mate.

Like

Tomboktu - February 28, 2016

Are you sure Murphy resigned from Labour over austerity policies? I thought it was because Stagg reneged on the deal that would see her running alongside him.

Like

WorldbyStorm - February 28, 2016

Pringle is back in contention in Donegal BTW. Pringle is a good leftist in my book. Well left of Labour. Tommy Broughan is left of the LP too (and did get out over austerity). Healy too. Connolly incoming Ind may be good, but did she wobble over nonpayment of water or LPT? Can’t recall.

SDs. I like CM – very hard worker, but a very unhomogenous crew in general.

Like

Ivorthorne - February 28, 2016

You’re right. My memory is on the fritz apparently.

Like

droq - February 28, 2016

McGrath in the fight in Dublin bay north is another that IDs as being on the left, incidentally, though obviously he’s open about his willingness to work with the right.

Like

eamonncork - February 28, 2016

Saw an interesting comment on Twitter. Someone wondering if the Independent Alliance tag actually did anyone any good. Perhaps McGrath unexpectedly lost votes in DBN because he associated himself with Ross. Ross did well out of it by portraying himself as almost a party leader I suppose.

Like

CMK - February 28, 2016

Emtering into a formal political relationship with hard Right Thatcherite’s like Ross and Kevin Callan nullifies any claim to stand on the Left, I think.

Like

WorldbyStorm - February 28, 2016

Yeah, McGrath also likes to place himself in the Gregory tradition. Some would find that unlikely.

Like

CMK - February 29, 2016

He always struck me as a charlatan and definitely not in the same league as Gregory.

Like

WorldbyStorm - February 29, 2016

There’s a line I read where someone said he never saw a microphone he didn’t like the look of.

Like

6to5against - February 28, 2016

I suppose that the key thing is how many would support a left led government if it took shape in the next dail. In that I would include SF – despite the honourable concerns that many have.

If there is to be change, the left will have to become a broad church – and accepting support from those who might have a shameful history is very different from supporting those same TDs in a right wing government.

So a key question is about the Labour Party. Are there any in there – however weak willed – that might break left if they saw that was the way the wind was blowing. (That’s a genuine question btw.) I wonder about Brendan Ryan, for example. He has stood over some dreadful stuff in the last 5 years, but I dont know if he harbours much animosity for the real left.

And what about the socdems. I’m not a fan of Donnelly, but…

If we define the left as broadly as possible, how strong is it tonight?

Like

WorldbyStorm - February 28, 2016

I think SOS put it well this evening IIRC, not massively more so than it was previously. Some consolidation on the further left but given the crises of the past six or seven years one might expect more, no? The resurgence of FF however muted is problematic in the extreme.

Like

WorldbyStorm - February 28, 2016

Just on your point of keeping it broad. I think, and others may differ, that coalition with FF and FG and the LP (unless the latter shift their position significantly) is the bottom line in terms of further movement.

Like

Ivorthorne - February 28, 2016

I spoke to my parents who voted FF. They’d voted FG last time. It was not so much because they liked FF but because they wanted to stop FG. That was the inverse of what they did last time. Enda Kenny’s attitude to people who claimed that the recovery had not reach them is what really turned them against FG.

Could they have voted for SF? Yes, but they didn’t trust them. I can’t blame them for that. I’d vote SF but not because I fully trust them. The legacy of the troubles will follow SF around – not least because the media will not let anybody forget it. Nobody trusts FF or FG but when they lie to you, it doesn’t usually involve murders etc.

They gave other preferences to Independents. Only FF and one independent canvassed them. That Independent got their highest preference amongst the Independents.

If I were to take a lesson from this, it would be that FF will continue to get votes so long as there are people out there who dislike FG and who have no trusted alternative with a local presence.

Liked by 2 people

CMK - February 29, 2016

I think the staying power of FG, FF and their various gene pool Independents is exaggerated but nonetheless is still a factor.

Speculating, I think there are a couple of pertinent points:

– as public services degenerate that clientelist relationship matters more and more to voters. In a context where state bureaucracies are under implicit and explicit instructions to make life as difficult as possible for those accessing services, ‘pull’ could mean the difference between getting that medical card or not.

