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That poll on Friday May 16, 2016

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Having thought about it a bit more, once again one of the major features was the dip in the vote for Independents. 4% from non-aligned Independents, 2% from the Independent Alliance. What does this represent? Antipathy towards the machinations of the latter in joining the government? Impatience at the former for – as some would perceive it – blocking government formation? Or something else entirely? The fact that it was the only movement outside the margin of error surely signifies something, but perhaps it is so early in the life of the government that we cannot tell which. Does this, though offer some solace to Fine Gael in relation to their unwanted new Ministers? Perhaps

Then again the poll, as IEL pointed out, offers neither FG, FF or indeed the LP any good news whatsoever. All are static or falling. Granted it is within the MOE, but that alone is fascinating. About two years ago I began to think that the polls showing weakening FG and LP support and still moribund FF support were probably just about right. The large cohort of voters going for Independents was unusual, but I had a sense that it was probably baked in at that point, and so the fact that so many Ind/Others were eventually elected did not come as a major surprise.

And it seems that even after the tortuous process to build an administration that support is still mostly baked in, albeit with a weakening on the part of the Independents. Perhaps that is due to them getting involved in government formation, and thereby seeming perhaps less clearly above politics as some have managed to present themselves over the years (indeed how that impacts on some very high profile Independents over the next while will be fascinating to watch).

The broader polling data – near enough 50/50 confidence in the government, as well as a good 45% not believing it will last a year is fascinating too. Time will tell, but I think it might just get to that point and a bit further. Particularly if polls like the latest one continue to appear. After all, what is in it for the ‘larger’ parties if an election is called and held that essentially underpins the status quo. Switching out IA for SD or GP TDs doesn’t materially affect matters (assuming the later are so unwise as to go into government).

Comments»

1. irishelectionliterature - May 16, 2016

A lot will depend on what the Independents in government deliver locally. If Ross delivers the reopening of Stepaside Garda Station. McGrath the facilities in Beaumont he was looking for and so on. …. then they may be thanked by the electorate. However if the government is awful, makes a raft of unpopular decisions then the Indos could be tosst.
Still don’t think FF, FG and Labour have much they can offer the electorate to win support back. … we’d have had that second election if they thought they could take all those Indo seats.

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2. dmoc - May 16, 2016

I wonder what those who voted INDY actually wanted the Indies to do. Go in with FF? They’d have lost some support. Go in with FG? They’d have lost some support. A left gov was never on the cards with current numbers (and they’d have lost some support if they could have done so). So stay in opposition, and another election with the same results? Then what? Jesus, at least give the IA 8 weeks to soil the sheets, THEN abandon them.

Kenny really seems deranged; I wonder if he’ll go full Thatcher. According to Irish Times, he wants to go full term. Worse, “A man” stopped him on the street to shake his hand, apparently. This time “a man” didn’t have two pints, but I suspect that “a man” was just as delusionary as the other “a mans” who’ve been whispering in his ear.

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/enda-kenny-says-he-will-serve-full-term-as-taoiseach-1.2649518

QUOTE: He added: “A man stopped me on the street the other day, he said: ‘I would like to shake your hand’. I said ‘Why?’ He said: ‘For volunteering to run our country. I find it astonishing that so many people who put their names forward for Dáil Éireann do not want to have anything to do with Government or have anything to do with making decisions’.”

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WorldbyStorm - May 16, 2016

It is bizarre, no question about it. It’s difficult not to think we have a government because of one man’s wish to be Taoiseach again… I know it has to be more complex than that…but…

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dmoc - May 16, 2016

FG could have finished FF forever by voting MM for Taoiseach. Don’t even negotiate, just whoosh them in. Imagine that lot trying to run the country with 43 TDs and a few genepool shysters from Kerry and assorted backwaters.

Marinate that lot for 9 to 18 months, pull ’em down, for good this time.

But Enda wanted to be the first FG Taoiseach to be re-elected blah blah blah.

Same mad logic in Labour 5 years ago. Why not let FG go in solo for a couple of years (if they can do it with 50 seats, they could have done it with 75, FFS). Same thing; Labour is the responsible opp, then when FG pulled Irish water, they could have pulled the plug (In the national interest, you understand), then Lab would have gone into that GE with 37 seats, and easily hit the 50s or higher.

Do those opposition chairs give them anal probes and/or electric shocks? DO they smell of pooh? Why is the idea of waiting 1 or 2 years such an anathema to them?

Me Fein, I guess.

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WorldbyStorm - May 16, 2016

Yeah, that’s a brilliant thought. FF would have been screwed!

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dmoc - May 16, 2016

Enda would have been too though. And Enda comes first.

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WorldbyStorm - May 16, 2016

I think that amazing as it seems that is what much of what we’ve seen is about.

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3. Alibaba - May 16, 2016

When it comes to Independents or Endapendents …

“The Luas strike is not something which a minister … can or should get involved in.” So said Shane Ross because Transdev is “a private sector company in a dispute with its staff.” Fancy that!

http://www.thejournal.ie/shane-ross-luas-strike-2769696-May2016/

Ross is the Minister of a department that gave this contract to Transdev. You can’t escape from that. And by the way, word has it that ten per cent of Dublin Bus routes are out for being taken over by a private contractor. It’s probably out for tendering now. Ross won’t be so shy about this development.

Minister of State for Health, Finian McGrath was on radio today saying that his comments about smoking are his “private opinion”. That’s despicable. As we know he will do whatever Fine Gael tells him to do, although he will plead that he has to accept “collective ministerial responsibility”.

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WorldbyStorm - May 16, 2016

That’s an interesting line re ‘private opinion’.

Saw that about the bus routes. Agree, don’t think he’d be overly concerned about it.

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