That poll on Friday

Having thought about it a bit more, once again one of the major features was the dip in the vote for Independents. 4% from non-aligned Independents, 2% from the Independent Alliance. What does this represent? Antipathy towards the machinations of the latter in joining the government? Impatience at the former for – as some would perceive it – blocking government formation? Or something else entirely? The fact that it was the only movement outside the margin of error surely signifies something, but perhaps it is so early in the life of the government that we cannot tell which. Does this, though offer some solace to Fine Gael in relation to their unwanted new Ministers? Perhaps

Then again the poll, as IEL pointed out, offers neither FG, FF or indeed the LP any good news whatsoever. All are static or falling. Granted it is within the MOE, but that alone is fascinating. About two years ago I began to think that the polls showing weakening FG and LP support and still moribund FF support were probably just about right. The large cohort of voters going for Independents was unusual, but I had a sense that it was probably baked in at that point, and so the fact that so many Ind/Others were eventually elected did not come as a major surprise.

And it seems that even after the tortuous process to build an administration that support is still mostly baked in, albeit with a weakening on the part of the Independents. Perhaps that is due to them getting involved in government formation, and thereby seeming perhaps less clearly above politics as some have managed to present themselves over the years (indeed how that impacts on some very high profile Independents over the next while will be fascinating to watch).

The broader polling data – near enough 50/50 confidence in the government, as well as a good 45% not believing it will last a year is fascinating too. Time will tell, but I think it might just get to that point and a bit further. Particularly if polls like the latest one continue to appear. After all, what is in it for the ‘larger’ parties if an election is called and held that essentially underpins the status quo. Switching out IA for SD or GP TDs doesn’t materially affect matters (assuming the later are so unwise as to go into government).