Coalition… March 30, 2016Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
I’ve already mentioned some of the math in relation to government formation this week, but a nice line in the SBP from Mary Regan this weekend about how Kenny and FG are seeking to form a ‘coalition of the unwilling’. But who could they be talking about? FF or Independents and Others? If the latter some of them seem all too willing, even if it is a case of offering minority support to an FG led administration.
Interestingly Regan believes that some in FG are sanguine about a minority FG government with Independent/GP/Other support.
FG TDs believe that [with FF abstaining FG can bring the number needed to win a Dáil vote down to 58] this figure is too low for the party to have the moral authority to run a government. Some have se the bar as high as 70 for it to have legitimacy, others say the mid-60s might have to do.
There’s a lot in that. Even with FF sitting on its hands how does FG navigate convincingly around the issue of legitimation. It’s not that a minority government is illegitimate as such, particularly not in our system, but rather that it needs to have some weight to it.
Here’s another interesting point from Regan. She reports that Simon Coveney says:
‘The nature of being an independent TD is very different now to maybe what it has benign the past’.
Out of the 15 that he has held a number of discussions with, he said ‘none of them have actually sought a deal for their individual constituencies. They realise we have a different political landscape now, a much more sophisticated electorate that wants to see the political system work in the context of how they voted a few weeks ago’.
Assuming that is correct it suggests that the national weighs large in independents thinking. Perhaps they calculate that the electorate is impatient for deals to be done and government to resume. What will be very telling is whether by aligning with FG, or indeed FF, they will lose support.