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Another Election. Potential outcomes? April 5, 2016

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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And following on the last post I’m curious as to what people feel the outcome of an election in the next couple of months might be? Who would gain, who would lose? Obviously it is impossible to know, but what is the sense of things at this point?

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1. gerryboy - April 5, 2016

As somebody who voted for five independent candidates in the order of my preference, and for no party candidate, I would vote exactly the same way again. And I hope if there is another election before the end of the year that an increased number of voters like myself would vote similarly and ensure that the FF-FG fake oppositionists would get the message that they had better coalesce and put civil war memories to bed.

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dmoc - April 5, 2016

more indo seats could have been won, but there were too many candidates splitting the vote (and even with transfers, there was too much scatter). I’d like to think that many of those indos who came in under 2K would see the pointlessness of trying again, and leave the field to those with a more realistic chance.

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2. ivorthorne - April 5, 2016

I would expect a similar enough result with some potential losses for FG depending on the length of the campaign. I think that some of the smaller candidates would not run again due to the cost and this has some small potential to benefit the “independent/other” candidates. More informed vote management could mean that tight seats zig rather than zag this time but for all that, we’d find ourselves in the same situation – FF and FG would need to come to an arrangement in order for a minority government.

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gerryboy - April 5, 2016

I hope FF and FG would be forced by the arithmetic and sense of voter contempt to coalesce rather than ‘come to an arrangement’.

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Alibaba - April 5, 2016

I think ivorthorne calls it well. The worst possible outcome is for FG and FF to ‘coalesce’ together. Getting the most conservative, powerful and affluent forces together doesn’t make any sense to me. They’d hammer the hell out of us.

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oconnorlysaght - April 5, 2016

Every action has its reaction. Yes, those gougers would try to hammer the hell out of us. Do we let them? Remember, there is a world of discontented people outside the Dail. it is being tapped; the tapping must be increased.

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3. roddy - April 5, 2016

When and if they come together ,parties supported by people on here should cooperate to the max to dig up and throw shite at FF /FG until they inevitably collapse amongst a mass of scandals and contradictions.

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4. irishelectionliterature - April 5, 2016

I think FF and FG would lose seats. As for who would lose more, a lot will depend on if Coalition gets to a vote at an FF Members Ard Fheis. If that’s defeated then I really think FF would bear the brunt of the hammering.
The Independents have played a blinder at looking responsible and being willing to talk about government formation. If you’d told me the day of the election that Michael Healy Rae and Mattie McGrath could appear statesmanlike compared to FF and FG I would have laughed but themselves, Denis Naughten and the others have really shown FF up.
One thing that has struck me over the past weeks is the pure bitterness among especially the Younger FF TDs (although not shocked by Barry Cowen) towards FG. It’s as if they are trying to appeal to the FF membership rather than the electorate.

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rockroots - April 5, 2016

If there’s any justice they would fall below 50% of seats between them and regret not having done a deal sooner.

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5. Jolly Red Giant - April 5, 2016

Labour could possibly lose all their remaining seats

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WorldbyStorm - April 5, 2016

Just looking at that I would think four of the seven would be in serious potential trouble. howlin, Ryan and Sherlock less so

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irishelectionliterature - April 5, 2016

I wonder would Joan Burton bother standing again? I think Howlin, Ryan and Sherlock would hold on. Kelly , O’Sullivan doubtful, Penrose very doubtful.
Hard to see too many places where they would gain in a quick election. O’Riordan, Kevin Humphreys and Ged Nash only real possibilities.

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WorldbyStorm - April 5, 2016

That’s very true re Burton, I hadn’t thought of that

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dmoc - April 5, 2016

Howlin’s safe as houses. Must have a hell of a constituency base / constituency work to top the poll on count 1.
http://www.irishtimes.com/election-2016/wexford

Green’s comeback can only hurt Labour, as they’ll be seen as a credible protest vote by the middle class Labour supporter.

As mentioned, Labour has 3 possible gains, but also 3 or more possible losses. So they’ll be in no hurry for a redo.

As I mentioned above, in a snap election, I’d hope (if not expect) some of the less successful indo candidates – those who got under 1 or 2K votes, to look at it realistically and cop on, get real, and stand down. Fewer indos = tighter vote management = more indos = fewer FG/FF/Lab seats.

SF were nail-bitingly close in a lot of seats, about 5 to 7 where they lost by double figures or low hundreds. Donegal, FFS. That second seat is a shoe-in for them when they run two not three next time. They’ll really hammer those 7 constituencies (and most of those seats were lost to FF/FG/Lab parties. If SF got a small % increase (.5% or 1%) they’d win a raft of seats, low 30s at least.