– it’s clear that parts of rural Ireland and small provincial towns and villages are sliding backwards at a rate of noughts and to the dismay of many of the people living there. The hope that a local FF-er or FG-er gets into the Dáil who might be able to direct some investment your way can be persuasive.

– Left parties are engaged in a different project. People under extreme pressure are not probably not going to be responsive to calls to get active and to change the system. I canvassed two homes where the families had children with intellectual disabilities and where both sets of parents were terrified at the ongoing integration of services into the HSE and what it means for their children. The ‘bigger picture’ is hard to focus on when you’re under such pressure. Establishment politicians are ruthless in claiming to be able to help people in these circumstances, while then voting through the small cuts which cumulatively decimate the quality of life for many.

Also, cynicism contributed to the fall in turnout.

It will be interesting to see how the new Dàil deals with the gigantic problem of the Fiscal Treaty implementation.

Liked by 1 person

WorldbyStorm - February 29, 2016

Yes a lot in what you say there CMK

Like

Ivorthorne - February 29, 2016

Good points CMK.

Strangely, I think the one that I’ve come across the least is the idea of a TD re-directing funding to an area. Only where a Minsiter is involved does this seem to become an expectation in my experience. When it’s a TD, it’s more a case of an expectation that they’ll fix the bloody road (which people laugh at but if you’re driving on some curse filled with potholes and it’s costing you a few hundred every year, it does actually make a significant difference) sometime before the next election.

It should also be noted that these towns also see a lot of migration. Their age profiles tend to be older and the gains that the left makes tends to be among younger people.

Like

Ivorthorne - February 29, 2016

Just another thought, if the Left wants to expand outside of urban areas, it needs to stop waiting for the rest of the country to come to it and start going to it.

For years, I voted for left candidates back home when I knew would probably never be elected. I don’t think I’ve ever met any of them. I’ve met almost all of the FF & FG candidates over the years. FF and FG know the value of actually asking somebody for a vote face to face. Either left candidates do not fully appreciate this or they just do not have the resources to canvaas widely.

Like

WorldbyStorm - February 29, 2016

Yeah crucial point. In fairness smaller organisations bug that’s precisely why there has to be if anything a greater engagement. The other thing is that to riff on CMKs point re people being too weighed down to be activist most people don’t want for many good reasons to be activist at all outside a narrow range of activities, life’s just too busy etc for them. So that demands people engage from the other side – a push rather than pull effect.

Like

CMK - February 29, 2016

Another factor is local media. National media is important but how local media work matters. Local media can exclude a Left candidate deliberately.

Also, geography. A Left party with ten committed activists and a dozen or two supporters can make a good fist of things in a Dublin or Cork city constituency. It’s a harder jobs in Longford-Westmeath or Cork South West.

There are grounds for optimism. AAA’s Ciara Leonardi Roche scored 1999 first preferences in Cork East. A constituency where CLR stalwart eamonncork once lived and where the voting choice for decades until very recently was FF or FG.

As a complete and utter b*ll*x once used as a campaign slogan: a lot done, more to do.

Like

31. Gewerkschaftler - February 28, 2016

We’re just about done aren’t we? FG will have about 5-8 seats more than FF, SF 25 ish.

The remaining question is whether AAA/PBP or Labour get 7 seats.

Some kind of more or less stable FG/FF arrangement.

The length of time to form the government is irrelevant so long as the caretaker technocrats accept the Troika anti-democratic TINA ground-rules. In fact from the latter’s point of view it’s positively a good thing because there’s no new government spending. See Spain, see Belgium.

Like

32. Jolly Red Giant - February 28, 2016

O’Riordain is now 950 behind SF and
only 200 ahead of AAA/PBP,
400 ahead of McGrath,
500 ahead of Broughan,
1000 ahead of Power

with FF now eliminated most will go to elect Haughey and then SD with 4500

Where will O’Riordain get transfers to stay ahead of the others to hang on for the last seat.

Like

33. eamonncork - February 28, 2016

A total recount in Longford-Westmeath apparently. Wouldn’t that just cheer you up if you’d been at it since Saturday morning.
Who do you fancy for the last four there? Haughey, Mitchell, O’Riordain, Lyons?

