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Brexit and Ireland… April 19, 2016

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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…useful overview in the IT by Sylvia de Mars of the law faculty of Newcastle University and Aoife O’Donoghue a senior lecturer in law at Durham University. After considering the very complex web of relationships between these islands, and on them they suggest that:

From the perspective of both the UK and Irish governments, the citizens of either country, with some minor exceptions, are identical. Passport-free travel and ease of access to employment has been the norm since Irish independence. Joining the EU did not change this; but one of the two countries leaving may have significant consequences on how free the movement between them remains. In the aftermath of Brexit, Ireland would have to think long and hard about which relationship to prioritise: the 27-member EU with its Schengen area, or the stand-alone UK?

I don’t know whether this state can make that sort of a decision. On what side would the balance lie? How would it be effected? The idea that Ireland would opt out of the EU – whatever one thinks of that entity, in order to sustain that web of relationships seems difficult to believe. Yet something would have to be done.

Fundamentally as de Mars and O’Donoghue note that in the event of a Brexit all the assurances from the likes of Theresa Villiers that nothing would change seem dubious when one considers that:

… EU nationals with a right to reside in Ireland can become Irish citizens and gain access to the UK in a fully legal manner via the CTA. Second, that on Brexit, the UK-Ireland border would represent an external border to the EU as a whole. There are no other ‘external’ EU borders that do not come with concrete border controls, and while the UK and Ireland may have a special relationship, Ireland’s relationship with the EU will require it to protect the EU’s borders.

This is a bit like squaring a circle. At the least Brexit would appear to deepen divisions on this island – and again that is without making any value judgement about the EU.

Comments»

1. Roger Cole - April 19, 2016

The United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland is a state totally committed to the dominate neo-liberal militarist ideology. The EU is also committed to the dominate neo-liberal militarist ideology.
Supporter of an Irish Republic should not be all that keen on been members of either.

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2. CL - April 19, 2016

Economically Ireland the U.S and Britain more than it needs the EU. But being in the Eurozone complicates matters.

“Instead [Ireland] has moved from de facto full dependency on Britain to a shared dependency on Britain and the US in developing and securing employment.”
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/bundestag-committee-claims-ireland-has-no-plan-for-growth-1.1856046

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3. CL - April 19, 2016

‘Economically Ireland NEEDS U.S and Britain….

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4. Jim Monaghan - April 19, 2016

It is a choice of lesser evils. Personally I incline to Stay on marginal grounds. I think the UK will go more UKIP outside and the anti-migrant thing will grow. The UK and Ireland are the worst on migrants in the EU. I doubt any Uk or Irish mainstream politician would do a Merkel on entry for a nano-second, not that I am a fan of Merkel. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34131911

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Michael Carley - April 19, 2016

My view exactly: we don’t have a choice between Schauble and Corbyn, we have a choice between a slightly-restrained Schauble and an unrestrained Cameron, Osborne or Johnson.

Talk of how leaving the EU will bring down the government and cause a turn to the left is the most wishful of thinking.

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gendjinn - April 19, 2016

Agreed. In the context of US Truman 2.0 – encirclement of China and advance of NATO up to the Russian border – I’m really not a big fan of the UK military being outside the EU. The possibilities for a US/UK v EU re-alignment over the next century would be too high.

What happens when Africa out migration goes asymptotic? Or the Chinese environment collapses?

The only benefit of UK leaving is that Scotland and perhaps Wales leaves the UK. Then we have a really good shot of re-unifying Ireland. Much and all as I’d like that, the potential negatives are just too great.

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WorldbyStorm - April 19, 2016

That’s a genuinely horrible prospect you point to gendjinn and all too likely.

I’m a lot more eurosceptical than I ever expected to be – though a strong advocate of the left (by which I mean the left of what terms itself social democracy) working the EU institutionally and as a space for activism across and between its member states. If this is as far as it goes in terms of integration while still continuing to exist (outside a socialist context) I won’t weep. But it is like you and Jim and Michael say, it really is a case of no good options but less worse ones.

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Michael Carley - April 19, 2016

Can you imagine if a Labour leader with the credibility of Blair, or even Burnham, had the job of making the EU case …?

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WorldbyStorm - April 19, 2016

+1

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gendjinn - April 19, 2016

The EU is a tool. It’s been very successful at stopping wars between the european states. Given where we are now by treaty we need to use that tool to achieve our objectives.

We are in a period of change. The last 35 years of capitalist grinding is now cutting into the bone. From OWS to Syriza the people are trying to reform the system from within. Look at the age demos, the people voting left are not going to stop as they age. Their problems are not being addressed.

Look at how close a socialist Jew is running Hillary Clinton in the US. A conscientious objector, on film praising Daniel Ortega and Castro in the 80s. And he whomps very GOP contender in the GE.

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5. benmadigan - April 19, 2016

The US doesn’t want the UK to leave the EU – I believe Mr Obama is about to make a speech to that effect when he visits the UK shortly .

If however, the UK votes to Leave, Ireland stands to gain hugely as the only English speaking portal into the EU.

Since a Leave vote could also signal a UK break-up (see Scotland) Ireland will need to be doubly alert, cool-headed and strategic in her response.

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PaddyM - April 19, 2016

If however, the UK votes to Leave, Ireland stands to gain hugely as the only English speaking portal into the EU.

There are no shortage of good English speakers in the Netherlands, Sweden or Denmark, to name three mainland countries off the top of my head. All three are closer to mainland European markets, and for any tangible products being exported, they’re not going to have to be transported through the UK in the event of a trade war.

The danger is that we get lots of brass-plate operations centred in Dublin while manufacturing industry (and in particular, Irish-owned manufacturing industry) gets caught in the crossfire of a trade war.

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WorldbyStorm - April 19, 2016

That’s a very real possibility PM.

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6. sonofstan - April 19, 2016

If, as I suspect, Brexit is defeated by a roughly similar margin as we saw in the Scottish referendum, I reckon Cameron is still toast and UKIP will benefit from defections from the Tories, the press will cry treason at what will be seen as ‘lies’ from the city and the treasury and things will get very nasty.

….and if it’s defeated by the ‘celtic’ fringe, but carried in England….

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WorldbyStorm - April 19, 2016

Yes. That’s going to be very tricky indeed. Cameron is much diminished though entertainingly (in a way) more from his own financial doings than the issue itself. Mind you hearing Gove today going on about the finest health service, finest army, finest broadcasters in the world was nauseating in the extreme.

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sonofstan - April 19, 2016

It’ll unleash a democratic revolution he says. Because that’s what Tories stand for, right?

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WorldbyStorm - April 19, 2016

Lower than vermin. It never changes.

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gendjinn - April 19, 2016

Polls seem to have it neck and neck with 10% to 15% undecided. That’s not many undecided two months out.

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