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Coalition… March 30, 2016

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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I’ve already mentioned some of the math in relation to government formation this week, but a nice line in the SBP from Mary Regan this weekend about how Kenny and FG are seeking to form a ‘coalition of the unwilling’. But who could they be talking about? FF or Independents and Others? If the latter some of them seem all too willing, even if it is a case of offering minority support to an FG led administration.

Interestingly Regan believes that some in FG are sanguine about a minority FG government with Independent/GP/Other support.

FG TDs believe that [with FF abstaining FG can bring the number needed to win a Dáil vote down to 58] this figure [58]is too low for the party to have the moral authority to run a government. Some have se the bar as high as 70 for it to have legitimacy, others say the mid-60s might have to do.

There’s a lot in that. Even with FF sitting on its hands how does FG navigate convincingly around the issue of legitimation. It’s not that a minority government is illegitimate as such, particularly not in our system, but rather that it needs to have some weight to it.

Here’s another interesting point from Regan. She reports that Simon Coveney says:

‘The nature of being an independent TD is very different now to maybe what it has benign the past’.

And:

Out of the 15 that he has held a number of discussions with, he said ‘none of them have actually sought a deal for their individual constituencies. They realise we have a different political landscape now, a much more sophisticated electorate that wants to see the political system work in the context of how they voted a few weeks ago’.

Assuming that is correct it suggests that the national weighs large in independents thinking. Perhaps they calculate that the electorate is impatient for deals to be done and government to resume. What will be very telling is whether by aligning with FG, or indeed FF, they will lose support.

Comments»

1. irishelectionliterature - March 30, 2016

I think the Independents want to be seen “to step up to the plate” as it were and make themselves relevant to Government formation.
That is at the nub of it as they want to be seen as responsible, especially if there is another election soon. Both FG and FF would both have surely used the line in another election that Independents are a wasted vote.
There are too many Independents for Local deals but a common raft of policies aimed at ‘Rural Ireland’ should suit many of them

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WorldbyStorm - March 30, 2016

Isn’t it interesting how so many of the Independents are badging themselves as ‘rural’?

Think you’re spot on re the rest.

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gendjinn - March 30, 2016

There’s a problem for independents in retaining viability, relevance and being re-elected if they never go into government. You can do it, but you’ve got to be shining in other areas to compensate. That’s hard and/or those talents are rare.

Now there’s a difference with being in govt for the sake of maximising the bacon you take home to your constituents, going into govt because the programme aligns with your platform/mandate or for the ministerial pension.

Given how much Tony Gregory was able to negotiate for, any FG deal is going to be astronomical.

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dublinstreams - March 30, 2016

“Given how much Tony Gregory was able to negotiate for, any FG deal is going to be astronomical.” or as I suspect in that case unfulfilled.

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2. dublinstreams - March 30, 2016

you could put in the links to article even if they are behind paywalls, from Michael Brennan’s article

But Independent Alliance TD Finian McGrath warned that Fine Gael had to deliver on issues such as a new 20-bed cystic fibrosis unit for Beaumont Hospital. “That would serve all of the city of Dublin, north Louth and Meath. So it’s not a local parish pump project. That’s a serious issue for me,” he said. http://www.businesspost.ie/independents-set-for-crunch-talks-with-ff-and-fg/

not parish pump but Pale pump?

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3. fergal - March 30, 2016

See Enda according to the Irish Times has told the Indos that’s it’s a fg minority led government or another election- sounds like a threat.
Despite Noonan’s warnings our particular brand of ‘chaos’ hasn’t changed a thing- our bond yields are still dirt cheap, the multinationals haven’t budged and the ‘recovery is being kept going’

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gendjinn - March 30, 2016

Any speculation regarding FF?

A re-run might be planned to conflict with the upcoming Stormont outing with the vain idea it may stretch SF resources to campaign in 32 vs 26 counties.

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4. dublinstreams - March 30, 2016

posting this a bit late but Irish Times podcast from last week was good on discussing the numbers https://soundcloud.com/irishtimes-politics/formation-of-new-government-an-ongoing-process-how-does-the-seanad-work and saying although Noel Grealish is from Galway City its partly rural.

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