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dmoc - April 5, 2016

smaller parties will have access to actual poll results from FEB, so the polling intel gap between the large and small parties will be at its lowest possible. Smaller parties (Greens, PBP/AAA SF) will know exactly where to target limited resources, and where to avoid.

FF/FG have to run big,national campaigns, so surely a second GE is a much bigger drain on their depleting funds, relatively, to the small (who already have their posters printed).

FG will have to run a completely new campaign, as “keep the recovery going” had all the appeal of an easter egg made out of shite.

Second GE can be sold by the ABFFFG parties as a sign of their greed and selfishness. “We’re doing this because FF and FG won’t do the mature thing and go into government”; hammer that drum for 4 to 6 weeks.

Second GE has upsides for the small, and downsides for the big, seems to me.

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WorldbyStorm - April 5, 2016

I find Howlin’s success very interesting. How does he do it? And re a small increase in the SF vote, well, that’s all it would take as you say for a fair few more.

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6. gendjinn - April 5, 2016

From this distance, it’s hard to see if the Rising celebrations/outrages have helped/hurt various parties. Simplistically one would expect the Glasnevin wall fiasco to aid SF and hurt the govt, unless the govt is distanced from the decision. Or the 4 leaders poster at College Green.

Labour post-election hasn’t helped itself and given I think the wave broke for them on 2 seats they’d be lucky to retain their current numbers. Would there be an increased effort to defeat Burton this time?

BRING ME THE POLLS OF REDC (and the head of Alfredo Garcia).

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CMK - April 5, 2016

Well given the temper tantrum thrown by SF in Dublin West when their candidate failed to dislodge Burton, you can be sure the Ard Comhairle/Army Council will ensure the ball isn’t dropped a second time. Burton would be a goner for sure.

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gendjinn - April 6, 2016

Indeed. Although the bickering between SF and AAA-PBP, will likely hurt the former in left transfers in a re-run.

I wonder will the results from a re-run fall within the MoE of this one.

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7. Enda - April 5, 2016

If we have to do it all again, all candidates, especially those running for FF or FG wd have to talk about possible formations with other parties as they go through their campaigns and not maintain the illusion that their far seeing policies and heart stirring rhetoric will lead them straight to Government. Wonder how many of the electorate really
do not want FF/FG coalition because of SF being in opposition and wish to maintain the conditions of the last 80+ years.

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WorldbyStorm - April 5, 2016

That’s a good question.

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8. 1798Mike - April 5, 2016

You asked the question WBS “how does Howlin do it ” in terms of electoral success ? Well I lived Wexford for many years and still keep in touch with old trade union friends and with local political trends.

First of all, Howlin has always been ruthlessly selfish in politics. In the best of times, he had no interest in growing the Labour Party. He preferred a small tight organisation of essentially family retainers. Countless people who came to live in Wexford & who sought to get involved in Labour politics quickly became dispirited and dropped away. Howlin didn’t care. Total control was more important.
Secondly, as minister, while he spurned ‘essential’ requests from Labour TDs for spending projects in their constituencies. He exercised no such constraint when it came to ensuring funds for school extensions, new schools, new facilities for Wexford hospital etc. or other local projects. He even ensured that the Wexford Opera House became the ‘National Opera House’ – presumably it meant access to more funds.
Thirdly, he was lucky in this election. His base is the Wexford Town district and the candidates to his left were very weak: I refer to the Social Democrat, Leonard Kelly and Deirdre Wadding Byrne from PBP.
Mick Wallace is from the Deep South of the county, although he has a county-wide appeal. Mythen of Sinn Fein is from the Enniscorthy. He is widely regarded as a decent man and indeed polled well.
What finally copper fastened Howlin’s relative success was that Fine Gael ran no candidate from the Wexford Town area. Liam Twomey’s middle class Fine Gael vote shifted en bloc to Howlin. Without that addition of Fine Gael votes, he could have been in serious trouble. For loyal Fine Gael voters, he is a perfect choice – articulate & intelligent in a manner Kehoe & Darcy, their TDs, are not, and espousing and implementing Fine Gael policies. After Howlin, that ‘Labour’ seat will be gone.

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dmoc - April 5, 2016

I saw the video of him snapping his fingers at a garda when he was being questioned by a photographer about some govt. skullduggery. He seemed like a noxious little martinet. You comment verifies that perception.

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9. roddy - April 5, 2016

the army council have seconded the engineering department from South Armagh to disrupt all the electronic communications of rival candidates and to electronically distort Burtons voice to make it even more annoying!

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