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10 extra seats for FG with Kenny gone? April 18, 2016

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Wow, here’s a thought. In an overview of the current machinations, what of this from Fiach Kelly in the Irish Times?

A Fine Gael led by Leo Varadkar, Coveney or Frances Fitzgerald will be a different electoral proposition than one led by Kenny, who Fianna Fáil believe cost Fine Gael 10 seats.

Can that be true? And if it is it raises yet further questions about FF’s approach to date. Surely they should want to keep Kenny in situ as distinct from allowing another leader to emerge and lead FG to that extra 10 seats. Moreover, do they believe they would get more seats again than an FG that gained enough seats to push it into the 60s in terms of numbers of TDs?

Kelly suggests that days are numbered as FG Taoiseach. I suppose managing to bring FG back to government for the first time ever after being in power is not a bad achievement just in terms of the politics, though the cost to the state and citizens is another matter entirely. He’s been leader for fifteen years, near enough. It raises another question, is he the most successful FG leader – and what is the yardstick one uses for that anyhow?

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1. 10 extra seats for FG with Kenny gone? — The Cedar Lounge Revolution | Machholz's Blog - April 18, 2016

[…] via 10 extra seats for FG with Kenny gone? — The Cedar Lounge Revolution […]

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2. 6to5against - April 18, 2016

these polls can be a little ridiculous though. there are two many levels of ‘what if’ to them. What ‘if’ there was an election, followed by, but what ‘if’ Leo was leader. No doubt there would be a bounce in FG support if leo took over – if only because of the soft focus Media coverage that would follow. But the fact that he’s quite personable is of little effect in the long run.Throughout his career he’s either been ineffectual (in health) or clumsy (in opposition).

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WorldbyStorm - April 18, 2016

Agree, though his personable nature is variable. I recall years back him on the Week in Politics or some such staunchly denying that poverty was a factor in health. Nice work for a medical doctor.

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3. CMK - April 18, 2016

From inside the Pol Cor bubble that might make sense as it is clear that nearly every Pol Cor loves Varadkar and thinks he’d be a great FG leader and Taoiseach. Reminds me of the hype about Brian Lenihan junior in the mid-2000s and look how that turned out.

I hope FG do actually choose Varadkar to lead them as he would, conceivably, lose them lots of seats. He’s too strident a Thatcherite and he seems incapable of engaging in the dissembling that is required of a successful mainstream politician here. I can see him telling people they are going to be taxed more and more public services are going to be cut and to just ‘suck it up’. While FF will do the same thing, they at least will try to sugarcoat it somehow. Varadkar probably won’t. Or else, he will try, under pressure from his handlers, but he will then let slip his real views at inconvenient times and damage FG.

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4. irishelectionliterature - April 18, 2016

Kenny is unpopular and there probably is a ceiling on FGs support until he is gone. A new FG leader , say Frances Fitzgerald, would be certainly be more popular than Kenny (and you’d have the first female Taoiseach line too) until the novelty had worn off.
It’s hard to quantify seats as I would have thought Kenny would be most unpopular in Dublin but FG did OK in Dublin, as their message of Recovery actually worked here. Indeed there is probably only room for a gain of two or three seats for FG in Dublin (and they’ll lose one in Dun Laoghaire next time).

I think you have to ask how many extra seats did FF pick up because of Martin? In the main debates he was the best of the leaders. FF probably picked up 6 or 7 seats on the back of it.
10 seats is an exaggeration but they may have picked up five extras if it were someone else.

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Gewerkschaftler - April 18, 2016

Let’s for arguments sake say 5 seats then.

Would that really get FG out of their current problems? Especially after an election where Labour is likely to loose further seats?

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irishelectionliterature - April 18, 2016

Another election is probably going to be Martin v Kenny for Taoiseach. If it is, at the moment I would say Martin is the winner.
In 2011 Kenny sold us an image of a chairman type leader who facilitated a talented cabinet. It didn’t work out that way.
We won’t know the answer until he is gone from the FG leadership. However FF would be only too delighted for him to remain on as FG leader, so they must reckon that he is a liability for FG. I suppose a lot of people are just sick of him.

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gendjinn - April 18, 2016

10 seats? “Sources” in FF think FG could have gotten an extra 10 seats without Kenny?

Sounds more like Brer Rabbit asking not to be thrown into the briar patch to me.

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WorldbyStorm - April 18, 2016

I’m as one with the scepticism re Varadker, though I think IEL is right that another leader than Kenny (or V – say FitzGerald perhaps) might have got them a few more seats.

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5. sonofstan - April 18, 2016

I’d like to know where those 10 seats would be. They did nearly as well as they could ever do in Dublin – hard to see where more would have come from. And I’m not sure how well Leo plays outside the M50 beltway

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6. botheredbarney - April 18, 2016

The politics of opinion polls is see-saw political feeling based on see-saw statistics. Let opinion polls come and go while we concentrate on our constant socio-economic and cultural wishes. What do we want from the activity of the 32nd Dail? What kind of government and opposition might deliver on our priority wishes? I think there are too many opinion polls too often, distracting citizens from coping with immediate and longer term life goals. I wish the media would stop giving so much premium attention to oscillating polls.

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7. shea - April 18, 2016

Thats like a mayo man or a kerry man telling gavin Dublin would do a lot better with out a brogan, out of the goodness of their hart.

This read between the lines psychoanalysis approach of irish political analysis needs to stop, its a distracting spiral. Ireland needs a new paper.

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