Like

Jolly Red Giant - February 28, 2016

I have a sneaky feeling that it will be either

1FG 1FF 1SF 1AAA/PBP and McGrath or Power

or

1FG 1FF 1SF Broughan and McGrath or Power

I can’t see O’Riordain holding everyone off – he is not far enough ahead. It is possible the Shinner could get caught by 3 of the others – if Lyons goes out she is safe.

Like

34. Ivorthorne - February 28, 2016

Thsi is pretty good:

Liked by 1 person

35. CL - February 28, 2016

Pringle edges MacLochlainn in Donegal

Like

36. roddy - February 29, 2016

Ivor,both FF and FG members were up to their neck in killing at one time but it was’nt being threw up to them decades later.

Like

Ivorthorne - February 29, 2016

Yes, SF are being treated differently. We have people who will come out and celebrate 1916, Dev and Collins but who will also act as though the IRA doing the same thing, with the same tactics in the North in similar circumstances was a terrible thing.

SF’s problem isn’t so much the bombings etc. but cases like those of Gerry McCabe, Slab Murphy, Jean McConville and Maria Cahill. It’s going to be the inability of Adams to condemn the actions of the IRA and IRA members in these circumstances and his inability to even admit he was in the IRA, that means people will not trust him.

I think Adams, of any party leader operating today, has had the most positive impact on the country, but the truth is that people know he isn’t always honest and open with them (even when there might be good reasons for that) about matters of life and death and personal tragedies. As long as he is leader, it will be easy for the likes of Kenny, Martin and their allies in the press to make people suspicious of SF.

The next big jump for SF will probably have to involve a new leader. Each year, their vote grows and each election, things improve when it comes to transfers, but it’s not enough to achieve their ultimate goal in the South.

Like

yourcousin - February 29, 2016

Ivorthorne,
I guess I need clarification here as the historical instances you mention seem to a very wide net. I’m pretty sure Adams has gone record condemning most of the acts mentioned above. Whether that has a sincere ring to it… I would argue that the peace process was the way of stopping those kind of things. For which Grizzly can claim a good share of the credit. Now that fact does not negate the things that took place or his role in the Troubles writ large. But I guess I fail to see how admitting being in the IRA would accomplish anything. He never distanced himself from the IRA even when they did botch things up. I can make no clearer argument than his helping to carry the casket of the Shankhill bomber. Here was a moment that the whole world was recoiling at a repugnant act and where Grizzly was trying to get a seat at the big boys table and where he could have easily distanced himself from the perpetrators, he participated in the funeral. Does it matter which hat he was wearing at the moment? Was he any less connected to armed republicanism at that point as leader of SF than if he was wearing a black beret?

I would point out that Enda has no problem throwing McConville in Mary Lou’s face which speaks volumes about the sanctity of the memory of an innocent victim. The fact that Nicky Kehoe was deselected after coming within 80 votes of becoming a TD and Mary Lou was kept on even after her more substantial loss in 07 speaks to the new leader theory.

Obviously Grizzly is not honest about the past but then again neither are the respective goverments. And the fact that he is still liable for prosecution must surely color that picture as well. The Troubles did not have a clear resolution so I don’t see there being any meaningfully objective “truth” to be had.

I take the points you are trying to make and they are well thought out and insightful but I find it odd that after a good election for them, especially remembering ’07 that folks are still talking about how,”they didn’t make the leap” or how “their march to power has been halted/slowed” etc. if you credit SF with one thing I believe it would have to be playing the long game and I don’t see how this election would change that. They are now positioned to be the main opposition party. That’s not a horrible place to be as no one saw them being government. Although I’m sure the idea of Adams leading the commemorations for the centenary of the Easter Rising would be enough to keep the Sindo folks up at night gnashing away at their key boards.

Pardon any typos as this was done off my work phone (thank god that I double checked my typing or there would have been a dolphin emoji in there somewhere)

Like

Ivorthorne - February 29, 2016

I think we need to lobby WBS to introduce an emoji based comment system. Who wouldn’t want dolphin emojis!

Sinn Fein continues to have problems with transfers. We’ve seen that in the comparisons of their first preference to second preference. Sinn Fein has made significant progress and will make it to their goal – eventually. But that goal will be met after Adams resigns (probably) so what exactly is the benefit of having him as leader? Would SF have received a single less vote if Doherty was leader?

