Seat projections on foot of the last poll June 7, 2016Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
So much media, so much news. So this missed me, or I missed it. Adrian Kavanagh’s projections on foot of the latest SBP/REDC poll. Pretty interesting too given the thoughts about that poll earlier in the week. I view anything that has movements up or down within the margin of error as being only of use in terms of broad party support. And the conclusion anyone would come to from it would be that the situation remains much as it has since the election.
And Kavanagh’s projections seem to bear this out too. The poll ratings were:
Independents and Others 27% – including Social Democrats 4%, Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 5%, Renua < 1%, Green Party 2%, Independent Alliance 4%, Other Independents 11% – Fianna Fail 26%, Fine Gael 26%, Sinn Fein 15%, Labour Party 6%.
And from this his model suggests the following outcomes:
Fianna Fail 48, Fine Gael 50, Sinn Fein 26, Labour Party 4, Anti Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 7, Social Democrats 4, Green Party 1, Independents 18.
Consider that that would see FF jump by 8 seats. FG stay where it was. SF gain a couple. The LP lose three. AAA-PBP gain 1, the SDs – 1. the GP lose 1 and if 18 Independents were returned that would constitute a loss of about 5 Independents by my reckoning.
Here’s a thought. I’ve been very resistant to the idea that the LP could vanish entirely. It seems to me to have a base, however fractured and unloved, that would see it through. But one has to wonder if an LP that came back with 4, or indeed fewer (read Kavanagh’s thoughts in the text and he seems to suggest that it could come back with none on a particularly bad day), would be in any shape to continue. The GP did, it is true, survive, but that’s a different sort of party, smaller, and addresses a somewhat different constituency or constituencies of voters. In other words another election could be truly disastrous to the LP.
Looking through the projections intriguing to see an Ind seat loss in Dublin Central and an Other gain – would that be SD?
As to the demise of the Independents, well clearly they’d take a hit this time around, but as he himself notes, they are able to attract transfers from across the spectrum. No small trick and something that saw Independents do particularly well this year. 5 seats down and that would be a good result.
Now, all this is far far too early in the electoral cycle – usually – to be worth anything. But here’s the thing. What is this electoral cycle. An election in two years or two months or whenever means that functionally we’re in a constant pre-election mode.
That said, who of the larger parties would risk running to the country on this outcome?