A new Election… Where FF Could gain and lose? March 14, 2016Posted by irishelectionliterature in Irish Politics.
At the moment FF look highly unlikely to go into coalition with FG and unlikely to even support them from the opposition benches in some kind of Tallaght strategy. I presume the aim is another election and to become bigger than Fine Gael. Going in with FG with FF as a larger party is probably far more palatable to the FF grassroots than going in with less seats than FG. Of course added seats for FF and a few more for Sinn Fein a number of Independents and we might have enough for a different coalition altogether.
Of course it’s a gamble but if it gets FF out of their current predicament it might be worth it……
Some constituencies where Fianna Fail could gain seats.
Carlow-Kilkenny- Jennifer Murnane O’Connor narrowly missed out and for most of the count looked like she would win a seat until the last few counts.
Clare – Malty Mc Donagh could be in with a shout of a second FF seat here , better cote management with Timmy Dooley may well have delivered a seat.
Dublin Central – Mary Fitzpatrick polled well and it was a very tight race, problem was that there were some far more transfer friendly candidates there. I wonder would Maureen O’Sullivan decide not to run again help her here.
Dublin Fingal – Lorraine Clifford Lee polled well, however were there a slight increase in votes and better vote management with party Colleague Darragh O’Brien she could be in with a shout of the final seat.
Dublin North West – Paul McAuliffe was again unlucky being ahead of Noel Rock for all but the last count.
Dublin South Central – Catherine Ardagh lost out by just 35 votes , should be in with a great chance the next time out.
Dun Laoghaire – Mary Hanafin finished 4th here but next time out it will return to being a proper 4 seater as Sean Barrett is no longer the Ceann Comhairle. Should be an FF gain here.
Galway East – Both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael will be targeting the seat of Independent Sean Canney the next time out.
Galway West – In an ultra competitive constituency a thousand more votes for John Connolly may have made a bit of difference
Laois -Sean Fleming romped home here but had no running mate. Might be worth a gamble running a second candidate.
Longford Westmeath -Had Connie Gerety Quinn gotten 27 more votes she more than likely would have taken a seat. Presumably there will be a clamour for a Longford TD the next time out so she could benefit from that…..
Louth -Fine Gael won 2 seats here with only a slightly higher first preference vote than FF. Emma Coffey has a higher profile now and could be in with a shout of the final seat with a slight increase in her vote and a decline in the FG vote.
Offaly – Eddie Fitzpatrick missed out by just 170 votes in the last count. Should be there or thereabouts next time.
Where FF Seats could be in danger
Cavan-Monaghan – Supreme vote management by FF gave Niamh Smyth a seat here along with running mate Brendan Smith. This despite polling over 1,000 votes less than Fine Gael .
Cork North West – Any swing away, better FG vote management or indeed worse FF vote management could lead to FG or an Independent talking the second FF seat here.
Donegal – Although FF won two seats comfortably here, Sinn Fein will be going all out to regain a seat here. Thomas Pringle would seem the most likely target but FF could also be the ones to lose out.
Dublin Bay South- A highly competitive constituency any drop in Jim O’Callaghans vote could see him lose his seat (or indeed any of the other TD’s here).
Dublin West – Another competitive constituency , Chambers should be safe but any drop in support could be costly.
Kildare North – One seat will be in danger from FG here the next time out. Will need good vote management again to hold it.
Mayo -Dara Calleary and Lisa Chambers played a blinder here with regards to vote management. A drop in FF support or a rise in Callearys vote could put the seat in danger.
Roscommon East Galway – Eugene Murphy will come under considerable pressure from Maura Hopkins of Fine Gael here the next time out. Sinn Fein may improve too if Michael Fitzmaurices star begins to fade.
Sligo -Leitrim – Two FF seats here , FG may well just run two the next time out which will put pressure on one of the FF seats
Wicklow – Pat Casey could be in danger here with Billy Timmons trying his upmost to win back the ‘West Wicklow’ seat.