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Projections on foot of first post-election SBP poll March 13, 2016

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Adrian Kavanagh has done the number crunching and what does he reveal?

Fianna Fail 47, Fine Gael 53, Sinn Fein 25, Labour Party 0, Anti Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 5, Social Democrats 4, Green Party 2, Independents 22.

He’s tweaked his model to account for new constituencies etc (all the usual caveats apply) but even that aside what’s striking is how little real difference there is (unless your name is Joan Burton!). Would FF really pitch the state back into another election to potentially gain so few seats. And look at FG. It would on these figures still remain the largest political party.

As Kavanagh notes:

Based on these seat estimates, a Fine Gael-Fianna Fail “grand coalition” would be the only two-party coalition capable of forming a government without needing the support of others, although a coalition involving either of these two parties and Sinn Fein would come relatively close to the magic 79-seat number.

So, we would be more or less, and really more rather than less, be precisely where we all are.

Comments»

1. An Sionnach Fionn - March 13, 2016

The Labour Party on zero seats? Let us to the ballot boxes!😀

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2. dmoc - March 13, 2016

And a second election with a new FG leader, another beast altogether I think. I know the rule of thumb that ‘leaders don’t make a difference’, but I don’t buy it. A 1% movement opens a 2% gap (+1 -1), and at these levels of support, I think he is a drag. With the exception of the man with two pints, people hate him, with good reason. The ultimate example of the Peter Principle.

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gendjinn - March 14, 2016

Who will wield the knife, and who will benefit?

I hear Martin benefited from the contrast to Kenny, but would that still obtain if Varadkar was the contrast? Who would be the leading contenders for the leadership?

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3. dublinstreams - March 16, 2016

seems like the SDs are limited in in how much they can rise in these projections due to lack of candidates

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