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Brexit/Bremain Polling June 10, 2016

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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The FT Brexit poll tracker was Stay 45%, Leave 43% when I wrote this. It’s unscientific. But there we have it.

The Economist Brexit poll tracker… 43 Leave/42 Remain, but that was from earlier in the week.

And here’s the wiki page on it.

Some intriguing volatility in the polls, swinging between 52% Remain and 48% Leave (a majority of those polled in each case). What’s odd is how telephone and online polls seem to have different outcomes.

Check out the Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland polling data. Almost certainly Scotland and Northerrn Ireland will deliver Remains. Wales. Slightly harder to call?

Whatever about the referendum itself the accuracy of polling will be fascinating to see.

Interesting listening to the Guardian political podcast the point was made that even a narrow defeat of Leave could really hurt Cameron in relation to the Tory party. Heheh…

Mind you, another point made was that no one was making a case for Europe as distinct from making a case against leaving. There’s room there for a real left vision of Europe – one rooted in internationalism (for example, how to build links with a UK outside the EU is something that has to be considered. It’s not going to be made easier if the dominant narrative is one where the UK is apart from Europe). But perhaps in the febrile environment of UK politics that’s simply not feasible.

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1. benmadigan - June 10, 2016

some more polling stats and thoughts on possible outcomes here https://eurofree3.wordpress.com/2016/06/05/post-brexit-bye-bye-uk/

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2. paulculloty82 - June 10, 2016
3. roddy - June 10, 2016

Was talking to a friend who works all over Britain in the building trade yesterday.He says immigration is THE big issue and normally sensible people are expressing anti immigrant views and see the referendum as a vehicle to have their views implemented. If these people turn out to vote they will swing it for Brexit. Those on the left who are for Brexit fail to understand that if they get it, it will be for all the wrong reasons.

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WorldbyStorm - June 11, 2016

Yeah, very much agree roddy, and it will increase the toxicity in the British polity at a time when, for example, having been a fairly frequent traveller to Britain both recently and in the past it is clear that the broader background noise about immigration, and reactionary attitudes to that and to those one welfare, etc, are now much much greater than in the past. This isn’t a case of a society about to shift left, it’s one where there is already a reactionary moment that this will enable and extend, where psychologically the sort of Mexican wall that Trump talks about is already up and this is just making higher. And it plays into incoherent but real long lived attitudes of empire, superiority to others, isolationism, etc – ones which by the by the BLP was no slouch in adopting too and working with at times in the past – ‘a patriotic party’ indeed.

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FergusD - June 11, 2016

Spot on Roddy.

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WorldbyStorm - June 11, 2016

+1 excellent point Roddy, last time I was in uk I met people talking about ‘chavs’ who would otherwise consider themselves very enlightened, it was disgusting but telling.

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4. roddy - June 11, 2016

It never fails to amaze me how people who appear “nice” on the surface lose all sense of reason when immigration comes up.Last year I did a job for a retired couple in North Down where all the “nice people” live.Suffice to say that in the context of Northern demographics,my home area would be a million miles from the area in which the couple live.They asked me where I was from and to my surprise the husband who had been a contractor knew a number of my neighbours (all building workers and SF voters to a man!).He obviously was not sectarian and told me to make sure to tell them all that he was enquiring about them.His wife asked me in for a meal but when I said I was in a hurry she made me a packed lunch to eat on the way home. However before I left ,one of their neighbours arrived and they began to converse about the fact that the assembly had agreed to accept Syrian refugees.They were vastly against it “we have bother enough looking after our own” was one comment that stuck out.I pretended not to hear their conversation but quickly left with a totally different opinion of the couple..These “nice” people who had no problem with “catholics” from one of the most Republican areas in the North were totally unmoved by the sight of the bodies of refugee children washing up on beaches.

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sonofstan - June 11, 2016

It’s deeply depressing. I don’t to hear that kind of stuff in Ireland, but get it all the time here, even as I remind them that I am one of them immigrants myself. It may just be that Irish people are more aware of how it sounds

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sonofstan - June 11, 2016

And what’s even mire depessing is that people on the left, or at least in Labour, treat this ‘concern’ as inevitable. It’s not, and I never tire of pointing out thecontrast between the Clacton by election and the one in DSW the day after, in a area with a much higher proportion of recent immigrants than on the Essex coast, and just as working class

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WorldbyStorm - June 11, 2016

+1 Rather than combat it, pointing out how essential immigration is, they do the opposite. And here’s the thing. I’m not a proponent of infinitely open borders. There are contexts where excessive (and I stress excessive – in most cases immigration in my view is a positive and in all contexts societies have to be open to people entering them) inflows are problematic. But I always remember when in discussions on P.ie about this with anti-immigration people that they couldn’t quantify this, or even make any effort to research what are the limits in a society. Hard to feel that their sentiment was driven by anything much more than antagonism to immigrants and the other than the supposedly pragmatic concerns they on occasion put out.

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5. Silas Flannery - June 11, 2016

I’m Irish and have been living in the UK since 2008. I’m going to vote remain, but I know that there are many legitimate left-wing reasons for voting to leave.

Many of the arguments for leaving the EU put forward by the left are convincing to a point, but I agree with Roddy and WorldbyStorm that a vote for Brexit will not be for the reasons highlighted by the left and will not mark a shift to the left in UK politics. Rather, I fear it will herald a move to more reactionary politics focused on immigration, as it will have been proven to be a massive vote winner if the leave side wins the referendum.

Also groups like Left Leave don’t help themselves by retweeting this type of little-Englander rubbish: https://twitter.com/BolsoverBeast/status/741522187568459776.

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WorldbyStorm - June 11, 2016

Just to extend your point it is very clear how some of the most reactionary elements in UK society see this as a massive opportunity.

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6. oliverbohs - June 11, 2016

If I were Scottish though I’d be wondering if England’s “difficulty” is my own country’s “opportunity”. How that’d affect my hypothetical vote is another matter!

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WorldbyStorm - June 11, 2016

If I were Scottish and in England a yes vote makes sense given what you suggest but in Scotland itself it has to be no because otherwise it reinforces the sense of the UK as a whole leaving.

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7. paulculloty82 - June 11, 2016

It now appears yesterday’s poll was a total outlier, one tonight puts Remain two points ahead, while Leave lead by one in another.

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WorldbyStorm - June 11, 2016

Yeah, an online poll which tend to overstate Leave. It’s going to be close I think but.

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8. Jolly Red Giant - June 12, 2016
9. paulculloty82 - June 13, 2016

Now prepared to call it for Brexit – two more polls tonight:

Remain 45%
Leave 50%

Remain 47%
Leave 53%

The question that could well be posed in the aftermath is whether Labour have appealed sufficiently to working-class voters?

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WorldbyStorm - June 13, 2016

Definitely getting close. Snowball effect? Still, a week or so to go, we’ll see.

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WorldbyStorm - June 13, 2016
botheredbarney - June 14, 2016

“…whether Labour have appealed sufficiently to working-class voters…” But surely New Labour during the past two decades has lost touch with the English working class? How can Labour leader appeals then fall on attentive ears with regard to EU membership?

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10. sonofstan - June 14, 2016

y’allprobably know this but it had passed me by; IBEC have posters at the airport beseeching incoming Brits with ‘Don’t Go – Let’s Work Together’

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WorldbyStorm - June 14, 2016

Urghhhh that would make me waver the opposite direction were I there. BTW do you think the labour love bombing will work, I’m quite enjoying Corbyns approach

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Michael Carley - June 14, 2016

Saw that last time I was on the mainland. Could backfire.

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