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And speaking of Independents… April 21, 2016

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.

FF up to 26%, FG down to 23%, that is +4 and -7 respectively, SF 17% +2, Independent alliance 8% +3, Independents 10%,  LP and AAAPBP both on 4% the latter down 1%, GP and WP on 3%, SDs on 2%, Renua 1%. 

Compare and contrast with the first SBP poll after the election as noted by Adrian Kavanagh way back then:

Independents and Others 29% – including Social Democrats 5%, Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 4%, Renua 2%, Green Party 3%, Independent Alliance 5%, Other Independents 9% –, Fine Gael 27%, Fianna Fail 25%, Sinn Fein 15%, Labour Party 4%.

If anything and granted it’s within the MOE, Independent and Other support is firming up.

Why are the independents and others doing so relatively well in the polls? It’s a useful question given the uniformity of opinion amongst the supposed great and the good in relation to the matter. There was Michael O’Leary lambasting those who would vote for them, here was Matt Cooper doing likewise all but demanding a second election at which the parties would predominate.

That the will of some of the electorate was to vote for Independents and Other seems to be forgotten in all this. An inconvenience at best – something very different at worst. To be dismissed in either instance.

But I think the answer is two-fold. They are doing exactly what they were voted in to do. For those on the left, Independents and Others have, almost overwhelmingly, refused to engage in government formation. And why not, they don’t have the votes to form a left government and on principle they will not work with FG or FF. For those on the right, those Independents have, by contrast been engaged in that process.

Their respective voters will most likely applaud them for these radically divergent courses and tend to feel supportive of them. Now, granted, once it gets down to the nitty gritty, FF-gene pool Independents voting for FG, that’s a different matter. But so far so good.

And, moreover, for the most part the Independents, of whatever stripe, have avoided egregious localism. It is quite something to see the not exactly coherent, but more so than might be expected, blocs of independents on the right. Those on the left aren’t that interested in same.

What of those who have been part involved in government formation. Well, difficult to see them losing support over it, though they’ve seemed to keep their heads down, perhaps wisely. Who can tell what the response of the electorate may be in these volatile times.


1. dublinstreams - April 21, 2016

still wondering if they do polls based on the number of candidates? if its actually possible to vote for the party in your constituency


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