As I said, Adams has done the country some service, but when we look at on the one hand, the condemnation of McCabe’s killing and on the other his attempts to have them released, it is easy to see why people might not trust a man who seems to talk out of both sides of his mouth at once.

Again with Slab, we all know that Adams is and was fully aware of Murphy’s operation. His points regarding the special criminal court are well made as is his condemnation of those who avoid tax. But calling a man who the public believes (accurately one imagines) to be guilty of tax avoidance (at the very least) a “good republican” is going to rub people up the wrong way.

In both of these cases, there are arguments to be made in Adam’s favour – he is putting the peace process first by doing what was expected of Sinn Fein and keeping Republicanism (relatively) whole and peaceful. But in truth, there are power dynamics within the secret world of Republican paramilitarism that most of us are not aware of but that affect Adam’s actions and you can’t blame people for being uneasy with that.

A new leader does not really change that, but it distances it. Mary Lou or somebody else is not going to get hammered with questions about these kind of things in the same way Adams has. It will be further from the minds of voters.

I’ve always said that a FF/FG coalition is actually the ideal outcome for SF and the left – even if it means that the working class will continue to be hammered as it will allow the left the opportunity to lead opposition and I expect SF to grow again in the next election, but in a PRSTV system, transfers are vital. SF’s terminal goal requires them to be less transfer toxic and Adams is a barrier to achieving that goal.

Like

Ed - February 29, 2016

I think one of the problems for Adams, compared with other revolutionary leaders, is that the Provos didn’t win their war, it ended in a messy compromise. When you win, you basically get to write the history books for a generation or so; you can tidy up all the messy stuff that happens in the course of a revolutionary war and come up with a neat, heroic narrative. It falls to the next generation of historians to raise questions about that narrative. But because the Provos didn’t win, there are a lot of people with real power in Dublin, Belfast and London who are keen to write history to suit themselves.

Like

Jim Monaghan - February 29, 2016

Dail debate on I think turnover tax in late 60s had references to the Civil War.Meaningless by then.

Like

37. fergal - February 29, 2016

Looks like Dublin bay north has adjoutned for the night. Averil Power has called for a recount. She’s about 70 votes behind Broughan.
There’s somebody who has a huge media profile- wonder why?
Catherine Connolly getting in in Galway is good news.
Many of those opposing a ff-fg lash up say that it would leave a clear path for sf as the opposition. Jeez, I thought it was all about saving the country and the national interest..sounds like it’s all about tweedledee and tweedledum saving each other

Like

38. CL - February 29, 2016

In the interest of finance capital since the economic crisis began the troika of F.F, F.G. and Lab. have been attacking working class living standards. These parties of reaction will have a commanding majority of at least 60% in the new Dail. There has been some fight back but much more is needed to prevent the descent into immiseration.

Like

39. Alibaba - February 29, 2016

It seems the recount in Dublin South Central will resume at 1pm today.

‘Bríd Smith of AAA-PBP led Catherine Ardagh of Fianna Fáil by 35 votes in the last count for the final seat, which ended around 3.30am last night.

A full recount took place today at the request of Ms Ardagh during which a large of number of disputed votes were tagged.

After a number of hours of deliberations involving representatives of both candidates the votes that remained disputed were retained for adjudication.

That will be done tomorrow by the returning officer.

So far its understood that the actual recount resulted in the gap between Smith and Ardagh being reduced from 35 to 31.’

Source: RTE News Live Election 2016 updates

Like

40. roddy - February 29, 2016

Adams IS modern SF and will be going nowhere soon.He is the primary reason why I am SF as I had no time for the party prior to 82.I would have been a supporter of the movement but the party of O’Bradaigh and O’connail was a total irrelevance.The other political leaders are political pygmies compared to Adams and nobody outside the freestate would know who Kenny,Martin or Bruton are.This was apparent when Adams was the only figure from the European continent asked to take part in Mandela’s honour guard.The Sticks f—d up big time by pushing Garland andGoulding into the background in an attempt to court “respectability”,gave careerists their head and these people betrayed them. This won’t happen with SF They won’t allow corrupt media barons or RTE to choose their leader and the AIW policy keeps career seeking carpetbaggers from joining the party.

Like


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

<span>%d</span> bloggers like this: