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The first poll of the new Dáil – same old same old March 12, 2016

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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From the SBP, as Liberius noted in comments. And RTÉ suggests that:

A new opinion poll suggests there would only be minor changes to the general election outcome if voters were asked to go to the polls again.

The Sunday Business Post RED C poll found the results would be largely the same for most of the political parties.

The results?

Compared to the General Election, Fine Gael support rose to 27% – that is up one point.

Fianna Fáil support also rose by one point to 25%.

Sinn Féin also saw a one-point increase in support in this poll – bringing it to 15%.

Labour support fell by three points to 4% but the Independent Alliance’s support increased by one point to 5%.

The Social Democrats are also on 5%, that is up two percentage points. But Independents dropped by four points to 9%.

The Anti Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit group are unchanged on 4% as are the Greens on 3%.

There is a 3% margin of error in this poll.

I’m not hugely surprised. I think FF would be taking a significant risk at this point to think they’d benefit from a second election. I’d put it this way. Why do they think that those who voted X this time around will be persuaded to vote Y – particularly for some notional ‘national interest’. It smacks of Lisbon. And worse given that there is a governing option there in front of us and available at this moment, it smacks of complete opportunism. I also wonder are FF overdoing the ‘we won’ kind of stuff. It may well play well within them – but for those outside it seems remarkably, almost absurdly, triumphalist and inappropriate.

Be interesting to see if this softens coughs.

Comments»

1. dmoc - March 12, 2016

FF hubris is going to bring Nemesis flying in on swift wings.
They have learned NOTHING.

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WorldbyStorm - March 12, 2016

It is odd, there’s a sort of giddiness about them at the moment which is perhaps blinding them to realities – political and otherwise.

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irishelectionliterature - March 13, 2016

I think it will take another election for the FF membership to even consider going in or supporting FG.
The grassroots are still drunk on their success, the same people that would have heard all the stuff about can Fianna Fail survive after 2011.
This is of course a membership that has been used to being the major party in the vast majority of governments since 1932. A membership that hate Fine Gael. A membership where even younger ones will cry remember Ballyseedy when going in with FG is mentioned.
I suspect that another election is what they want to try and come out as the bigger two and have Fine Gael ‘capitulate’ to them.
It’s as plain as day what they are at. It’s not about policies it’s about being top dog between FG and FF.
It’s a dangerous game as I wonder will many who went back to FF because of their ‘fairness’ card realise that none of it is about policy it’s about being the top dog.
Will turnout be low in a second election and also having seen the nonsense from FF will they be inclined to vote for them or just go fuck the lot of you and vote for Sinn Fein.

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2. Jolly Red Giant - March 13, 2016

The significant thing in the poll is the drop of LP to 4%

If another election was held in the coming weeks I would expect LP to lose a minimum of 4 of their seats (with gains for SF and the AAA in 3) and could well lose all 7.

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3. lcox - March 13, 2016

Interesting piece here about the problems of polling in the US: http://chronicle.com/article/A-Major-Miss-in-Michigan-Puts/235651. Some is US-specific (eg not knowing who will turn up to caucuses) but much (landline vs mobile phones, impact of differential turnout, elections which aren’t business-as-usual) has relevance here as well.

Not sure if anyone’s yet conducted any analysis of how well or poorly Irish polls predicted the 2016 results?

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WorldbyStorm - March 14, 2016

I don’t think they have. For myself I think they were reasonably good on broad trends not so good on fine detail, and seriously off in regard to the vagaries of PRSTV.

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4. Liberius - March 14, 2016

http://www.redcresearch.ie/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/SBP-13th-March-2016-Poll-Report-GE16.pdf

The lack of detail in that report is troubling, no core figures, no information about the effects of the various filters, truly dreadful. Though on that question on the last page about whether you’re regretting your GE choice Labour would want to be worried.

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dublinstreams - March 16, 2016

page 6 “PROMPT If Independent Candidate for party.” Do they to tell some people that the Independent candidate is in a party or group? what does that mean I asked MR RED C no answer, and on the next page you see they’ve managed to break out Independent Alliance support all the way back to 2011

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Liberius - March 16, 2016

I don’t think they do, It’s more about dealing with people who think ‘independent’ when they mean a smaller party/alliance; they don’t ask which independent you’re thinking of.

As I see it that breakdown on page 7 only has FG, FF, SF, LP GP and IND/OTH going back to 2011. It’s not apparent since the AAA-PBP, SD, IA and Renua breakdowns are all clogged together at the 2016 end of the chart. The long green line at the bottom is the Green Party, the grey line is the independents of today, and the Independent/Others of yesteryear.

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