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Another Election..? How would might some of those FG/FF/LP TDs fare? April 5, 2016

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Here’s an interesting exercise. Count up the number of SF and Independents who were elected 1st or 2nd in constituencies (regardless of which count it was). Now I’m not suggesting they’re a shoe-in any other election, but they presumably are a bit safer than those elected on later counts. By my reckoning that would see about 20 Independent/Other TDs with a good solid chance of being returned – down from 34. And SF? About 13 down from 23. Of course this isn’t accurate as a prediction of the future, but it is suggestive. And nor is it certain that seats that changed hands would change hands to FF and FG.

I’m sure others have been puzzling over these figures for quite some weeks now. A point was made to me today, that FF are scared not to do a deal. Perhaps this is one of the reasons why. And a further point, everyone is in the same boat. All those new FF TDs, are they keen to waltz out again into the electoral battleground? A fair few of them must be wondering how they’d fare in Election 2016 redux.

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1. irishelectionliterature - April 5, 2016

Party and candidates finances can’t be too healthy after the election. I also sense that there is a growing sense of anger at the lack of talking between FG and FF. Were there another election one or both parties would be hammered.
To bastardise a recent slogan FF want to keep their recovery going and an election could see them lose a good number of seats.
There are also the practicalities of having conventions , gender quotas and so on and trying to do that within a short space of time.

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WorldbyStorm - April 5, 2016

That’s got to be a factor re finance. I’d agree entirely, I think people are losing patience. It was one thing over St. Patrick’s/Easter with commemorations and events and the sense that the state was continuing as usual, now it’s mostly back to normal. People can see that there’s a lot of posturing. I think if they got a hammering it would be deservedly so.

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Gewerkschaftler - April 5, 2016

That’s what I’ve heard as well – ‘Just get on with it’ seems to be the feeling – the FF/FG party activists don’t realise that for voters the historical animosity between them is just that – historical.

So I’m still tentatively predicting a FG/FF coalition that will last longer than expected. With probably some hangers-on who think they have a right to a seat in a Merc to give it the aura of a government of national unity.

You know who I mean.

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gendjinn - April 5, 2016

Which then begs the question, if they can’t “just get on with it” how does that impact a voter’s 3rd, 4th, etc prefs?

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2. Jim Monaghan - April 5, 2016

On an aside. All the parties and TDs have being calling for an enhanced role for the Dail. And then went into private huddles to select a government. Seeming contradiction, or am I just naive.I accept of course, that the discussions did not involve patronage, clientilism, bums on Mercs. (or in Mercs) etc.

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irishelectionliterature - April 5, 2016

I’m told the discussions with FG by the Inds were fairly serious and fairly thorough and involved a lot of effort on FGs part.
I do think though a lot of it was in the hope that by engaging with the Independents they would scupper the prospect of an FF led minority government.
The talking proper will start after the next vote for Taoiseach when neither Martin nor Kenny will be elected.
I don’t think the general electorate realise the pure hatred that there is on both sides of the FF/FG divide, especially from FF.

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3. gendjinn - April 5, 2016

WbS,

If FF/FG can’t see the obvious consequences of the numbers then surely their 3rd, 4th, 5th seats are more in danger than opposition parties?

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WorldbyStorm - April 5, 2016

True but I’m just being pessimistic and offering a bad case scenario for the non orthodox inds and parties

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gendjinn - April 5, 2016

As Denis Leary put it in Suicide Kings – Irish optimisim – expect the worst but look forward to getting through it.

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WorldbyStorm - April 5, 2016

Yeah, that sounds about right.

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