Another Election..? How would might some of those FG/FF/LP TDs fare? April 5, 2016Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
Here’s an interesting exercise. Count up the number of SF and Independents who were elected 1st or 2nd in constituencies (regardless of which count it was). Now I’m not suggesting they’re a shoe-in any other election, but they presumably are a bit safer than those elected on later counts. By my reckoning that would see about 20 Independent/Other TDs with a good solid chance of being returned – down from 34. And SF? About 13 down from 23. Of course this isn’t accurate as a prediction of the future, but it is suggestive. And nor is it certain that seats that changed hands would change hands to FF and FG.
I’m sure others have been puzzling over these figures for quite some weeks now. A point was made to me today, that FF are scared not to do a deal. Perhaps this is one of the reasons why. And a further point, everyone is in the same boat. All those new FF TDs, are they keen to waltz out again into the electoral battleground? A fair few of them must be wondering how they’d fare in Election 2016 redux.