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The Public Meeting posters haven’t appeared yet ….but we’re heading for another election ! March 31, 2016

Posted by irishelectionliterature in Irish Politics.
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Michael Healy Rae said recently that we’d be heading back to the polls on the 20th of May. I’ve no doubt now that he’s correct, his date may be out by a week or two but we’re heading for another election.
The fuss over a phone call between Enda Kenny and Micheál Martin indicates that no matter what, we are not looking at any cooperation between FF and FG this side of another election.
“I rang You”
“I Texted you first”
“Lets meet tomorrow”
“No Lets meet next week” and on and on……
All this after the whole country wondering why they hadn’t started talking the Monday after the election! Instead they talked to almost everyone they could despite knowing that numbers wise each would need the support or at least the agreement of the other.
There will of course be lengthy talks which will eventually break down, more than likely over Irish Water. It’s all now about optics of who is to blame for the two parties not going in with each other.
I may be wrong but at present there is no way the FF membership will vote for any arrangement with Fine Gael. Whatever happens there is no way FF will let a deal come before the membership otherwise it will be defeated.
They will take their chances of another election and hope to come back with more seats than Fine Gael.
A quick election will of course mean that Fine Gael won’t have a chance to change leader , which given his performance in the media during the previous campaign won’t do Fine Gael any good at all and of course Martin will come out looking even better. Where Martin (on 20 seats) was not really an option as Taoiseach in the recent election, he is now. So we get the added bonus of a campaign asking “Enda Kenny or Micheál Martin for Taoiseach?”.
In a quick election Fianna Fail could continue with their ‘Ireland for All’ fairer Ireland mantra whilst Fine Gael will have to come up with new slogans and a new campaign theme.
Both parties will be targeting the seats of Independents as well as the ones they missed out narrowly on.

Comments»

1. dublinstreams - March 31, 2016

and still neither will get near a majority

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irishelectionliterature - March 31, 2016

No, but I think it’s going to take another election for them to both consider going in with each other, just to remove any doubt that it’s something that they have to do.
The optics and how the breakdown of negotiations are handled will be vital to both. Also if FF are larger they would be more likely to go in.

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dublinstreams - March 31, 2016

a new election based on not going into government with each other will produce a FF/FG coalition?

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irishelectionliterature - March 31, 2016

Yes, it will take an election for both sides to cop that it’s the only option (assuming the numbers don’t change too much)

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dublinstreams - March 31, 2016

that’s if you believe they don’t realise that already despite what they say publicly

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irishelectionliterature - April 1, 2016

Yes, having taken a battering in 2011 and recovered somewhat in the recent election, FF are not going to take a chance this time on the fate that befell Labour and The Greens as Junior Coalition partners.

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gendjinn - April 1, 2016

If FF/FG can’t do the bleeding obvious, aren’t they just asking for voters to go elsewhere?

Liked by 1 person

Alibaba - April 1, 2016

Voters may think you both had a mandate. There is no difference between you. You ignored this in fits of pique. Not fit for purpose. Let’s go elsewhere. That said, it is all so unpredictable. No outcome would surprise me.

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2. Michael Carley - March 31, 2016

If you can lay hands on it, the Dublin Review has a great piece on the three main ardfheiseanna, very good on the atmosphere in the parties before this year’s first election.

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irishelectionliterature - March 31, 2016

I haven’t read it but was at the FG and FF ones. FG one was far more upbeat than the FF one.

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WorldbyStorm - March 31, 2016

A very depressing analysis IEL, but it sounds spot on.

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irishelectionliterature - March 31, 2016

We’ll be back in the same position in a few months time and eventually they will have to realise what the rest of the Country grasped immediately after the first election.

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gendjinn - April 1, 2016

What if both FF/FG come back with a handful of fewer seats each? Especially as everyone else will be running the mantra of “A vote for FF OR FG, is a vote for FF AND FG!”

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EWI - April 1, 2016

If FF were to go back to the country on an anti-Irish Water platform, and rolling back austerity… I think that their resurgence to this level has surprised everyone. Becoming re-established as a credible prospect for leading a government can only help them get more votes next time out, whichever way you feel about such a prospect.

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Tomboktu - April 1, 2016

When will people here realise that the only vital issue is that Enda Kenny becomes the first FG| taoiseach to be re-elected to a second successive term. All else is froth,

Please do try to keep up, people.

Liked by 3 people

WorldbyStorm - April 1, 2016

That rings very true EWI, they’re definitely back in the game and would almost certainly gain seats next time out – a lot depends on how a second election narrative is shaped i.e. who gets the blame. No wonder they’re dancing around it…

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