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Assembly /UK Elections open thread May 6, 2016

Posted by irishelectionliterature in Uncategorized.
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As requested by Joe …..
Any news/thoughts on the Assembly elections in Northern Ireland as well as the Welsh, Scottish Assembly and other votes that took place in the UK yesterday.

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1. Joe - May 6, 2016

The Irish Indo are reporting that Labour have done badly in England, Scotland and Wales. Terribly in Scotland and less so in England and Wales. As usual right winger Labour members being trotted out to denounce Corbyn.
What’s the more nuanced take from the CLR’s UK-based posters?

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2. entdinglichung - May 6, 2016

it seems that they’re performing well in London, additionally, a landslide win in Exeter

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FergusD - May 6, 2016

Fewer losses foir Labout than “predicted” is what I have seen reported, grudgingly by the BBC. Scotland isn’t good but is a long term trend (from Labour to SNP). Given all the crap about anti-semitism in the Labour Party it isn’t a bad result.

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amaodhán - May 6, 2016

Labour in Scotland have coped increasingly poorly with devolution, with increased support for independence and with the blossoming of the SNP. They no longer have the confidence of the people, and what common touch they had, they’ve lost. I know it might shock people here to regard a Labour party, of all things, as out of touch!

A poor first outing for the RISE alliance. How to get the more left-leaning SNP voters to feel secure in jumping ship to a party polling so low is a big question for them.

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3. Michael Carley - May 6, 2016

Women’s Equality Party in their first run out are ahead of Galloway for London Mayor.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2016/may/05/uk-election-results-tracker-2016

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4. CL - May 6, 2016

“Leanne Wood, the leader of the Welsh nationalists, Plaid Cymru, achieved the shock of the night when she won the Rhondda constituency seat from Leighton Andrews, a Labour stalwart and minister in the last administration. Plaid took 12 seats, becoming the second party”
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/06/labour-wales-plaid-cymru-takes-rhondda-plaid-cymru

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Gewerkschaftler - May 6, 2016

Welsh people have elected a certain Neil Hamilton (remember him?) as a UKIP assembly member.

No better man.

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CMK - May 6, 2016

Showing your age there GW!🙂

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Gewerkschaftler - May 6, 2016

Previous incarnation😉, honest.

That Marie Antoinette! Remember her?

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5. The Deity - May 6, 2016

It’ll be interesting to see whom the SNP choose as coalition partners.

Definitely neither Tories nor Labour, I’d say. Most likely Lib Dems.

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amaodhán - May 6, 2016

I’d presume that the SNP’ll come to an agreement with the Greens instead of the Lib Dems.

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Gewerkschaftler - May 6, 2016

Quite possibly.

I don’t know the Greens in Scotland. Are they at all radical in the social sense? Or are the Eamon Ryan types?

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Ed - May 6, 2016

Their positioning has been further to the left than the Irish Greens, I think; I won’t speak for their substance. They supported the independence campaign, which would make them a better fit for the SNP (the Lib Dems brandished a last-minute threat to lead the Orkneys and Shetlands into a Bolivian-style secession campaign, taking the North Sea oil with them).

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amaodhán - May 6, 2016

I’m too young for this to be a rhetorical question, but how radical, or shapeless, did Ryan’s Greens appear pre-2007? The answer might be similar, we’ll see.

Anyway, they’re the other pro-independence party, they’ve worked with the SNP on the YES campaign, their six seats are plenty for a majority and I’d imagine that they’re compatible enough in policy with the SNP’s broad-church.

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Gewerkschaftler - May 6, 2016

We’ll see.

But never trust a Hippie sorry Green with anything to do with political economy, labour laws, social security etc. etc.

They’re good on windmills and food quality though.

Sorry that’s a bit cynical but anyone who lived the the FF/Green government in Ireland of the SPD/Green governments in Germany is inclined to be that way.

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Gewerkschaftler - May 6, 2016

Oh and the Greens just love the idea of electric cars in Baden-Württemburg where their Realo idol Kretschmann is about to go into government with the CDU.

Even though most of the energy use of an electric car goes into its manufacture. Fuckwits. Sorry – the idea of Greens in government has this effect on me.

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6. irishelectionliterature - May 6, 2016

Eamonn McCann and Gerry Carroll both look to be in with decent chances of seats from the tallies.

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Joe - May 6, 2016

Just saw a video on Facebook of comrade Carroll being hoisted high at the count centre by red flag waving comrades. Elected! Great to see.

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irishelectionliterature - May 6, 2016

Yeah Carroll topped the poll too.
McCann in a fight for the last seat in Foyle http://elections.irishnews.com/constituency.php?cid=7

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sonofstan - May 6, 2016

That’s brilliant.

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Pasionario - May 6, 2016

Has McCann ever been elected to anything before? He must have been a candidate on dozens of occasions by now. I look forward to his maiden speech.

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7. sonofstan - May 6, 2016

Sadiq Khan ahead in London?

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Gewerkschaftler - May 6, 2016

Well ahead and will almost certainly win, apparently.

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Aonrud ⚘ - May 6, 2016

I got a fright when I saw this.

It’s vote so far of course, but briefly alarming.

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8. Gewerkschaftler - May 6, 2016

For all the Labour under Corbyn bashing, the targeted anti-semitism-missiles and Livingstone’s massive Godwin, Labour seems to have increased its vote by 2% since 2015.

Nothing much to write home about but not the disaster the Guardian and the Blairites were hoping for.

And London will probably get its first Mayor of Pakistani/Muslim ancestry by a significant majority.

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9. sonofstan - May 6, 2016

Great news on Khan – if only because it’s not Goldsmith

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sonofstan - May 7, 2016

Goldsmith’s final tally almost exactly equals his FPV + the UKIP total

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10. Ed - May 6, 2016

Not a bad analysis here from Paul Mason:

View story at Medium.com

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11. Ed - May 6, 2016

And a decent one from Gary Younge, while the rest of the Guardianistas try to hide their disappointment at Labour’s performance and do their best to spin it as a disaster anyway:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/06/doom-merchants-corbyn-viable-leader-labour#comment-73729823

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12. gendjinn - May 6, 2016

Stormont looks like SF -1, SDLP -2, Al -1, DUP +1, IND +3 going by the transfer patterns of 2011. Where these are wrong will indicate change in transfer pattern. Belfast South & West, Foyle, Lagan Valley and Upper Bann are the constituencies that changed MLAs (so far),

Looks like only McCann or Closky wins in Foyle. Bummer.

Phil Flanagan looks to be out and Alex Attwood’s chair is getting a vigourous, active polishing.

Majority of independent vote is transferring back to SDLP/SF, a chunk nowhere and the rest to AL and Unionist candidates.

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gendjinn - May 6, 2016

D’Hondt on those numbers would yield ministries: DUP 3; SF 2; UUP 1; SDLP 0. Then there is the Justice ministry to be sorted out.

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gendjinn - May 7, 2016

So Ford held on and DUP missed out in W Bel – so scratch the DUP/AL +/- 1.

The SDLP needs 13 to get a ministry but they’re heading for 12.

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gendjinn - May 7, 2016

SDLP managed to pull it out so the ministries are 2 DUP, 2 SF, 1 UUP, 1 SDLP.

Eastwood may gain some breathing space, if he’d gotten 12 he’d likely be out as leader.

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