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There may be trouble ahead: ST weekend poll April 16, 2016

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Wouldn’t you know, FF up to 26%, FG down to 23%, that +4 and -7 respectively, big shifts by the way and outside the MOE, SF 17% +2, Independent alliance 8% +3, Independents 10%,  LP and AAAPBP both on 4% the latter down 1%, GP and WP on 3%, SDs on 2%, Renua 1%. 

Difficult to understand in a way. Some involved in government negotiations aren’t profiting others who aren’t are. Indos obviously making hay. SF too. FG? But will this impel FF to go for an election?
Though a bit of context, compare and contrast with last SBP poll, the first after the election. The shifts seem somewhat less striking. Is it movement between FF and FG or rather vice versa?

As Adrian Kavanagh noted then:

 Independents and Others 29% – including Social Democrats 5%, Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 4%, Renua 2%, Green Party 3%, Independent Alliance 5%, Other Independents 9% –, Fine Gael 27%, Fianna Fail 25%, Sinn Fein 15%, Labour Party 4%.

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1. dublinstreams - April 16, 2016

for what 1 more cabinet seat beyond the 50% they were offered ?

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2. PaddyM - April 16, 2016

Difficult to understand in a way. Some involved in government negotiations aren’t profiting others who aren’t are. Indos obviously making hay. SF too. FG? But will this impel FF to go for an election?

What it principally shows is that the pol. corrs haven’t a f***ing clue about the world beyond their bubble. Something which should have already been clear from the election results.

I really don’t think there’s any great enthusiasm for the return of FG – particularly the return of FG led by Kenny – and I suspect that a resurrection of FG/Lab with the Greens thrown in for an extra south Dublin flavour would go down even less well with the world beyond Kildare Street and the Dundrum Town Centre.

Whatever is spatchcocked together now is likely to last until such time as its own internal contradictions (some ministerial cock-up or scandal or some internal row over an unforeseen issue) cause it to implode. All FF and SF will have to do is sit and wait.

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CL - April 16, 2016

‘They also serve who only stand and wait’-Milton.

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WorldbyStorm - April 16, 2016

I think there’s something in what you say PaddyM re pol corrs.

But that said one thing that has struck me this last week is talking to people who I know who would be broadly and in some instances very pro-FF (as voters) has been a real impatience with them. I wonder is that a Dublin thing? Looking at the figures it’s telling to me that Inds/small parties, etc pretty much hold up whereas FG -> FF. Is it possible that mostly outside Dublin there’s a shifting back to older allegiances?

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3. gendjinn - April 17, 2016

Keep chewing this one over and it just seems odd. It’s a dramatic swing that contradicts the apparent consensus narrative of the coalition discussions that portrayed FG in a good light and FF in a bad.

I’m curious to see if it’s a particular region or demo that FG has alienated.

Or is it a bit of buyers remorse of choosing Enda over MM?

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4. Liberius - April 17, 2016

I think I’ve plumbed the depths of opinion polling in the past, so I’m cutting back on it. The Demographic breakdown is the most interesting to me so I’ll extract that from the PDF and leave the rest to others.

The raw demographic is ABC1 51%, C2DE 43.5% and F 5.5%.
The demographic excluding undecided is ABC1 52.6%, C2DE 42.4%, F 5%.
The final adjusted demographic is ABC1 53.9%, C2DE 41%, F 5%

The source for this information is pages 40, 42 and 44.

Just two last things, the past recall on page 62 is a bit high for FF, especially in Dublin, sample error could be at work there. The Workers’ party support is concentrated in Munster with 8% of the regional sample (p. 46), I sceptical of the reality of those numbers; Ted Tynan surely hasn’t multiplied his vote by several times in only two months.

http://banda.ie/wp-content/uploads/J-7429-Sunday-Times-April-2016-Report.pdf

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paulculloty82 - April 17, 2016

Not to mention that they rarely record even 1% in non-B&A polls. As you say, the smaller parties have varied little from either the GE or the last poll, but the IA gloss will probably pall when they either enter government, or pull out at the last minute, and the media spotlight dims in either case.

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