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What has surprised you most about today’s tallies? February 27, 2016

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Any thoughts on that? For me it’s not so much FF ticking upwards – or indeed the fact that Ind/Other have been so strong (I felt that was locked in for a long time now). It is that FG has done so badly. Kenny must be a nervous man this evening. I imagine rotating Taoiseach with M. Martin probably doesn’t appeal. Though the thought strikes, for Easter 2016 what could be more appropriate (in so many ways, many of them not great) than FF and FG helming the state.

(originally the headline said results but as dublinstreams rightly points out there ain’t no results, or only 1, at this point at 14.55 on Sat PM, so tallies it is!).

Number 1 in the Irish charts on polling day of the general elections of the last fifty years. February 27, 2016

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From EamonnCork for which many thanks and as he says …Hardly a decent song among them, the collective musical taste is a bit like the collective political one [I like 1969 and 1973 though – WBS].

2016

2011

2007

2002

1997

1992

1989

1987

1982 (2)

1982 (1)

1981

1977

1973

1969

Kingfisher Restaurant fire February 27, 2016

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There’s many a person from varied republican and left and republican left political backgrounds (just thinking about it the chances of old comrades and rivals being under the same roof would be depending on the day quite high) who were distressed last night to hear the news that there was a fire in the Kingfisher Restaurant, just around the corner from SF’s offices in Dublin. Eaten there many times myself particularly when the creature was on the way and wouldn’t describe it as Newstalk does as simply a ‘fast food outlet’. More a traditional caf and all the better for it. Their chips were great. Let’s hope they can get over this setback.

Election 2016 – Media sites live coverage February 27, 2016

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Here’s RTÉ’s…

Here’s the IT…

All others gratefully accepted in comments.

It’s way too early to begin making predictions… February 27, 2016

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…and I’m particularly leery of any predictions based on exit polls, not least because constituency churn could be considerable. But… an observation or two is perhaps in order. Both Harry McGee in the Irish Times and RTÉ note that FG/FF have for the first time gone below 50%. That’s remarkable even in remarkable times. Granted the left vote as a self-conscious left vote may not be much above 25%. We’ll see. The range evident in the polls should give heart to everyone on the left in all their formations. Oddly though that works for the LP too snatching slightly less defeat from the jaws of defeat. Though if that constituency churn works against them in constituencies…

Just on that isn’t it telling how resilient parties are in our system. I can’t see where the GP could pick up seats but it would appear to have picked up support. FF, supposedly on the ropes or worse for a generation have gained support too. Not massive, nothing compared to the past (and Harry McGee’s analysis is somewhat overheated in this regard), but very real nonetheless. And SF continue to perform worse (nationally) than they might be expected.

The emerging narrative of FG unable to seal the deal misses the point, I think. This government, and its constituent elements have to be one of the most unloved administrations in Irish political history. Even those who – nominally – one would expect to vote for them did so in fewer numbers on the basis of these polls than expected.

On the polls it appears that we are more or less unique in European democracies in having such a vast cohort or Independents – smaller parties too though to a lesser extent, perhaps given the limitations on entering parliaments placed on them elsewhere.

Who knows where this leads next – but all the stuff Tomboktu references in comments from RTÉ about the people not being able to decide is nonsense. It would seem reasonable to infer that given the combinations FG and FF and the remnants of the LP too are being forced to work together.

That RTE exit poll February 27, 2016

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Just for the record…not hugely different, so much depends on individual constituencies, one third of the electorate voting ind and small parties. What ever else this is not a government that is loved. Obvious yes, but not loved by even those one might expect to.

The poll indicates first preference support for Fine Gael is at 24.8%, well down on previous opinion polls and the 2011 general election results.
It suggests support for Labour is at 7.1%, Fianna Fáil at 21.1% and Sinn Féin at 16%.
Turning to Independents, it suggests that one third of the electorate has voted for Independents or smaller parties.
The polls suggests Independents are at 11%; AAA-PBP at 4.7%; Social Democrats at 3.7%; Green Party at 3.6%, the Independent Alliance at 3%, while it indicates support for Renua is at 2.4% and Others at 2.6%.

Election 2016 Count Day(s) – Open Thread February 27, 2016

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Anyone at the count or just general observations from people watching it, all welcome.

This Weekend I’ll Mostly Be Listening to… “I Want Too Much” by A House February 27, 2016

Posted by irishelectionliterature in This Weekend I'll Mostly Be Listening to....
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The ‘difficult second album’ recorded on Innisboffin, some of the reviews at the time were mixed and it failed commercially anding up with them being dropped by Blanco y Negro. Yet for all that ,it’s probably my favourite A House album.
Having seen them umpteen times, bought “Kick Me Again Jesus”/ “Snowball Down” (and played it quietly so my mother wouldn’t hear the lyrics) , I was really looking forward to “On Our Big Fat Merry go Round” yet for the greatness of “My Little Lighthouse”, “I’ll Always Be Grateful” and “Call Me Blue”, there were a few tunes that I wasn’t overly impressed with. Then the problem with Vinyl was that you had to listen to a whole side or else risk scratching the record unless of course you had one of those really fancy turntables with a switch and lever for lifting the needle up and down.
“I Want Too Much” came with it’s brilliant cover , although I wonder did the brown influence it’s sales?

As others see General Election 2016 February 27, 2016

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The Guardian’s Henry McDonald was in Dublin and so offered this. He ventured as far as Dublin Rathdown to meet a familiar figure but curiously didn’t mention a number of parties in his profile. Roy Greenslade asked some useful questions though here though MMV on his conclusion.

The Telegraph is already ringing the changes here. And it makes a point which is sometimes forgotten, that SF is poised to become the third largest party in the state. Entertainingly it lists even fewer parties that McDonald in the Guardian (scroll down the Telegraph article).

Here’s the Daily Mail take on the election.

The UK Independent – has it now finally gone online only, I can’t recall – has this take on the election. Article 41.2 rears its ugly head – and it notes ‘the country’s three largest parties have all pledged to change the issue if elected today’. Not an issue with any great prominence this last three weeks, but long overdue some change.

From the New York Times this week…

…and from the Washington Post their overview.

This from the Washington Post from earlier in the year is kind of entertaining. It outlines that if Bill O’Reilly makes good on his promise to flee the US in the event of a Sanders victory (our loss, their gain) he may not find quite what he was expecting. From difficulties in gaining citizenship, taxation issues, ‘socialised’ medicine (!) and gun control, this may not be his favourite place. Our gain, his loss.

Europe? Le Monde seems to describe (my French is pretty rusty), FF as ‘centre-left’. Well now.

I can’t find anything on El Pais, but that’s down to me I suspect, not them.

The view from Germany is that a Conservative Coalition may be in view… Or as Google Translate puts it kind of neatly:

The most exciting is whether the two moderately conservative parties Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil could form a grand coalition. The obvious answer is: of course not, rather freezes hell to.

Anyone have a roundup of other European or international mainstream news media views on the election?

An Exit Poll February 26, 2016

Posted by irishelectionliterature in Uncategorized.
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Details here

Fine Gael 26.1 per cent;
Labour 7.8 per cent;
Fianna Fail 22.9 per cent;
Sinn Fein 14.9;
AAA/PBP 3.6 per cent;
Greens 3.5 per cent;
Social Democrats 2.8 per cent;
Renua 2.6 per cent;
Others 28.3 per cent.

and another one due in the morning

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