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Jeremy Corbyn: This cannot be happening… April 19, 2016

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.

UK Polling Report continues its indefatigable coverage of polls in that state. And what’s this? Why a YouGov/Times poll from late last week which has Labour ahead of the Tories.

Huh. That’s not right is it? Well, yeah, it is actually:

Topline voting intention was CON 31%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 17%, GRN 3%. The poll follows a torrid few weeks for the Conservative party – a badly received budget, IDS’s resignation, the Tata steelworks and the week long fuss over David Cameron’s tax affairs. All of that has occured against the backdrop of the party arguing with itself over Europe and saying very little about any other issue. It’s always difficult to link a drop in support in the polls to specific events, but there are plenty of plausible reasons for a fall.

A later ComRes poll has the Tories ahead by 5% – 35% to 30% but as UKPR notes ComRes polls are consistently the most favourable to the Tories due to weighting.

Look, polls are variable, snapshots, but even for one J. Corbyn’s LP to be making these sort of strides hasn’t been part of the narrative that the press in the UK and many what one might over-kindly term post-left commentators have put about.

Meanwhile Brexit news. 50% for remain, 50% for leave in the YouGov/Times poll. Turnout will be all, though some analyses suggest that it’s not quite as tight.

Interestingly guess whose figures are increasing on that issue though articulating a remain message?

…the only person whose figures have increased is Jeremy Corbyn, who with 28% trust is now more trusted on Europe than Cameron.

No, no, that can’t be right either. Or the fact that Osborne ‘lags behind Corbyn on the question of who would make the best PM’.


1. dublinstreams - April 19, 2016

pftt who will these people actually vote for come next election?


WorldbyStorm - April 19, 2016

As gendjinn notes, with splits in the right vote that opens up some very interesting prospects ahead. it certainly weakens the Tories in advance of the next election. Were you to ask me to put money on it I would think diminished Tory party will return to power, but… it’s more contingent than I expected, and to be honest that’s not even my main point. The fact is that there was near total uniformity of antagonism to Corbyn from the off and an overt belief that he could never cut it, would always be in the shadow of the Tories, etc, etc. Michael White of the Guardian was practically the only one to say, hold on a minute, this guy may look a lot more attractive twelve months from now. Keegan too in the Observer. But bar that the new Labour great and the good and many others burning their party cards, etc etc. So election aside he clearly isn’t torpedoing the LP, it isn’t regarded as a laughing stock and that suggests that the road back to power isn’t quite as long as was hitherto predicted.


2. gendjinn - April 19, 2016

Month of hell for Cameron and this tepid lead is all Corbyn can manage? Pshaw, he’ll never be prime minister.

Liked by 1 person

3. gendjinn - April 19, 2016

But seriously, that CON 31% and UKIP 17% really scare me.


WorldbyStorm - April 19, 2016

It’s amazing, and depressing. Sonofstan and I were only saying that in the last few years something curious has happened in the UK, a sort of bitterness that has manifested in politics.


Michael Carley - April 19, 2016

I’m not seeing that in person but I socialize in a fairly lefty bubble, if I’m honest with myself. There is certainly a nasty edge to a lot of what is said publicly, especially at local level.


gendjinn - April 19, 2016

It is depressing.

People got shafted in 2000, and then again in 2008. They are angry.

There are vested interests that don’t want the anger to be pointed at those responsible.

But there’s something else, I am reminded of Kubrick’s ban on Clockwork Orange being shown in the UK.


Gewerkschaftler - April 20, 2016

But WBS – that’s not just the case in the UK.

It’s a general pattern – look at the elections in the US for instance, or the coup against Rousseff in Brazil, the vicious nature of the politics of the AfD here etc. etc.

Class war is back with a vengeance and the ruling class has an interest in distracting people in the direction of immigration and xenophobia.


gendjinn - April 20, 2016

Back? It never stopped, there was just a brief intermission.


Michael Carley - April 20, 2016

One side stopped fighting it for a while.

Liked by 1 person

gendjinn - April 20, 2016

Too bleedin’ true.

Liked by 1 person

Michael Carley - April 19, 2016

We shouldn’t have to be grateful for first past the post …


4. 6to5against - April 19, 2016

Another tory majority would require a gov’t party to maintain or increase its vote share for two parliaments in a row. Has that ever happened in the UK? And a split party pursuing an austerity agenda?

Surely the likely outcome is a hung parliament. And I’m optimistic that with some sensible negotiations an LP/SNP/??? govt could be formed. There would be apoplectic rage in some quarters, no doubt, but that doesn’t mean it wont happen.


5. Gewerkschaftler - April 20, 2016

The Blairites must be spitting bricks… 🙂


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