Projections on foot of first post-election SBP poll March 13, 2016Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
Fianna Fail 47, Fine Gael 53, Sinn Fein 25, Labour Party 0, Anti Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 5, Social Democrats 4, Green Party 2, Independents 22.
He’s tweaked his model to account for new constituencies etc (all the usual caveats apply) but even that aside what’s striking is how little real difference there is (unless your name is Joan Burton!). Would FF really pitch the state back into another election to potentially gain so few seats. And look at FG. It would on these figures still remain the largest political party.
As Kavanagh notes:
Based on these seat estimates, a Fine Gael-Fianna Fail “grand coalition” would be the only two-party coalition capable of forming a government without needing the support of others, although a coalition involving either of these two parties and Sinn Fein would come relatively close to the magic 79-seat number.
So, we would be more or less, and really more rather than less, be precisely where we all are.